Silver price rose 1.6% to $38.96 per ounce on Monday, its strongest level since September 2011, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid escalating US trade tensions.
The spike followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of 30% tariffs on most imports from the European Union and Mexico, boosting demand for non-rate-sensitive commodities. Mexico is also the largest producer of silver and a key supplier to the American market.
Analysts say the rally is driven by speculative flows, with silver moving above key technical resistance levels as traders bet on further gains. ANZ noted that breaching the $35–$37 range could propel silver prices toward $40 per ounce.
Market outlook
Participants are also eyeing US consumer price index and producer price index readings due later this week for signals on Federal Reserve policy, given silver’s tendency to benefit in a lower-rate environment.
In addition, Indian investors, traditionally heavy buyers of gold, have increasingly turned to silver this year as its returns outpaced those of gold.
The rise in appetite for the metal has left the physical market under strain in London, where most silver is held by exchange-traded funds — meaning it isn’t available to lend or buy. Since February, the volume of silver-backed ETFs has expanded by some 2,570 tons, according data compiled by Bloomberg.
Silver’s outperformance of gold means that the ratio between the two has dropped in recent months, though silver still remains relatively cheap historically. It currently takes about 86 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold, compared with a 10-year average of 80.
“Silver demand is currently benefiting from the threat of trade wars and bullion being way out of reach for many,” Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd, told Bloomberg.
“Gold has already seen a tremendous upswing, and it’s currently expensive,” leaving investors more inclined to consider a cheaper alternative, she added.
Silver ETF inflows at record pace
Silver has emerged as one of the most attractive investment assets of 2025, with funds flowing into exchange-traded products (ETP) backed by the metal already surpassing all of last year, says the Silver Institute.
During the first half of 2025, silver-backed ETPs saw net inflows totalling 95 million oz., taking the total global holdings to 1.13 billion oz. — only 7% below the peak level of 1.21 billion oz. in February 2021, according data compiled by the Institute.
The total value of ETP holdings hit a series of all-time highs in June, exceeding $40 billion for the first time. Nearly half of the year’s gains were recorded in that month alone. By month-end, the metal’s price had gone up by a quarter for the year.
The Silver Institute notes that June 2025 was the most significant monthly increase since the Reddit-driven silver squeeze in early 2021, when prices leaped to nearly $30 an ounce.
Production of silver at Novosibirsk precious metals plant · Reuters
By Rajendra Jadhav
MUMBAI (Reuters) -Indian investors, traditionally obsessed with stockpiling gold, are increasingly turning to silver, which was trading near a 14-year high on Monday, as its returns this year outpaced those of gold.
Imports fill most of the demand in the world’s largest consumer of silver, where domestic prices touched a record high of 114,875 rupees ($1,336) a kg as a production shortfall spurred investors’ hopes for a further rally.
“Gold’s done pretty well for me over the last couple of years,” said Umesh Agarwal, a regular buyer of gold coins, who recently made his first purchase of a one-kilogram bar of silver.
“Now I’m hoping silver follows the same path and gives similar returns.”
Domestic prices of silver have risen 21% in the past three months, outstripping a rise of 5% in gold, as opposed to the scenario of the past year, when gold prices surged 34%, compared to a rise of 23% in silver.
The appetite for silver is driven both by investment and industry needs in areas such as solar energy and electric vehicles, outpacing production, said Chirag Thakkar, chief executive of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a leading silver importer.
“Usually, investors cash in when prices hit record highs, offloading coins and bars or pulling out of exchange-traded funds (ETFs),” he added.
“However, this time, even at record highs, people are investing, rather than selling.”
Silver ETFs attracted inflows of a record 20.04 billion rupees in June, up from 8.53 billion in May, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India showed.
In the June quarter, silver ETFs attracted inflows of 39.25 billion rupees, far outpacing the 23.67 billion flowing into gold ETFs.
Such ETFs offer investors a convenient way to gain exposure to silver, which is heavy and costly to store and transport, said Vikram Dhawan, head of commodities and fund manager at Nippon India Mutual Fund, which manages metal ETFs.
Volatility in equity markets following U.S. President Donald Trump‘s tariffs has also pushed investors to diversify, said a Mumbai-based bullion dealer with a silver importing bank.
Traditionally the choice of budget-conscious rural consumers, silver is increasingly attracting urban buyers as an investment, the dealer added.
Indian retail investment demand rose 7% in the first half of 2025 on the year, fuelled by expectations of a price rally, the Silver Institute said this month.
Silver imports jumped 431% in May on the year to 544.1 tons, while gold imports fell 25% to 30.5 tons, trade ministry data showed.
($1=85.9780 Indian rupees)
(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Additional reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran; Editing by Mayank Bhardwaj and Clarence Fernandez)
We’re pleased to share that EMX has sold its Moroccan portfolio and entered into a strategic exploration alliance with Avesoro Holdings. This partnership allows EMX to retain long-term upside through royalties, while Avesoro fully funds the advancement of projects in one of North Africa’s most prospective mineral regions.
EMX Sells its Moroccan Portfolio and Forms Exploration Alliance with Avesoro
Vancouver, British Columbia, July 8, 2025 (NYSE American: EMX; TSX Venture: EMX) – EMX Royalty Corporation (“EMX”) is pleased to announce the execution of an exploration alliance agreement (the “Agreement”) in the country of Morocco with Avesoro Morocco LTD (“Avesoro”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Avesoro Holdings LTD, a privately owned, West Africa-focused mid-tier gold producer. The Effective date of the Agreement is March 19, 2025, and key conditions precedent for closing have now been completed. Avesoro Holdings, through its subsidiaries, operates gold mines in the country of Liberia and is looking to expand its operations elsewhere in the region. As such, Avesoro brings high levels of operational and exploration experience in western Africa to the alliance. In Morocco, EMX and Avesoro will work together to advance a portfolio of exploration projects that EMX has assembled and to cooperatively explore for new opportunities.
Avesoro will fully fund the alliance activities, which will include the advancement of certain projects in the EMX Moroccan portfolio, as well as new projects identified by the alliance for acquisition. Under the Agreement, Avesoro will acquire EMX’s operating entity in Morocco (“EMX Corp Morocco”, a wholly owned subsidiary of EMX) that currently domiciles EMX’s exploration projects and its Moroccan exploration staff. Projects slated for advancement under the alliance will be initially designated as Alliance Exploration Projects (“AEP’s”). These will be funded from an annual budget agreed upon by Avesoro and EMX. Once a project reaches an appropriate stage of advancement, it can be converted to a Designated Project (“DP”) and advanced from an independent pool of funding provided by Avesoro.
The initial term of the alliance will be two years but can be extended by mutual agreement. At the end of the alliance term, any AEP’s that have not become DP’s will revert to EMX.
Strategic rationale. The sale of EMX’s Moroccan business unit is the latest example of efficient execution of our Royalty Generation business. The exploration alliance with Avesoro will perpetuate EMX’s upside royalty exposure across a large portfolio of exploration assets in a highly prospective region, while reducing ongoing operational expenses.
Commercial Terms Overview. (all terms in USD)
Alliance stage:
Avesoro has made an execution payment to EMX of $650,000.
Avesoro will provide an initial pool of capital of at least $1.5 million/year to advance the alliance projects and to make new acquisitions within the country of Morocco. The initial term of the alliance will be two years.
Avesoro has agreed to provide the necessary funding to keep the projects in good standing during the term of the alliance.
At any time, Avesoro can elect to deem any of the projects a Designated Project (DP).
Any project that has not been converted to a DP by the end of the alliance term will be returned to EMX.
Designated project stage:
Avesoro will retain a 100% ownership in each of the DPs, with EMX retaining a 2% NSR royalty that is uncapped and cannot be repurchased or reduced.
Each DP will have a minimum $2,500,000 work commitment for the first five years and each DP will be funded from an independent pool of capital.
Commencing on the first anniversary of the nomination of the first DP, EMX will receive a $50,000 advance royalty payment, escalating by 15% per year until the advance royalty payment reaches $100,000.
EMX will also receive additional advance royalty payments for each subsequent project for which a positive feasibility study is delivered. These will begin at $50,000, escalating by 15% per year until the project reaches production or the advance royalty payment reaches $100,000.
EMX will also receive milestone payments of $500,000 for each project for which a feasibility study is delivered, and $1,000,000 for each project that reaches production.
Overview of EMX’s Moroccan Portfolio. EMX has been active in Morocco since 2021, conducting reconnaissance exploration programs that have resulted in the acquisition of 18 exploration projects in Morocco, comprising 860 square kilometers (see Figure 1). These include a combination of gold, copper and other base metal projects that are strategically located in several of Morocco’s key mineral belts, with three projects in the highly underexplored Moroccan Sahara region, 14 projects in the well-endowed Anti-Atlas belt, home to several of Morocco’s most significant mineral deposits, and one project in the High-Atlas belt.
Morocco is emerging as an attractive jurisdiction for mineral exploration and mineral resource development, benefiting from a stable regulatory framework, well-developed infrastructure, and highly prospective geological settings. The country hosts significant precious and base metal mines yet remains underexplored compared to other mining regions.
In advance of signing the Alliance, EMX and Avesoro have agreed upon extensive follow-up programs to continue to advance the projects. Nine of the existing EMX projects will be designated as AEP’s at the onset of alliance activities.
Dr. Eric P. Jensen, CPG, a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101 and employee of the Company, has reviewed, verified and approved the disclosure of the technical information contained in this news release.
About EMX. EMX is a precious and base metals royalty company. EMX’s investors are provided with discovery, development, and commodity price optionality, while limiting exposure to risks inherent to operating companies. The Company’s common shares are listed on the NYSE American Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol “EMX”. Please see www.EMXroyalty.com for more information.
About Avesoro. Avesoro Resources Inc. is a leading West Africa-focused, privately owned mid-tier gold producer. Deeply committed to sustainable and responsible mining practices, Avesoro strives to create a diverse and inclusive workforce that adheres to strict environmental, social, and governance standards. Avesoro is recognized for its exceptional technical expertise and broad commercial and financial capabilities that span exploration, engineering, construction, and mine operations. Please see www.avesoro.com for more information.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release may contain “forward looking statements” that reflect the Company’s current expectations and projections about its future results. These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding perceived merit of properties, exploration results and budgets, mineral reserves and resource estimates, work programs, capital expenditures, timelines, strategic plans, market prices for precious and base metal, or other statements that are not statements of fact. When used in this news release, words such as “estimate,” “intend,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “will”, “believe”, “potential” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, which, by their very nature, are not guarantees of the Company’s future operational or financial performance, and are subject to risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause the Company’s actual results, performance, prospects or opportunities to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and factors may include, but are not limited to unavailability of financing, failure to identify commercially viable mineral reserves, fluctuations in the market valuation for commodities, difficulties in obtaining required approvals for the development of a mineral project, increased regulatory compliance costs, expectations of project funding by joint venture partners and other factors.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this
news release or as of the date otherwise specifically indicated herein. Due to risks and uncertainties, including the risks and uncertainties identified in this news release, and other risk factors and forward-looking statements listed in the Company’s MD&A for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 (the “MD&A”), and the most recently filed Annual Information Form (“AIF”) for the year ended December 31, 2024, actual events may differ materially from current expectations. More information about the Company, including the MD&A, the AIF and financial statements of the Company, is available on SEDAR at www.sedarplus.ca and on the SEC’s EDGAR website at www.sec.gov.
Figure 1: location map for EMX exploration projects in Morocco
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA / ACCESS Newswire / July 7, 2025 / Empress Royalty Corp. (TSXV:EMPR)(OTCQX:EMPYF) (“Empress Royalty” or the “Company“) is pleased to announce it executed a binding term sheet (the “Term Sheet“) on July 4, 2025 with Milford Mining Company Utah, LLC (“Milford Mining“) to purchase a 5% royalty (the “Royalty“) on the gross gold and silver ounces produced and sold from the Milford Copper Mine (the “Mine“), located in Milford near Beaver County, Utah, USA for US$3,000,000.
Milford Mining advises that it intends to use the proceeds from the sale of the Royalty to increase the production capacity of the Mine to meet the growing global demand for copper.Since acquiring the Mine in 2023, Milford Mining has focused on revitalizing processing infrastructure and implementing sustainable mining practices to enhance operational efficiency at the Mine. The planned expansion aims to scale operations, exploring new targets across the mineralized district, and enhance infrastructure to support future growth.
“This transaction represents a significant milestone for Empress – our first US royalty and a highly strategic addition to our portfolio of precious metal royalties and streams,” stated Alexandra Woodyer Sherron, CEO & President of Empress Royalty. “The Milford Copper Mine offers near-term production, a scalable restart plan, and valuable gold and silver by-products that align with our core investment thesis. We structured the royalty to reflect our disciplined approach to capital allocation, and we expect to fund the investment using our existing cash and precious metal holdings. We are excited to support Milford Mining and look forward to closing the transaction in the near future.”
The closing and funding of the Royalty are subject to the execution of a definitive agreement (the “Definitive Agreement“) between the Company and Milford. Certain key terms that have been agreed include:
The Royalty is a 5% royalty on the gross gold and silver ounces produced and sold from the Mine.
The purchase price for the Royalty is US$3,000,000 payable to Milford Mining at closing.
The Royalty will terminate when the payments made to Empress total US$12,000,000.
If certain minimum monthly gold and silver sales are not achieved by Milford Mining, Empress will receive a payment to top it up to the amount of the Royalty payments it would have received had these minimum sales levels been met.
Funding is subject to customary conditions precedent, including the finalization and execution of documentation and the provision of customary legal opinions.
ABOUT EMPRESS ROYALTY CORP.
Empress is a global royalty and streaming creation company providing investors with a diversified portfolio of gold and silver investments. Empress has built a portfolio of precious metal investments and is actively investing in mining companies with development and production stage projects who require additional non-dilutive capital. The Company has strategic partnerships with Endeavour Financial and Terra Capital which allow Empress to not only access global investment opportunities but also bring unique mining finance expertise, deal structuring and access to capital markets. Empress is looking forward to continuously creating value for its shareholders through the proven royalty and streaming models.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this press release.
The information contained herein includes “forward-looking statements” and “forward looking information” as defined under applicable Canadian securities laws (“forward-looking statements”). Forward-looking statements and information can generally be identified by the use of terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “continue”, “believe”, “plans”, “anticipate” or similar terms.
Forward-looking information and statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the activities, events or developments that Empress Royalty Corp. (“Empress” or the “Company”) expects or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including those regarding future growth and ability to create new streams or royalties, the development and focus of the Company, its acquisition strategy, the plans and expectations of the operators of the projects underlying its interests, including the proposed advancement and expansion of such projects; the results of exploration, development and production activities of the operators of such projects; and the Company’s expectations regarding future revenues.
Forward-looking information and statements are based on the then current expectations, beliefs, assumptions, estimates and forecasts about Empress’s business and the industry and markets in which it operates. Forward-looking information and statements are made based upon numerous assumptions and although the assumptions made by the Company in providing forward-looking information and statements are considered reasonable by management at the time, there can be no assurance that such assumptions will prove to be accurate. Forward-looking information and statements also involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, which may cause actual results, performances and achievements of Empress to differ materially from any projections of results, performances and achievements of Empress including, without limitation, any inability of the operators of the properties underlying the Company’s royalty and stream interests to execute proposed plans for such properties or to achieve planned development and production estimates and goals, risks related to the operators of the projects in which the Company holds interests, including the successful continuation of operations at such projects by those operators, risks related to exploration, development, permitting, infrastructure, operating or technical difficulties on any such projects, risks related to international operations, government relations and environmental regulation, uncertainty relating to the availability and costs of financing needed in the future and the Company’s ability to carry out its growth plans and other related risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of important factors which could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements, refer to the annual information form of Empress for the year ended December 31, 2024 and its other publicly filed documents under its profile at www.sedarplus.ca. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information and statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, or intended. There can be no assurance that forward-looking information and statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information and statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or reissue forward-looking information as a result of new information or events except as required by applicable securities laws. Disclosure relating to properties in which Empress holds royalty or stream interests is based on information publicly disclosed by the owners or operators of such properties. The Company generally has limited or no access to the properties underlying its interests and is largely dependent on the disclosure of the operators of its interests and other publicly available information. The Company generally has limited or no ability to verify such information. Although the Company does not have any knowledge that such information may not be accurate, there can be no assurance that such third-party information is complete or accurate. In addition, certain information publicly reported by operators may relate to a larger property than the area covered by the Company’s interest, which often may only apply to a portion of the overall project area or applicable mineral resources or reserves.
July 7, 2025 – Vancouver, BC: Riverside Resources Inc.(“Riverside” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: RRI) (OTCQB: RVSDF) (FSE: 5YY), is pleased to provide shareholders with an update on exploration progress at the Union Gold-Silver Project in Sonora, Mexico. The project is under option to Questcorp Mining Inc. (“Questcorp”) who recently announced the commencement of their Phase 1 field program (see Questcorp release dated June 24, 2025).
As part of the advancing exploration program, Riverside and Questcorp are lining up for the first-ever drill program at Union, which will follow up on new geophysical and geochemical surveys that have confirmed and refined high-priority mineral exploration Carbonate Replacement Deposit (CRD) targets for gold and base metals. The initial program will comprise over 1,500 metres of diamond drilling with possibly approximately 7 holes ranging from 150-350m per hole designed to test at least three historic mine areas including the Union, North Union, and Famosa zones. Historical records suggest these zones previously produced an estimated 50,000 ounces gold equivalent, primarily from shallow, inclined shafts exploiting mantos and chimney structures of gold-richCRD-style systems summarized in the published National Instrument 43-101 technical report filed by Questcorp on Sedar+ May 7, 2025.
“With drill targets now defined by first ever ground and airborne detailed geophysics, further supported by surface sampling, the Union Project is now entering an exciting new phase of exploration,” said John-Mark Staude, President & CEO of Riverside Resources. “This will be the first-ever drill program on a historically productive but underexplored system at Union and we believe there’s real potential for a meaningful discovery. We’re pleased to be working with the Questcorp team as both technical collaborators and significant shareholders, with our stake in Questcorp increasing potentially to 19.9% over time. It’s a strong alignment, and we’re excited to help unlock the value we believe this district holds.”
Riverside has completed an initial Induced Polarization (IP) geophysics orientation line over the Union Mine, along with a second line over the Union North Mine. These surveys provide valuable conductivity and resistivity data, which can support a more extensive IP program following the upcoming drill campaign. The IP is successfully imaging key resistivity and chargeability features at depth to guide drill collar placement for some of the initial drill holes. The IP profiles correlate with mapped mineralized zones and former workings, helping refine the orientation and location of the planned drill pads. An airborne drone magnetic survey was completed over the property to provide structural context, follow up potential intrusive feeders and give information about pediments and potential faults beneath the post-mineral young cover units. Figure 1: Cross section IP with interpreted structures and ltargets from Union new Induced Polarity geophysics survey.Ongoing surface geochemistry and mapping continues to strengthen the targeting pipeline, particularly across exposed gold-rich manto zones and along the margins of shallow post-mineral gravel cover. These efforts are focused on delineating the transition zones from covered to exposed mineralization and establishing structural controls that may influence ore continuity at depth.
Mexico Portfolio Update: Riverside Resources has received formal notice from Fortuna Mining, via its Mexican subsidiary Monumental Minerals, that it has completed Phase 2 exploration work at the Cecilia Project in Sonora, Mexico and will not be proceeding with the option agreement. As a result, Fortuna has not earned any interest in the project. Per the termination terms, Fortuna will cover applicable project-related costs, including taxes and other expenses, for the next six months. Riverside now regains full control of the Cecilia Project and is free to advance the drill-ready targets developed to date or market the opportunity to new potential partners. Over the past year, exploration activities, including drilling, identified gold mineralization in multiple holes and defined several high-priority targets. Most recently, Riverside completed an additional C$300,000 in target advancement work through the existing agreement, which has further refined drill targets now ready for follow-up.
Riverside maintains a strong portfolio of partner-funded projects across Mexico and Canada and is pleased to see continued momentum from its partners, including Questcorp, to unlock the potential of quality, earlier-stage assets like Union.
Upcoming Rick Rule Investor Conference Attendance Riverside will be a sponsor at the Rule Symposium 2025, taking place from July 7 to July 11 in Boca Raton, Florida. The Company welcomes investors and stakeholders to visit us at Booth #30 or connect with us online to meet the team and hear more about ongoing initiatives, including the Union Project, the recent Blue Jay Gold spinout and other portfolio developments. We welcome any inquiries to info@rivres.com.
Qualified Person & QA/QC: The scientific and technical data contained in this news release pertaining to the Union Project was reviewed and approved by Freeman Smith, P.Geo, a non-independent qualified person to Riverside Resources, who is responsible for ensuring that the information provided in this news release is accurate and who acts as a “qualified person” under National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects.
About Riverside Resources Inc.: Riverside is a well-funded exploration company driven by value generation and discovery. The Company has a strong balance sheet, no debt, and fewer than 75 million shares outstanding, supported by a robust portfolio of gold-silver and copper assets and royalties across North America. Riverside has extensive experience and knowledge operating in Mexico and Canada and leverages its large database to generate a portfolio of prospective mineral properties. Riverside has properties available for option, with information available on the Company’s website at www.rivres.com. ON BEHALF OF RIVERSIDE RESOURCES INC.
“John-Mark Staude”
Dr. John-Mark Staude, President & CEO
For additional information contact:John-Mark Staude President, CEO Riverside Resources Inc.info@rivres.comPhone: (778) 327-6671 Fax: (778) 327-6675 Web: www.rivres.comEric Negraeff Investor Relations Riverside Resources Inc. Phone: (778) 327-6671 TF: (877) RIV-RES1 Web: www.rivres.comCertain statements in this press release may be considered forward-looking information. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology (e.g., “expect”,” estimates”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “plans”). Such information involves known and unknown risks — including the risk that the Transaction will not be completed as contemplates, or at all, availability of funds, the results of financing and exploration activities, the interpretation of exploration results and other geological data, or unanticipated costs and expenses and other risks identified by Riverside in its public securities filings that may cause actual events to differ materially from current expectations. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release.Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.The Communications Team Riverside Resources Inc. info@rivres.com Phone: (778) 327-6671 x 312 Toll Free: 1-877-RIV-RES1 (748-7371) Web: www.rivres.com
(Bloomberg) — Platinum surged to its highest level since 2014 as supply concerns and a wave of speculative buying jolted the market.
The precious metal surged as much as 4.6%, while palladium was up more than 5% at one point. Gold edged higher as investors waited for clearer signs that Israel-Iran tensions won’t spill over again, and for more certainty on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
“The recent surge in Chinese investment and jewelry replacement is shining a spotlight on platinum’s supply deficit,” said Justin Lin, an analyst at Global X ETFs. “Palladium and platinum are intrinsically linked as they can be substituted for one another for use in autocatalysts depending on relative prices, so we can expect some positive momentum in palladium off of platinum’s rally.”
The dominant platinum spot market in London and Zurich has shown signs of tightness for months, after approximately half a million ounces surged into US warehouses, spurred by a lucrative arbitrage and fear of tariffs.
Forward prices for platinum are now trading well below spot, a situation known as backwardation, which indicates tight market conditions. The implied cost of borrowing the metal is also still high, at an annualized rate of roughly 13% for a one-month lease, well above the usual rate of close to zero.
Platinum surged 3.4% to $1,400.75 an ounce as of 11:25 a.m. in London and palladium jumped 2.4% to $1,093.46. Gold rose 0.2% to $3,339.20 and silver added 1%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.5%.
The custodians of trillions of dollars of global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China’s yuan as the splintering of world trade and geopolitical upheaval spark a rethink of financial flows.
According to a report by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) due to be published later on Tuesday, one in three central banks managing a combined $5 trillion plan to increase exposure to gold over the next one-to-two years after stripping out those planning to decrease, the highest in at least five years.
The survey of 75 central banks — carried out between March and May — gives a first snapshot of the repercussions of US President Donald Trump’s April 2 Liberation Day tariffs that sparked market turmoil and a slide in the safe-haven dollar and US Treasuries.
Gold, which central banks have already been adding at a record pace, was seen benefiting even further longer term, with a net 40% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings over the next decade.
“After years of record-high central bank gold purchases, reserve managers are doubling down on the precious metal,” OMFIF said.
The dollar, the most popular currency in last year’s survey, fell to seventh place this year, OMFIF said, with 70% of those surveyed saying the US political environment was discouraging them from investing in the dollar — more than twice the share a year ago.
In currencies, the euro and yuan stand to benefit the most from a diversification away from the dollar.
A net 16% of central banks surveyed by OMFIF said they plan to increase euro holdings over the next 12 to 24 months, making it the most in-demand currency, up from 7% a year ago, followed by the yuan.
But over the next decade, the yuan is more favoured, with a net 30% of central banks expecting to increase holdings and its share of global reserves seen tripling to 6%.
Net number of central banks looking to increase currency holdings over the next 12-24 months.
Separately, three sources who deal directly with reserve managers, told Reuters they saw the euro as now having the potential to recapture the share of currency reserves lost following the 2011 euro debt crisis by the end of this decade. They cited more positive sentiment among reserve managers towards the euro following Liberation Day.
That would mean a recovery to a roughly 25% share of currency reserves, from around 20% currently, representing a key moment in the bloc’s recovery from the debt crisis that threatened the euro’s existence.
Max Castelli, head of global sovereign markets strategy and advice at UBS Asset Management, told Reuters that reserve managers made many calls after Liberation Day to ask if the dollar’s safe-haven status was at risk.
“As far as I remember, this question has never been asked before, not even after the great financial crisis in 2008.”
The average expectation for the dollar’s share of global FX reserves in 2035 was 52%, the OMFIF survey showed, remaining the No.1 reserve currency but seen down from the current 58%.
Euro’s moment?
OMFIF survey respondents expected the euro to reach about a 22% share of global reserves in 10 years’ time.
“The euro’s share of global reserves will almost surely rise over the next few years, not so much because Europe is viewed so much more favorably, but because the dollar’s status is diminished,” said Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist, told Reuters by e-mail ahead of OMFIF’s publication.
The dollar has been hurt by US policy uncertainty
But Europe could attract a higher share of reserves sooner if the bloc is able to boost its pile of bonds that are currently dwarfed by the $29 trillion US Treasury market, while integrating its capital markets, the sources that speak directly to reserve managers, told Reuters.
ECB President Christine Lagarde has also urged action to bolster the euro as a viable dollar alternative.
The euro is the “only real alternative currency for the moment to make a significant change in the level of reserves,” said Bernard Altschuler, global head of central bank coverage at HSBC, adding he saw it as “realistic” for the euro to reach a 25% share of global reserves in 2-3 years if those issues are addressed.
The European Union is the world’s largest trading bloc. Its economy is far bigger than the dollar’s other rivals. Capital controls limit the appeal of the yuan.
Momentum for change has gathered pace, with Europe signalling willingness to curb its dependence on the US by boosting defence spending, including through more joint EU borrowing. Germany is ramping up spending, while the EU is trying to revive efforts to integrate its capital markets.
Public pension and sovereign wealth funds, also surveyed by OMFIF, saw Germany as the most attractive developed market.
UBS Asset Management’s Castelli said he was receiving many more questions about the euro, estimating the euro could recover to a 25% share of reserves by the end of the 2020s.
At the most bullish end, Francesco Papadia, who managed the ECB’s market operations during the debt crisis, estimated the euro could recover to 25% in as soon as two years.
Reserve managers he holds discussions with were more willing to look at the euro than before, Papadia, senior fellow at think-tank Bruegel, said.
Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank chief from 2002 to 2018, agreed the euro’s role as a reserve currency could grow. However, there’s “homework to do,” he told Reuters on the sidelines of a recent conference.
(By Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Jiaxing Li, Leika Kihara and Emily Green; Editing by Elisa Martinuzzi and Anna Driver)
The Communications Team
