FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Euro zone inflation accelerated more than expected in October and could still pick up further in the coming months, bolstering the case for caution in European Central Bank interest rate cuts as price growth is not yet fully tamed.
Inflation in the 20 countries sharing the euro currency accelerated to 2.0% from 1.7% in September mostly on higher food and energy costs, coming above expectations for 1.9% in a Reuters poll of economists.
A more closely watched figure which strips out volatile food and energy prices meanwhile held steady at 2.7%, above forecasts for 2.6%, Eurostat said on Thursday.
Inflation has fallen quickly since hitting double digit territory two years ago and most economists see it back at the European Central Bank’s 2% target basis sometime in the first half of next year after some volatility in the final months of 2024.
This relatively quick return to target has also fuelled a debate in recent weeks, with some ECB officials arguing there was a growing risk that price growth will actually fall below target and the ECB will have to start stimulating growth to prevent excessively low inflation.
Such a dim outlook could even force the ECB to accelerate the pace of rate cuts and bolster the case for a bigger than usual step in December, some said.
This argument has yet to gain significant traction, however, and conservatives, or policy hawks in central bank-speak, have pushed back, arguing for measured, incremental steps because a long list of factors could still push prices higher.
A key concern is that inflation in services, the biggest single item in the consumer price basket remains way too fast, holding steady at 3.9%.
Wage growth is also faster than the 3% rate the ECB considers consistent with its target and households are sitting on ample savings, which could bolster consumer savings and overall growth.
The labour market also remains tight with the jobless rate holding steady at an all-time low of 6.3% in September, separate Eurostat data showed on Thursday.
The policy doves’ argument that overall growth is simply too weak to sustain 2% inflation was also dealt a blow this week when fresh data showed the economy expanding at 0.4% in the third quarter, twice as fast as expected, with Germany, France and Spain all showing surprising resilience.
But economists also appear to agree that no meaningful rebound in growth was likely and the euro zone will continue to grow at a lukewarm pace, below what is considered its potential.
That is why further ECB rate cuts are almost assured and no policymaker has challenged the need to move again on Dec. 12, suggesting that the step is largely a done deal, unless major data surprises alter the outlook.
Financial investors are now betting that the ECB’s 3.25% deposit rate could dip to 2% or possibly below that by the end of 2025.
The biggest uncertainty, however, is likely to be the U.S. election, policymakers say, since it could have far reaching implications for trade, growth and inflation which may require policy action further down the road.
(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Fall Meeting in Washington · Reuters
David Lawder Thu, October 24, 2024 at 2:06 PM EDT 4 min read:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on Thursday that the world is in danger of becoming mired in a low-growth, high-debt path that will leave governments with fewer resources to improve opportunities for their people and tackle climate change and other challenges.
The result is increasingly dissatisfied populations, Georgieva said during a press conference during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington.
The meetings are clouded by the looming Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, which raises the specter that Americans, stung by high inflation during Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration, could return Republican candidate Donald Trump to the White House, ushering in a new era of protectionist trade policies and trillions of dollars in new U.S. debt.
Dissatisfaction is not unique to the U.S., Georgieva said, despite the global economy showing some resilience in the face of threats from wars, weak demand in China, and the lagged effects of tight monetary policy.
“For most of the world, a ‘soft landing’ is in sight, but people are not feeling good about their economic prospects,” Georgieva said, referring to a scenario in which high inflation is tamed without a painful recession or large job losses. “Everybody I ask here, how is your economy? The answer is good. How is the mood of your people? The answer is not so good. Families are still hurting from high prices and global growth is anemic.”
The IMF on Tuesday released new economic forecasts showing that global GDP growth will decline slightly by 2029 to 3.1% from 3.2% this year, well below its 2000-2019 average of 3.8%, as current U.S. strength fades.
At the same time, the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor showed global government debt is set to top $100 trillion for the first time this year and continue rising as political sentiment increasingly favors more government spending and is resistant to tax increases. It also predicts that government debt as a share of GDP, now 93%, is set to reach 100% by 2030, exceeding its peak during the COVID pandemic.
“So here is the bottom line: the global economy is in danger of getting stuck on a low-growth, high-debt path,” Georgieva said. “That means lower incomes and fewer jobs. It also means lower government revenues, so less resources for families and to fight long-term challenges like climate change. These are anxious times with these problems in mind.”
Finance chiefs from G20 major economies separately expressed optimism for a soft landing, and urged resistance to protectionism.
“We observe good prospects of a soft landing of the global economy, although multiple challenges remain,” the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors said in a joint statement issued after a meeting on the sidelines of the meetings in Washington.
The communique did not mention Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, long a point of division for the G20, or Israel’s military conflicts with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza and the Iran-backed Hezbollah organization in Lebanon.
A separate statement issued by Brazil, which currently holds the G20 presidency, said members disagreed on whether the conflicts should be discussed within the group, but added that it would continue such talks among lower-level officials ahead of a G20 leaders summit in Rio de Janeiro in November.
CHINA’S PATH
Georgieva said that China’s growth could slow to “way below 4%” unless its government takes decisive action to shift its economic model towards consumer demand from exports and manufacturing investment.
After long maintaining Chinese growth forecasts at or above Beijing’s 5% target, the IMF this week cut China’s 2024 growth outlook to 4.8%, with a projection slowdown to 4.5% in 2025. China’s GDP grew at a 7.4% rate in 2014.
Georgieva said more details on China’s stimulus plans were needed to assess whether they would improve its outlook. The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday they have not seen anything from Beijing that would materially raise China’s domestic demand.
The IMF and World Bank meetings also have been marked by new worries about an escalation of the war in the Middle East, which was triggered a year ago by Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel.
A wider escalation of the conflict could increase spillovers to economies in the region, Georgieva said, including Egypt, which earlier this year won a $3 billion increase to its IMF loan program.
Georgieva said she will travel to Egypt in the next 10 days to assess economic conditions for possible further changes to the program amid a severe drop in the country’s Suez Canal revenues.
Jihad Azour, the director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, told a briefing that the size of the program was still appropriate, but Georgieva would assess the effectiveness of the country’s social protection programs in the current environment.
(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Paul Simao)
Last month, I spoke at Dr. Hans-Hermann Hoppe’s Property and Freedom Society conference in Bodrum, Turkey. My speech was titled ‘Understanding India,’ and I elaborated on the underlying mindset that drives the Indian psyche, its amorality, and its tendency toward irrational and magical thinking. I discussed how this mindset contributes to an inability to distinguish between right and wrong and between the depraved and the virtuous:
Here is a discussion that followed:
On Investments
I recently returned from a site visit in Japan with Irving Resources (IRV; $0.34). The company has signed a joint venture agreement with Newmont and Sumitomo. Despite the legal complexities across several jurisdictions, these companies’ commitment to establishing a JV underscores the significance they place on the Yamagano project. They are already drilling the third of a planned five-hole program, with each hole reaching a depth of 700 meters. Additionally, the company is preparing to begin drilling at the Omu project, which is set to start early next month, with the permit expected imminently.
I briefly discussed IRV in a recent interview (at the 10:27 minute mark):
I recently read an excellent book, THINK: Observations of a Generalist by Rodney Choate. In this book, Choate examines the common errors in people’s thinking that contribute to stubbornness and an unwillingness to change their opinions, even when faced with new information. His insights delve into the cognitive biases and mental blocks that lead to such rigid thinking. What makes the book particularly compelling is that some of Choate’s thoughts are refreshingly unique, offering perspectives I hadn’t encountered in other works on critical thinking.
Disclaimer: All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment, or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The sole purpose of these musings is to show my thinking process when analyzing a stock, not to provide any recommendations. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take resulting from anything you read here. Conduct your due diligence or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made based on any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Updated Sun, October 20, 2024 at 4:14 PM EDT 6 min read
So much for American exceptionalism when it comes to retirement.
The US earned just a C+ for its retirement system in the 16th annual Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, coming in 29th out of 48 countries. Since the index’s inception in 2009, the US retirement system has never surpassed a C+.
The big anchors on the American grade include concerns over pension funding and shortfalls in private retirement savings. Like most countries across the globe, the US retirement system must withstand the double whammy of dropping fertility rates and increasing life expectancy.
“It’s not just Americans, it’s a global problem,” Holly Verdeyen, Mercer’s US defined contribution leader, told Yahoo Finance. “The imbalance between retired and working people continues to grow…coupled with increasing lifespans.”
Only four countries — the Netherlands, Iceland, Denmark, and Israel — earned an A ranking for their retirement systems, providing key lessons on how to shore up our system. India came in last. Provisions from Secure 2.0 that go into effect next year could also address some of our shortcomings.
The problems in the US
The index examined more than 50 indicators to rank each country’s retirement system by adequacy, sustainability, and integrity. Overall, the researchers considered what benefits retirees receive now, if the system could last amid demographic changes, and if private retirement plans are regulated to encourage long-term confidence.
This year, the index score for the US decreased to 60.4 from 63.0, putting it in the same grade tier as the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Hong Kong, Spain, Colombia, and Saudi Arabia, though each of those countries had a higher overall score. The United States earned a C+ for adequacy and a C each for the sustainability and integrity of its retirement system.
Drilling down, the largest dilemmas for the US come from pensions and private retirement savings accounts, major sources of income for American retirees.
Let’s start with pensions, which are not nearly as prevalent as they were a generation ago. Still, 21% of workers have one through their employer.
A pension pays out a benefit for a certain amount of time, such as through the end of a person’s life, or, in some cases, even longer if a surviving spouse qualifies for continued benefits. Because people are living longer, those receiving benefits will be getting that money “for significantly longer than initially forecast today,” Verdeyen said. “That’s one thing.”
On top of that, pensions depend on workers to fund benefits to retirees. But thanks to declining birth rates, there are fewer workers contributing to these pension systems, leading to funding shortfalls that largely affect public-sector employees and workers in the few industries that still offer these retirement benefits.
The US earned a C+ for its retirement system in the 16th annual Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, coming in 29th out of 48 countries. (Photo: Getty Creative) · Steve Smith via Getty Images
What’s left in Americans’ retirement arsenal is savings in private retirement plans, primarily employer-sponsored plans like 401(k)s. But based on the most recent research, Americans are expected to outlive those savings by about 10 years, Verdeyen said.
So, people need to either save more or work longer, or both, she said. And they are working longer, on average, by two years. But they are also projected to live 4.4 years longer too.
“So life expectancy increases are more than double the average rise in retirement ages,” she said. “So this gap between how much people have saved and how much they need to fund an adequate retirement is going to continue to grow.”
Social Security, the federal program that all workers pay into throughout their working life, is the third pillar that supports Americans in retirement. Similar to pensions, Social Security is facing a funding problem because of the worker-to-retiree imbalance. Its reserve fund is projected to run out in 2033, at which point the social welfare program will only be able to pay out 79% of benefits, a costly cut for many seniors.
“This trend [of longer lifespans and lower birth rates] puts pressure on both the private retirement system and the publicly funded Social Security safety net,” Verdeyen said.
The Mercer report offers some straightforward ways to buttress the US retirement system. Americans could also take some best practices from the No. 1 retirement system in the world — the Netherlands.
To start, all US employers should incorporate the best features of a private retirement system, Verdeyen said, which include automatic enrollment, automatic escalation of a worker’s savings rate that would provide adequate income at retirement, and better education.
In the Netherlands, for example, it’s “quasi-mandatory” for employers to provide retirement plans. While the government doesn’t mandate it, industry unions do through collective bargaining agreements. All companies in an industry must abide by those agreements.
“The bigger point is that once an employer-sponsored retirement program is offered, employees in the Netherlands are automatically enrolled,” Verdeyen said. “So that makes participation in the Netherlands pretty much mandatory for a very large part of the workforce.”
Only four countries — the Netherlands, Iceland, Denmark, and Israel — earned an A ranking for their retirement systems. (Photo: Getty Creative) · Alexander Spatari via Getty Images
The Secure 2.0 Act, legislation President Joe Biden signed into law in 2023, aims to boost participation in the US by requiring employers with new 401(k) and 403(b) plans to automatically enroll their workers, starting in 2025. The legislation also includes auto-escalation of contributions.
“In that way, automatic enrollment is going to become mandatory for a large part of our new retirement plans, which over time, I think should improve our rating in the index in the US,” Verdeyen said.
The final fix is for employers to provide easy-to-implement ways to turn worker savings into a reliable stream of income. That could be as simple as embedding a payment feature into a retirement plan that pays out a monthly sum starting at a certain age to help people delay taking Social Security.
“If people delayed their Social Security benefit from age 67 to 70, it would be about a 24% increase in the Social Security retirement annuity payment that they would get,” Verdeyen said.
Employers could also offer lifetime income features in target-date funds, which is the default investment for most retirement plan participants. That would also alleviate concerns over outliving one’s retirement savings.
“The defined contribution system has really only focused on getting workers through to their point of retirement,” Verdeyen said. “But it has fallen short in helping workers get all the way through retirement.”
(Bloomberg) — Price action in some of the world’s most risk-sensitive assets is signaling concern that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lowering interest rates may have been premature — or may not be sustainable.
Since the Fed kicked off its long-anticipated loosening cycle on Sept. 18 with a cut of 50 basis points, double the median forecast, emerging-market assets have traded as if borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy will remain high. That’s left developing world assets in limbo, headed for another span of underperformance.
In little over a month, the Fed rate cut has been eclipsed by fresh risks that are keeping global investors shy on the asset class, overshadowing the gains that Fed easing cycles might usually be expected to bring. While the threats have taken different forms — higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, greater volatility in currency options — the underlying themes have been just two: the potential return of Donald Trump as US president and China’s inadequate stimulus measures.
That means that once again, traders in emerging markets are positioning defensively for an inflationary US economy and a deflationary Chinese one.
“We remain in a world with two potentially existential threats to EM – China weakness and Trump,” said Paul McNamara, investment director at Gam UK Ltd. in London. “A strong US economy without inflation is good for EM, but persistent inflation will not only postpone further cuts, but weigh on all risk assets into the medium term.”
Though there was an initial boost to emerging markets from the Fed move, it was first interrupted by strong US data that revived fears of resurgent inflation, and later comments by presidential candidate Trump that exacerbated them. The Republican nominee has put tariffs and protectionism at the center of his agenda. If implemented, that’s likely to raise consumer prices in the US and undermine demand for exports from the developing world, according to many economists.
“We’re just weeks away from a US election that might lead to a Trump economic assault on the biggest EM out there, China,” said Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at FIM Partners. “It’s close to a coin flip as to who wins the US election, and equally makes it hard to choose a local markets trade to like.”
Disappointed Again
Hedge funds have also been ramping up positions speculating on dollar gains against developing economies vulnerable to higher tariffs.
EM stocks, which briefly rebounded from a record low relative to US equities after the Fed decision, are heading back to that dubious honor. Local currencies and local-currency bonds are on course for their worst month since February 2023. Segments of the dollar-bond market, like long-duration and investment-grade, also continue to trail.
Bond investors have seen their returns stagnate in the month since the Fed decision. Their expectations for the developing world to follow the Fed are now being upended by central-bank caution, as policymakers from Indonesia to Hungary and Turkey decide to pause interest-rate cuts.
“Eventually EM local-currency bonds should benefit from global easing,” said Anders Faergemann, a senior portfolio manager at Pinebridge Investments. “However, from a total return perspective, the relief rally in the US dollar and domestic delays to monetary-policy easing may have triggered some profit-taking.”
The average yield on EM sovereign dollar bonds has edged higher by 9 basis points since Sept. 18, while the rate on local-currency bonds has also risen 9 basis points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Between the two groups, the latter is underperforming in dollar returns, with currency declines acting as an additional drag.
“Rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over China’s efforts to rescue domestic consumption, and event risk leading up to the US presidential election will also spark increased demands for a higher risk premium into year end,” Faergemann said.
Yield Curves
Strong US economic data have not only disrupted Fed monetary-policy bets but are also reshaping emerging-market yield curves. Within the dollar-bond market, investors are favoring short-duration bonds to long-duration bonds — an unlikely preference in an environment where falling rates are a consensus expectation. Bonds with a duration of more than 10 years have handed investors a loss of 3.6% since the Fed cut, while those of less than three years have given marginal gains.
As of Friday, swap traders were penciling in further reductions to their bets on Fed cuts in the remaining two meetings of the year. Citigroup Inc.’s Akshay Singal, global head of short-term interest-rate trading, told Bloomberg TV that the Fed is likely to cut rates by just 25 basis points, or even stay put, over the next few meetings. He said he doubted the Fed would have opted for a 50-basis-point cut in September if it had seen the strong jobs data before the meeting.
“The combination of US Treasury yields above 4% and a pickup in economic activity in the US have called into question the idea of the beginning of a Fed cutting cycle,” said Martin Bercetche, a hedge-fund manager at UK-based Frontier Road Ltd. “We might have had a false start last month.”
China Factor
For emerging-market stocks, the turbulence coming from the US economic and political landscape was just one of the problems. The wildest volatility in nine years has meanwhile gripped China as successive stimulus measures initially sparked a sharp equity rally, then ultimately failed to convince investors that they were enough to turn around the economy.
The EM equity benchmark, where China holds the biggest weighting, is once again trailing the S&P 500 Index, belying expectations that it would pull itself out of a seventh successive year of underperformance when the Fed started to cut rates.
The bruises of the past month have forced investors to reassess their exposure, and many are avoiding the sweeping EM-wide bets they’d recommended for the post-Fed era.
For the moment, the focus is on weathering the US election. With polls showing Trump is neck-and-neck with his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, a firmer view on EM has to wait. For Gam’s McNamara, there’s one scenario where the Fed-cut trades in emerging markets can begin to make money.
“A Harris win,” he said.
What to Watch
In Brazil, the mid-October inflation print could fuel bets on faster monetary tightening at November’s central-bank meeting
Russia’s central bank set to lift interest rates by 100 basis points, according to a Bloomberg survey
China’s banks are set to lower their loan prime rates, tracking the People’s Bank of China’s cuts to key rates near the end of September
South Korea’s GDP data will likely have rebounded in the third quarter
LAKE KARIBA, Zambia (AP) — Tindor Sikunyongana is trying to run a welding business which these days means buying a diesel generator with costly fuel he can’t always afford.
Like everyone in Zambia, Sikunyongana is facing a daily struggle to find and afford electricity during a climate-induced energy crisis that’s robbed the southern African country of almost all its power.
“Only God knows when this crisis will end,” said Sikunyongana. His generator ran out of diesel and spluttered to a halt as he spoke. “You see what I mean?” he said.
Zambia’s worst electricity blackouts in memory have been caused by a severe drought in the region that has left the critical Kariba dam, the source of Sikunyongana’s woes, with insufficient water to run its hydroelectric turbines. Kariba is the largest man-made lake in the world by volume and lies 200 kilometers (125 miles) south of Lusaka on the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The massive dam wall was built in the 1950s and more than 80 workers died during construction. It was meant to revolutionize the countries’ energy supplies by trapping the water of the Zambezi River, turning a valley into a huge lake and providing an endless supply of renewable hydroelectric power.
That’s not the case anymore as months of drought brought by the naturally occurring El Nino weather pattern and exacerbated by warming temperatures have put Zambia’s hydroelectric station on the brink of completely shutting down for the first time.
The water level is so low that only one of the six turbines on Zambia’s side of the dam is able to operate, cutting generation to less than 10% of normal output. Zambia relies on Kariba for more than 80% of its national electricity supply, and the result is Zambians have barely a few hours of power a day at the best of times. Often, areas are going without electricity for days.
Edla Musonda is so exasperated that she’s taken to lugging her entire desktop computer — hard drive, monitor, everything — to a local cafe so she can work.
Musonda and others cram into the Mercato Cafe in the Zambian capital of Lusaka, not for the sandwiches or the ambiance but because it has a diesel generator. Tables are cluttered with power strips and cables as people plug in cell phones, laptops and in Musonda’s case, a home office. This is the only way her small travel business is going to survive.
Less than half of Zambia’s 20 million people had access to electricity before Kariba’s problems. Millions more have now been forced to adjust as mothers find different ways to cook for their families and children do their homework by candlelight. The most damaging impact is during the daylight hours when small businesses, the backbone of the country, struggle to operate.
“This is also going to increase poverty levels in the country,” said economist Trevor Hambayi, who fears Zambia’s economy will shrink dramatically if the power crisis is prolonged. It’s a warning call to the Zambian government and the continent in general about the danger to development of relying heavily on one source of energy that is so climate dependent.
The power crisis is a bigger blow to the economy and the battle against poverty than the lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic, said Zambia Association of Manufacturers president Ashu Sagar.
Africa contributes the least to global warming but is the most vulnerable continent to extreme weather events and climate change as poor countries can’t meet the high financials costs of adapting. This year’s drought in southern Africa is the worst in decades and has parched crops and left millions hungry, causing Zambia and others to already declare national disasters and ask for aid.
Hydroelectric power accounts for 17% of Africa’s energy generation, but that figure is expected to rise to 23% by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. Zambia is not alone in that hydroelectric power makes up over 80% of the energy mix in Mozambique, Malawi, Uganda, Ethiopia and Congo, even as experts warn it will become more unreliable.
“Extreme weather patterns, including prolonged droughts, make it clear that overreliance on hydro is no longer sustainable,” said Carlos Lopes, a professor at the Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
The Zambian government has urged people and businesses to embrace solar power. But many Zambians can’t afford the technology, while the government itself has turned to more familiar but polluting diesel generators to temporarily power hospitals and other buildings. It has also said it will increase its electricity from coal-fired stations out of necessity. While neighboring Zimbabwe has also lost much of its electricity generation from Kariba and blackouts there are also frequent, it gets a greater share of its power from coal plants.
At Kariba, the 128-meter-high (420-feet) dam wall is almost completely exposed. A dry, reddish-brown stain near the top marks where the water once reached in better times more than a decade ago.
Leonard Siamubotu, who has taken tourists on boat cruises on the picturesque lake for more than 20 years, has seen the change. As the water level dropped, it exposed old, dead trees that were completely submerged for years after the wall was built. “I’m seeing this tree for the first time,” he said of one that’s appeared in the middle of the lake.
The lake’s water level naturally rises and recedes according to the season, but generally it should go up by around six meters after the rains. It moved by less than 30 centimeters after the last rainy season barely materialized, authorities said. They hope this year’s rains, which should start in November, will be good. But they estimate that it’ll still take three good years for Kariba to fully recover its hydroelectric capability.
Experts say there’s also no guarantee those rains will come and it’s dangerous to rely on a changing climate given Zambia has had drought-induced power problems before, and the trend is they are getting worse.
“That’s not a solution … just to sit and wait for nature,” said Hambayi.
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Associated Press journalist Taiwo Adebayo in Abuja, Nigeria contributed to this report.
The Associated Press receives financial support for global health and development coverage in Africa from the Gates Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
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The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
FILE PHOTO: A man walks in the Central Business District on a rainy day, in Beijing · Reuters
Fri, October 11, 2024 at 11:24 PM EDT
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China said on Saturday it will “significantly increase” government debt issuance to offer subsidies to people with low incomes, support the property market and replenish state banks’ capital as it pushes to revive sputtering economic growth.
Without providing details on the size of the fiscal stimulus being prepared, Finance Minister Lan Foan told a news conference there will be more “counter-cyclical measures” this year.
Global financial markets have been keenly awaiting more details on China’s stimulus plans, fearing its 2024 economic growth target and longer-term growth trajectory may be at risk if more support is not announced soon.
Here are some comments from investors and analysts on the press briefing from China’s finance ministry:
RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE
“Investors were hoping for fresh stimulus, accompanied by specific numbers, to be announced at the MOF presser, including the size of these commitments. From this perspective, it turned out to be somewhat of a damp squib given only vague guidance was provided.
“That said, there were meaningful measures announced. The MoF affirmed room for the central government to increase debt, more support for housing markets, and increased local government debt quotas to alleviate refinancing woes.
“However, with markets focused on ‘how much’ over ‘what’, they were invariably set up to be disappointed by this briefing.”
HUANG XUEFENG, CREDIT RESEARCH DIRECTOR, SHANGHAI ANFANG PRIVATE FUND CO, SHANGHAI
“The focus seems to be around funding the fiscal gap and solving local government debt risks, which far undershoots expectations that had been priced into the recent stock market jump. Without arrangements targeting demand and investment, it’s hard to ease the deflationary pressure.”
ZHAOPENG XING, SENIOR CHINA STRATEGIST, ANZ, SHANGHAI
“MOF focused more on derisking local governments. It will likely add new quotas of treasury and local bonds. We expect a 10 trillion yuan ($1.42 trillion) implicit debt swap in the next few years. Official deficit and local bond quotas may both increase to 5 trillion yuan going forward. But it looks (to be) not much this year. We expect 1 trillion ultra-long treasury and 1 trillion local bonds to be announced by NPC this month end.”
BRUCE PANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST CHINA, JONES LANG LASALLE, HONG KONG
“The message released from today’s press conference is actually quite in line with the expectations of those familiar with China’s policy-making process and state structure. The officials have given answers to questions of ‘how’ but no details of ‘when’, yet.
“I will expect more details and number of the previewed fiscal stimulus to be published only after the upcoming meeting of the NPCSC to approve a plan to increase treasury issuance and provide a mid-year revision to the national budget. And it would be reasonable and practical to keep room for policy manoeuvring to prepare for external shocks and uncertainties.”
CHRISTOPHER WONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE
“There was mention of 2.3 trillion yuan and some details on local bond issuance that can support housing … but it stopped short of a big surprise factor. That said, we shouldn’t lose sight of the bigger picture and that is policymakers acknowledged the issues and are putting in genuine effort to tackle those issues.
“More time may be needed for more thought-out and targeted measures. But those measures also need to come fast as markets are eagerly waiting for them. Over expectations vs under-delivery would result in disappointment and that can manifest itself into Chinese markets.”
TIANCHEN XU, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT, BEIJING
“Our overall take is quite positive in that MoF is willing to tackle China’s many economic challenges by leveraging its borrowing room. The immediate benefits to the economy will be limited, as the MoF avoided large-scale direct cash handouts to households. However, its commitment to restoring local public finances through fiscal transfer and debt replacement is highly commendable.
“In the medium term, it will put an end to the aggressive deleveraging by local governments and ease the resulting deflationary pressure. And as their financial position stabilises, local governments will be better positioned to support the economy by providing public services and embark on public investments.
“The Chinese government’s determination to provide a backstop to the ailing property market and economy came through clearly in the press briefing by the MoF. However, specific numbers with regards to initiatives announced was lacking. The lack of a big headline figure may also disappoint some investors who were hoping for the government to announce a sizeable 2 trillion yuan in fresh fiscal stimulus to shore up the economy and boost confidence.
“Investors were hoping for more measures targeted at households instead of only the real estate sector. While today’s measures were focused on local governments and helping them to purchase unsold homes, it is unclear if this will translate into action as local governments have been reluctant so far to participate in the home purchase program for fear that home prices could fall further.
“Nevertheless, investors will take some comfort from the Finance Minister’s pronouncement that the central government has room to increase debt and the deficit, and that it has other tools in consideration to use in future. This offers hope that more can and will be done, although investors hoping for a big bang fiscal bazooka today will probably be disappointed.
($1 = 7.0666 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Asia markets team and China economics team; compiled by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Kim Coghill)
ST. LOUIS, July 16, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — On Thursday, August 1, 2024, Peabody (NYSE: BTU) will announce results for the quarter ended June 30, 2024. A conference call with management is scheduled for 10 a.m. CT on Thursday, August 1, 2024.
Instructions for the conference call participation and accessing a replay, as well as other investor data will be available at PeabodyEnergy.com prior to the call.
Participants may also access the call using the following phone numbers:
U.S. Toll Free 1 833 816 1387 Canada Toll Free 1 866 284 3684 International Toll 1 412 317 0480
Peabody (NYSE: BTU) is a leading coal producer, providing essential products for the production of affordable, reliable energy and steel. Our commitment to sustainability underpins everything we do and shapes our strategy for the future. For further information, visit PeabodyEnergy.com.
Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – April 29, 2024) – EMX Royalty Corporation (NYSE American: EMX) (TSXV: EMX) (FSE: 6E9) (the “Company” or “EMX“) is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Dawson Brisco and Mr. Chris Wright as independent directors to the Board effective immediately.
Dawson Brisco
Mr. Brisco is a Professional Geologist with 20 years of mining industry and business development experience in a variety of roles in the bulk commodity, metals and energy sectors. Mr. Brisco is currently the President and CEO of Morien Resources Corp., a Canadian mining royalty company specialized in bulk commodities, a position he has held since 2018. Prior to joining Morien, Mr. Brisco held numerous senior business development and technical roles including senior manager of an exploration alliance with Xstrata in Asia from 2005 to 2010. Mr. Brisco is an independent Director of the Mining Association of Nova Scotia and holds an Honours Bachelor of Science degree in Geology from Saint Mary’s University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Chris Wright
Mr. Wright serves as Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Liberty Energy. Mr. Wright is a dedicated humanitarian with a passion for bringing the benefits of energy to every community in the world. This passion has inspired a career in energy working not only in oil and gas but nuclear, solar, and geothermal. Mr. Wright embraces all sources of energy if they are abundant, affordable, and reliable.
Mr. Wright completed an undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering at MIT and graduate work in Electrical Engineering at both UC Berkeley and MIT. Mr. Wright founded Pinnacle Technologies and served as CEO from 1992 to 2006. Pinnacle created the hydraulic fracture mapping industry and its innovations helped launch commercial shale gas production in the late 1990s. Mr. Wright was Chairman of Stroud Energy, an early shale gas producer, before its sale to Range Resources in 2006. Additionally, Mr. Wright founded and served as Executive Chairman of Liberty Resources and Liberty Midstream Solutions until its sale in 2024. He also sits on the Board of Directors for Urban Solutions Group, and the Federal Reserve Bank, Denver Branch. In addition to his role at Liberty Energy, Mr. Wright serves on the board of numerous organizations and nonprofits, including a founding board member of the Bettering Human Lives Foundation.
About EMX – EMX is a precious, and base metals royalty company. EMX’s investors are provided with discovery, development, and commodity price optionality, while limiting exposure to risks inherent to operating companies. The Company’s common shares are listed on the NYSE American Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol “EMX”. Please see www.EMXroyalty.com for more information.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release may contain “forward looking statements” that reflect the Company’s current expectations and projections about its future results. These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding EMX’s normal course issuer bid, the Company’s pre-defined plan with its broker to allow for the repurchase of Shares and the timing, number and price of Shares that may be purchased under the normal course issuer bid, or other statements that are not statements of fact. When used in this news release, words such as “estimate,” “intend,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “will”, “believe”, “potential” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, which, by their very nature, are not guarantees of the Company’s future operational or financial performance, and are subject to risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause the Company’s actual results, performance, prospects or opportunities to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and factors may include, but are not limited to the market price of the Shares being too high to ensure that purchases benefit the Company and its shareholders, and other factors.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this news release or as of the date otherwise specifically indicated herein. Due to risks and uncertainties, including the risks and uncertainties identified in this news release, and other risk factors and forward-looking statements listed in the Company’s MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2023 (the “MD&A”), and the most recently filed Annual Information Form (“AIF”) for the year ended December 31, 2023, actual events may differ materially from current expectations. More information about the Company, including the MD&A, the AIF and financial statements of the Company, is available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.caand on the SEC’s EDGAR website at www.sec.gov.
ST. LOUIS, April 11, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Peabody (NYSE:BTU) today announced preliminary unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2024. The company expects to report first quarter revenue of $980 million; income from continuing operations, net of income taxes of $45 million; and Adjusted EBITDA1 of $160 million. These amounts are estimates, actual first quarter 2024 financial results will be released on May 2, 2024.
Sales volumes in the first quarter were largely in-line with expectations for our seaborne segments while the U.S. thermal segments reported lower than expected shipments. The seaborne thermal segment shipped 4.0 million tons (including 2.5 million export tons), the seaborne met segment shipped 1.4 million tons, the PRB segment shipped 18.7 million tons and the Other U.S. thermal segment shipped 3.2 million tons.
First quarter results were impacted by the following factors: 1) unfavorable seaborne thermal coal mix as a result of lower production at Wambo due to an extended longwall ramp-up offset by additional production of lower quality coal at Wilpinjong; 2) lower average realized prices in the seaborne metallurgical coal segment due to HVA and PCI to HCC price relativities significantly below historical levels and mining of lower quality coal at the CMJV; 3) higher than anticipated costs at the CMJV from an unplanned dragline outage and the acceleration of planned coal prep plant repairs; 4) lower U.S. thermal volumes due to unseasonably warm weather and continued low natural gas prices; and 5) an approximate $18 million non-cash remeasurement of AUD denominated monetary assets.
“Our first quarter included some unforeseen production challenges that are now behind us,” said Peabody President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Grech. “The CMJV dragline and Wambo longwall are again operating on plan and Shoal Creek continues to exceed production expectations as we begin the second quarter.”
On Thursday, May 2, 2024, Peabody will announce results for the quarter ended March 31, 2024. An investor conference call with management is scheduled for 10 a.m. CT on May 2, 2024.
Instructions for the conference call participation and accessing a replay, as well as other investor data will be available at PeabodyEnergy.com prior to the call.
Participants may also access the call using the following phone numbers:
U.S. Toll Free 1 833 816 1387 Canada Toll Free 1 866 669 9657 International Toll 1 412 317 0480
Peabody (NYSE: BTU) is a leading coal producer, providing essential products for the production of affordable, reliable energy and steel. Our commitment to sustainability underpins everything we do and shapes our strategy for the future. For further information, visit PeabodyEnergy.com.
Contact: Karla Kimrey 314.342.7890
1 Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please refer to the tables and related notes in this press release for a reconciliation and definition of non-GAAP financial measures.
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Unaudited)
For the Quarter Ended Mar. 31, 2024
(Dollars In Millions)
Note: Management believes that non-GAAP performance measures are used by investors to measure our operating performance. Thesemeasures are not intended to serve as alternatives to U.S. GAAP measures of performance and may not be comparable to similarly-titledmeasures presented by other companies.
Preliminary Estimate
Quarter Ended Mar. 2024
Income from Continuing Operations, Net of Income Taxes
$ 45
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization
80
Asset Retirement Obligation Expenses
13
Provision for NARM Loss
2
Changes in Amortization of Basis Difference Related to Equity Affiliates
(1)
Interest Expense
15
Interest Income
(19)
Unrealized Losses on Foreign Currency Option Contracts
6
Take-or-Pay Contract-Based Intangible Recognition
(1)
Income Tax Provision
20
Adjusted EBITDA (1)
$ 160
(1)
Adjusted EBITDA is defined as income from continuing operations before deducting net interest expense, income taxes, asset retirement obligation expenses and depreciation, depletion and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA is also adjusted for the discrete items that management excluded in analyzing each of our segment’s operating performance, as displayed in the reconciliation above. Adjusted EBITDA is used by management as the primary metric to measure each of our segment’s operating performance and allocate resources.
This information is intended to be reviewed in conjunction with the company’s filings with the SEC.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. They often include words or variation of words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “projects,” “forecasts,” “targets,” “would,” “will,” “should,” “goal,” “could” or “may” or other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements provide management’s current expectations or predictions of future conditions, events or results. All statements that address operating performance, events, or developments that Peabody expects will occur in the future are forward-looking statements. They may include estimates of sales and other operating performance targets, cost savings, capital expenditures, dividends, share repurchases, other expense items, actions relating to strategic initiatives, demand for the company’s products, liquidity, capital structure, market share, industry volume, other financial items, descriptions of management’s plans or objectives for future operations and descriptions of assumptions underlying any of the above. The declaration and payment of future quarterly dividends remains at the discretion of the Board of Directors and will depend on the Company’s financial results, cash flow and cash requirements, future prospects, and other factors deemed relevant by the Board. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and reflect Peabody’s good faith beliefs, assumptions and expectations, but they are not guarantees of future performance or events. Furthermore, Peabody disclaims any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, except as required by law. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause such differences include, but are not limited to, a variety of economic, competitive and regulatory factors, many of which are beyond Peabody’s control, that are described in Peabody’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2023 and other factors that Peabody may describe from time to time in other filings with the SEC. You may get such filings for free at Peabody’s website at www.peabodyenergy.com. You should understand that it is not possible to predict or identify all such factors and, consequently, you should not consider any such list to be a complete set of all potential risks or uncertainties.
