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Silver is a precious metal that has been used for thousands of years in various forms of currency, jewelry, and industrial applications. However, the demand for silver has increased in recent years due to its use in new technologies such as Electric cars, solar panels and electronic devices. As a result, this raises concerns about the possibility of a silver deficit, where demand for the metal exceeds supply. This raises the question of whether or not a silver deficit would have any significant impact on the global economy and the price of silver.
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Prices of silver could hit a nine-year high of $30 per ounce this year — possibly outpacing gold prices.
The last time spot silver touched $30 levels per ounce was in February 2013, according to closing price data from Refinitiv.
Insufficient supplies of silver as well as its tendency to be a better performer than gold in periods of high inflation are key drivers supporting the outlook, analysts told CNBC.
“Silver has historically delivered gains of close to 20% per annum in years inflation is high. Given that track record, and how cheap silver remains relative to gold, it wouldn’t surprise to see silver head towards $30 per ounce this year, though that will likely offer significant resistance,” said Janie Simpson, managing director at ABC Bullion.
Spot silver prices notched a record high of $49.45 in 1980 against the backdrop of a 13.5% inflation rate, up from around $4 in 1976, when the rate of inflation was cooler at 5.7%.
The precious metal last traded $24.02 per ounce, against the backdrop of an inflation rate of 6.5%.
Silver shortage
“Silver is in a shortage… and there is a notable drawdown in the available physical stocks held in New York and London’s physical hubs, more so than seen in gold,” said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at precious metals company MKS PAMP.
Shiels added that silver is expected to post deficits of more than 100 million ounces over the next five years, with industrial demand spurring the tight supply.
“The largest segment of silver demand is industrial, [which equates] to almost 50% of total demand,” she said, calling for a base case of silver prices to climb to $28, with a bullish case of $30 or more.
I’m very bullish on gold, but I’m even more bullish on silver.
Randy Smallwood
PRESIDENT OF WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
That demand is expected to grow more than 15% over the next five years, he said, hinging on accelerated industrial demand from automotive and electronics applications.
Silver is a material commonly used in the manufacturing of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry and electronics.
No silver lining for silver supplies
“We hit peak silver supply back about five, six years ago. Silver production on a worldwide basis has actually been dropping, and we’re not seeing as much silver produced from the mines,” said Randy Smallwood, president of Wheaton Precious Metals.
According to trade group The Silver Institute, the supply of silver from mine production in 2022 was 843.2 million ounces, which was still shy of the decade’s peak of 900 million ounces in 2016.
The supply of silver, which is largely produced as a byproduct of lead-zinc, copper and gold mines, does not generally respond as quickly to demand.
Freshly cast 30 kilogram silver ingots cooling in their molds at the JSC Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in Krasnoyarsk, Russia, on Monday, July 12, 2021.
Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“When silver prices go up, it’s not like the silver mines can increase production, because the silver mines only supply about 25% of the silver,” Smallwood said, adding that the market often relies on the lead-zinc mines to satisfy the higher demand.
However, he maintained that while it wouldn’t be surprising to see silver touch $30 per ounce, he does not think that price will hold. He calls for prices to “stay comfortably over $20 per ounce.”
“I’m very bullish on gold, but I’m even more bullish on silver,” Smallwood said.
‘Headwind for silver’?
However, recession fears could lead to softer industrial demand, which may cause silver prices to drop as low as $18 per ounce, according to MKS PAMP.
The biggest risk to silver prices is if inflation falls away faster than expected, Pallion’s Simpson seconded.
“If the Fed continues to tighten, and if inflation falls away more rapidly than the market expects, that will be a headwind for silver,” she said, “especially if the economy heads into a recession, given the large share of silver demand tied to industrial output.”
Legendary Bob Moriarty of 321Gold sits down with us to discuss a number of geopolitical events ranging from Civil War, the Breakup of the EU, the World Economic Forum, President Biden, President Trump, Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Netherlands, the United States, and Precious Metals! Need I say more?
0:00 Introduction 1:00 Thoughts on Biden’s Attack on America at the Independence Hall 2:28 What is Next? 3:17 Praetorian Guards 5:00 Civil War 7:17 Why does Russia not what to supply gas to Germany 8:51 How are the sanctions impacting Russia 9:33 What is China doing 9:53 Wholesale Price of Electricity in France and Germany 10:33 Russia has given 2 important choices to Europe 10:55 EU Breakup 11:45 What are the European Governments doing to solve high energy costs 12:35 Use now Pay later 13:44 Is NATO going to break up 16:42 Who is the World Economic Forum (WEF), Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, George Soros 18:02 What does history teach us about the WEF 18:47 Who is behind Antifa, BLM, Climate Change, Green Energy, The Flu, Ukraine 20:17 Direct relationship between fossil fuels and population 21:22 One set of rules from them, and one set of rules for us 22:16 Modern Monetary Theory 23:13 Why is the WEF targeting farmers in Europe 25:00 How does Money, Gold and Silver, fit into the narrative 27:15 Gold Backed Currency 27:55 Next 4 Months more change than in the last 50 years 28:25 What are you choices 29:07 Have the metals bottomed 30:00 What metals is Bob buying 30:50 The Art of Peace 31:30 Best place to buy Precious Metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rhodium), Precious Metal IRA’s, and Segregated, Insured Storage with BRINKS 30:20 Listed to what Bob predicted in 2016 35:53 Where can you find Bob’s Books
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Economic analyst and financial writer David Morgan says, at some point in the not-so-distant future, the world is going to have another banking crisis. Morgan contends in the next financial crisis, the banks are going to take depositors’ money in what is called a “bail-in.” Morgan explains, “We have this saying in the precious metals world, and that is ‘If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.’ Let’s move it over to the currency realm. What if you had that same idea that if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it? The reason why that is so important to me and many others is the bailout situation is over. It will be bail-ins next time, which means you become an unsecured creditor of the bank. This means that if you don’t hold it, you may not own it. If we were to have a bail-in . . . they may not take all of your currency, but they would probably take part of it. . . . If you go to Argentina during one of their episodes, all the money in their banks was still yours, but you were limited to what you could take out. You could be a millionaire or a multi-millionaire, but you could only take out 300 pesos a week. So, what good is that? If your mortgage was 4,000 pesos a month and you can only get 300 pesos a week, you would default on your mortgage.”
How much actual cash is out there for you to hold? Morgan says, “M-Zero is the monetary base. That is paper money and coins, and in a round number it’s about $2 trillion. That is a bigger number than what I thought. Another interesting thing is there are 12 billion $100 bills. (That equals $1.2 trillion in $100 bills.) So, the vast majority of the supply of Federal Reserve Notes are in $100 bills.”
How much currency is sitting in the banking system that you could tap? Morgan says, “60% of U.S. currency is sitting overseas. . . . So, of all the money out there, only 5% of the available physical money is actually there in the bank in America.”
Morgan suggests that you have one to three months cash at home for expenses like rent or mortgage, food and utilities.
Morgan also likes gold as an investment, but he especially likes silver. Morgan says, “Silver is totally undervalued and is the most undervalued asset out there.” Morgan contends that “silver is at near record lows” at around $23 per ounce if adjusted for inflation and massive Fed money creation.
Another reason to hold physical gold and silver is inflation is starting to take off in a way most people can clearly see now. Even the Fed knows the inflation genie is out of the bottle, and it’s not going to be put back in anytime soon.
In closing, Morgan suggests holding some cash, gold and silver in physical form for safety and security.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with precious metals expert David Morgan, publisher of “The Morgan Report.”
