FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewellery shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh · Reuters
By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anjana Anil
(Reuters) -Gold’s remarkable run higher is reaching new heights, with the market touching $3,500 per ounce as confidence in the U.S. economy further erodes after President Donald Trump’s renewed attack on the Federal Reserve chair.
Spot gold was trading around $3,428 per ounce by 1417 GMT, after hitting a record $3,500.05 earlier in the session.
Trump said on Monday the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately, repeating his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell as being slow to act and calling him a “major loser”.
That was followed by a furious flight from U.S. assets which undermined Wall Street and the dollar, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve piled fresh pressure on Treasuries. [USD/] [MKTS/GLOB]
“Gold is recalibrating to reflect what can only be described as epic changes in the global financial system. And those changes are a widespread and fundamental shift in confidence in the world’s reserve currency and its bond markets,” said independent analyst Ross Norman.
Bullion, renowned as a hedge against uncertainties and a highly liquid asset, has surged more than $800 since the start of the year. It surpassed $3,300 last Wednesday, and its strong momentum pushed it up by nearly $200 in just a few days.
CENTRAL BANK DEMAND
Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, said central bank demand “is very likely chasing gold’s move higher, because Trump 2.0’s chaos only hardens gold’s appeal as a geopolitical asset”.
In the final quarter of 2024, when Trump won the U.S. election, central bank purchases accelerated 54% year-on-year to 333 tons, according to an estimate from the World Gold Council.
Data showed that China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in March for the fifth straight month. China is considering setting up overseas warehouses to aid international settlement of specific products on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, its central bank said.
CORRECTION – LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700. It added that if central bank buying averages 100 tonnes/month, it estimates gold could reach $3,810 by end-2025.
ANZ last week also raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,600.
Asked about a pause in the rally, analysts and experts said any correction is likely to be short-lived, and greater gains are most likely on the horizon if instability persists.
“It is hard just now to see a scenario where gold could correct sharply lower as a physical floor of Johnny-come-lately buyers would support or cushion the decline,” said Norman.
Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said a major road block for gold “would be a less confrontative President Trump, either on the side of trade or on the side of monetary policy – both of which seem rather unlikely at the moment”.
Spot gold has hit 28 record highs so far in 2025, of which 16 are above the $3,000/oz milestone. Prices are up 31% so far this year, after ending 2024 with a 27% annual rise.
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru. Editing by Veronica Brown and Jan Harvey)
North Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – April 17, 2025) – Lion One Metals Limited (TSXV: LIO) (OTCQX: LOMLF) (“Lion One” or the “Company“) is pleased to provide an operations update and announce the completion of the raise bore project and mine ventilation upgrade at the Company’s 100% owned Tuvatu Gold Mine in Fiji, and reports preliminary quarterly gold production from the Tuvatu Gold Mine for Q1 CY2025.
The mine ventilation upgrade is a major milestone for the Company as it enables the Company to develop more levels underground and to put more mineralized headings into production. Airflow within the mine has improved dramatically and ventilation is now sufficient for development to proceed to the high-grade Zone 500 feeder zone, which is where the company drilled 75.9 m of 20.86 g/t gold and 54.9 m of 12.22 g/t gold. Together with the new mine equipment en route to Fiji and the development of the Company’s first shrinkage stope, the mine ventilation upgrade will increase mine development at Tuvatu in advance of the next stage of mill expansion to 600-700 TPD.
Operations Update
Summary:
Raise bore development and ventilation circuit upgrade complete
Ventilation is now sufficient for development to proceed to the high-grade Zone 500
New levels and mineral headings are now being developed as a result of improved ventilation
Record 13 active headings under development at Tuvatu with more to be added
New mine equipment en route to Fiji to further accelerate mine development
First shrinkage stope under development and advancing well
The Company is currently operating at the 300 TPD pilot plant phase with expansion to the 600-700 TPD phase of operations anticipated in 2026. In advance of expansion the Company is completing critical mine infrastructure projects, including the raise bore and primary ventilation upgrade project.
Development and commissioning of the raise bore and primary ventilation circuit is now complete. Airflow within the mine has improved dramatically. Windspeed measured at the main portal is now twice as fast as prior to the completion of the new circuit and mining operations can proceed more efficiently as a result. In recent months underground development has been restricted to near-surface levels due to lack of sufficient ventilation to advance deeper into the deposit. With the primary ventilation circuit now complete, the Tuvatu mine has sufficient ventilation for underground development to proceed down to the high-grade Zone 500 feeder zone, which is a major priority for the Company. New development and mineralized headings can now immediately be advanced to deeper levels of the mine and new sources of mineralized material can be developed and put into production. With the recent addition of new mining equipment and staff, a total of 13 active headings are now being advanced at Tuvatu, which is a new record for the Company. More headings will be added as additional mining equipment arrives on site in the coming weeks and months as mine development continues to accelerate.
A shrinkage stope is now actively being developed along the Ura1 lode at Tuvatu where bonanza grade gold results, such as 142.66 g/t gold over 2.2 m, have been returned from drilling. The shrinkage stope is anticipated to be approximately 100 m long, 30 m tall, and 1.5 m wide, and is designed to minimize dilution and maximize gold grades delivered to the mill. During development of the stope, the Ura1 lode has shown to be continuous, and sampling has returned consistent high grades across the structure. The Ura1 shrinkage stope is anticipated to come online in May and June 2025 and will be the first of a series of shrinkage stopes to be developed at Tuvatu.
Figure 1. Example Ura1 Shrinkage Stope Development. Example shrinkage stope development rise face showing the Ura1 lode at the center of the rise, with the Ura lode identified with red paint and sample markers identified in pink paint. Width of the image is approximately 1.6 m.
Lion One Metals recovered 3,555 oz of gold during the quarter ending March 31, 2025. This represents a 155% increase in production year-over-year from the same quarter in 2024, during which 1,394 oz of gold was produced while the processing plant was undergoing commissioning. This is a decrease in production quarter-over-quarter from the 4300 oz of gold produced during the prior quarter ending December 31, 2024.
The decrease in production from the prior quarter is due primarily to increased downtime related to both scheduled and unscheduled mill maintenance and repairs during January and February 2025. During this period there were 6 days of planned mill maintenance shutdown to complete a mill liner replacement, and a secondary mill pinion replacement, as well as unscheduled downtime and reduced mill throughput as a result of heavy rains. Mill throughput typically exceeds design levels and averages approximately 340 TPD but was reduced to an average of 280 TPD in January and February. Production returned to normal levels in March once both the scheduled and weather-related maintenance procedures were complete. Modifications to the mill are currently underway to minimize the impact of heavy rains and to improve water management within the pilot plant and reduce the seasonal effect of heavy rains.
Figure 2. Tuvatu Monthly Gold Production, October 2024 to March 2025. Gold production dipped in January and February 2025 due to scheduled mill maintenance shutdowns as well as to unscheduled maintenance and reduced mill throughput due to heavy rains. Production returned to baseline levels in March 2025.
In accordance with National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43- 101”), William J. Witte, P.Eng., Principal Advisor to the Company, is the Qualified Person for the Company and has reviewed and is responsible for the technical and scientific content of this news release.
Lion One Laboratories / QAQC
Lion One adheres to rigorous QAQC procedures above and beyond basic regulatory guidelines in conducting its drilling, sampling, testing, and analyses. The Company operates its own geochemical assay laboratory and its own fleet of diamond drill rigs using PQ, HQ and NQ sized drill rods.
Diamond drill core samples are logged by Lion One personnel on site. Exploration diamond drill core is split by Lion One personnel on site, with half core samples sent for analysis and the other half core remaining on site. Grade control diamond drill core is whole core assayed. Core samples are delivered to the Lion One Laboratory for preparation and analysis. All samples are pulverized at the Lion One lab to 85% passing through 75 microns and gold analysis is carried out using fire assay with an AA finish. Samples that return grades greater than 10.00 g/t Au are re-analyzed by gravimetric method, which is considered more accurate for very high-grade samples.
Duplicates of 5% of samples with grades above 0.5 g/t Au are delivered to ALS Global Laboratories in Australia for check assay determinations using the same methods (Au-AA26 and Au-GRA22 where applicable). ALS also analyses 33 pathfinder elements by HF-HNO3-HClO4 acid digestion, HCl leach and ICP-AES (method ME-ICP61). The Lion One lab can test a range of up to 71 elements through Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES) but currently focuses on a suite of 26 important pathfinder elements with an aqua regia digest and ICP-OES finish.
About Lion One Metals Limited
Lion One Metals is an emerging Canadian gold producer headquartered in North Vancouver BC, with new operations established in late 2023 at its 100% owned Tuvatu Alkaline Gold Project in Fiji. The Tuvatu project comprises the high-grade Tuvatu Alkaline Gold Deposit, the Underground Gold Mine, the Pilot Plant, and the Assay Lab. The Company also has an extensive exploration license covering the entire Navilawa Caldera, which is host to multiple mineralized zones and highly prospective exploration targets.
On behalf of the Board of Directors, Walter Berukoff, President, Chairman of the Board
Neither the TSX-V nor its Regulation Service Provider accepts responsibility or the adequacy or accuracy of this release
This press release may contain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included herein are forward-looking information. Generally, forward-looking information may be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “proposed”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases, or by the use of words or phrases which state that certain actions, events or results may, could, would, or might occur or be achieved. This forward-looking information reflects Lion One Metals Limited’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to Lion One Metals Limited and on assumptions Lion One Metals Limited believes are reasonable. These assumptions include, but are not limited to, the actual results of exploration projects being equivalent to or better than estimated results in technical reports, assessment reports, and other geological reports or prior exploration results. Forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance, or achievements of Lion One Metals Limited or its subsidiaries to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. Such risks and other factors may include, but are not limited to: the stage development of Lion One Metals Limited, general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; the actual results of current research and development or operational activities; competition; uncertainty as to patent applications and intellectual property rights; product liability and lack of insurance; delay or failure to receive board or regulatory approvals; changes in legislation, including environmental legislation, affecting mining, timing and availability of external financing on acceptable terms; not realizing on the potential benefits of technology; conclusions of economic evaluations; and lack of qualified, skilled labor or loss of key individuals. Although Lion One Metals Limited has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking information, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, or intended. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Lion One Metals Limited does not undertake to update any forward-looking information, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.
Drill hole APC104-D6 extended the first high-grade sub-zone drill tested by the Company to date by up to 70 metres vertically by intersecting 114.50 metres @ 5.00 g/t gold equivalent within 263.85 metres at 3.10 g/t gold equivalent. Hole APC104-D6 was drilled below previously announced holes APC104-D2 and APC104-D5, which intercepted 181.35 metres @ 5.38 g/t AuEq** and 106.35 metres at 9.05 g/t AuEq**, respectively.
Drill hole APC104-D7A clipped the eastern edge of the same sub-zone, intercepting 30.25 metres @ 5.10 g/t gold equivalent within 137.70 metres @ 2.94 g/t gold equivalent. Results to date from the new orthogonal drilling program into the first high grade sub-zone have now outlined dimensions of 180 metres of strike, 70 metres in thickness and over 70 metres vertical and is still open in most directions for future expansion.
The Company has modeled eleven high-grade sub-zones target areas within the top 1,000 vertical metres of Apollo and plans to drill test each of them over the course of 2025. The high-grade sub-zones have the potential to boost the overall grade and mineral inventory of the Apollo system within the existing block model.
Mother hole APC-106D was drilled outside the Apollo system to the north and intersected multiple, shallow and high-grade gold-silver veins with results including 1.65 metres @ 20.81 g/t gold equivalent and 1.90 metres @ 16.29 g/t gold equivalent. Drilling of the Northern Gold-Silver Vein Zone to the north of Apollo has now outlined a 350-metre-long zone of high-grade porphyry related veins (“CBM veins”).
TORONTO, April 15, 2025 /CNW/ – Collective Mining Ltd. (NYSE: CNL) (TSX: CNL) (“Collective” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce assay results for three holes drilled into the Apollo system (“Apollo”). Two of the holes were designed to test the potential extension of the recently discovered first high-grade sub-zone, while the third hole was drilled into the early-stage Northern Gold-Silver Vein Zone located above and to the north of the brecciated Apollo system. Apollo is the most advanced discovery made to date within the Company’s multi-target Guayabales Project in Caldas, Colombia.
The Company currently has eight drill rigs operating as part of its fully funded 70,000-metre drill program for 2025 with five rigs drilling at Apollo, one at the Tower target and two rigs at the San Antonio Project.
The 2025 objectives for the portion of the drilling program targeting the Apollo system are:
Drill test newly modeled high-grade sub-zone targets scattered throughout the top 1,000 vertical metres from surface to improve the grade profile (and size) of the system.
Grow the overall dimensions of the system by expanding vertically and laterally the recently discovered high-grade Ramp Zone.
Test the northern extension potential of Apollo at shallower elevations.
Expand and define the area of outcropping/shallow mineralization and test many drilling gaps within the internal block model from surface to a depth of 150 metres.
Approximately 115,000 metres of diamond drilling has been completed to date at the Guayabales Project, including 78,000 metres at Apollo. There are currently thirteen drill holes awaiting assays with results for most of these holes expected prior to the end of Q2 2025.
Ari Sussman, Executive Chairman commented: “Drilling continues to successfully intercept high-grade gold in the first of eleven potential high-grade sub-zones modelled by our technical team within the top 1,000 vertical metres of the Apollo system. The bonus of drilling the sub-zones is that if successful in finding more gold than previous modeled, then it should raise the overall grade of the system within the existing modelled envelope. If drilling continues to intersect high grades as new sub-zone targets are tested, the impact on the block model grade and inventory could be materially significant. Additionally, drilling at the poorly drilled Northern Gold-Silver Vein Zone has expanded the system to 350 metres in an east-west direction and it remains open in all directions for growth. Any metal defined in this zone is a bonus as it is additional to the main Apollo system.”
To watch a video of David Reading, Special Advisor to the Company and QP under NI43-101 explain today’s results please click on the link here.
Details (see Table 1 and Figures 1-5)
APC104-D6, collared from mother hole APC-104D, was drilled in a westerly direction below previously announced hole APC104-D2 and was designed to extend the first modelled, high-grade sub-zone by 70 metres vertically. The hole intercepted continuous mineralization over 263.85 metres which included the high-grade sub-zone and multiple zones of high-grade CBM veinlets with assay results as follows:
114.50 metres @ 5.00 g/t gold equivalent from 82.00 metres
31.75 metres @ 3.10 g/t gold equivalent from 303.75 metres
21.95 metres @ 3.08 g/t gold equivalent from 373.55 metres
17.15 metres @ 2.60 g/t gold equivalent from 444.80 metres
APC104-D7A, which is the final hole collared from mother hole APC-104D, was also drilled in a southwest direction on the edge of the Apollo system and clipped the eastern margin of the high-grade sub-zone with assay results as follows:
30.25 metres @ 5.10 g/t gold equivalent from 172.15 metres
The pilot drilling program designed to test the first modelled sub-zone has now defined an area of 180 metres of strike, by 70 metres in thickness and by 70 metres vertical with continuous high-grade mineralization. This sub-zone is still open in almost all directions and will be expanded as part of the current ongoing drill program. The Company also plans to drill at least eleven additional potential sub-zone targets in 2025 identified throughout top 1,000 vertical metres of the Apollo system. As a reminder, at a depth below 1,000 metres from surface, Apollo transitions in the Ramp Zone, which is a different deposit and style of mineralization.
APC-106D was drilled to the south from newly constructed Pad19 located north and outside the Apollo system. At 350 metres downhole, the alteration began to markedly increase and then the hole cut a zone of east-west trending, high-grade CBM veins. These new intercepts are a material extension to the high-grade Northern Gold-Silver Vein Zone, which now measures approximately 350 metres in strike and remains open in all directions for expansion. Assay results for hole APC-106D are as follows:
1.65 metres @ 20.81 g/t gold equivalent from 353.20 metres
1.90 metres @ 16.29 g/t gold equivalent from 388.30 metres
The intersection of shallow CBM veins in the northern portion of the Apollo system has positive implications for the presence of brecciated porphyry at depth as this zoning of mineralization is seen further south at Apollo. Following completion of the mother hole, directional drilling is currently in progress to test for a northern extension of the Apollo system at depth where the system remains open for expansion.
Table 1: Assays Results for Drill Holes APC104-D6, APC104-D7A and APC-106D
Hole #
From (m)
To (m)
Length (m)
Au g/t
Ag g/t
Cu %
Zn %
AuEq g/t*
APC104-D6
71.65
335.50
263.85
2.52
37
0.09
0.15
3.10
Incl.
82.00
196.50
114.50
4.19
53
0.15
0.15
5.00
& Incl-
303.75
335.50
31.75
2.24
58
0.06
0.33
3.10
and
373.55
395.50
21.95
2.96
10
0.03
0.11
3.08
and
444.80
461.95
17.15
2.29
22
0.06
0.04
2.60
APC104-D7A
160.90
298.60
137.70
1.87
61
0.22
0.14
2.94
Incl.
172.15
202.40
30.25
4.28
50
0.14
0.32
5.10
APC-106D
353.20
354.85
1.65
19.78
122
0.03
0.06
20.81
and
388.30
390.20
1.90
8.66
600
0.05
0.44
16.29
and
732.95
751.20
18.25
1.92
12
0.03
0.13
2.10
Incl.
732.95
738.80
5.85
4.50
27
0.04
0.35
4.88
*AuEq (g/t) is calculated as follows: (Au (g/t) x 0.97) + (Ag (g/t) x 0.015 x 0.85) + (Cu (%) x 1.44 x 0.95) + (Zn (%) x 0.43 x 0.85) utilizing metal prices of Ag – US$30/oz, Zn – US$1.25/lb, Cu – US$4.2/lb and Au – US$2,000/oz and recovery rates of 97% for Au, 85% for Ag, 95% for Cu and 85% for Zn. Recovery rate assumptions for metals are based on metallurgical results announced on October 17, 2023, April 11, 2024, and October 3, 2024. The recovery rate assumption for zinc is speculative as limited metallurgical work has been completed to date. True widths are unknown, and grades are uncut.
** See press release dated January 15, 2025, February 24, 2025, March 15, 2022 and May 9, 2022 for AuEq calculations.
Figure 1: Plan View of the Apollo System Highlighting Drill Holes in this Release (CNW Group/Collective Mining Ltd.)
Figure 2: Apollo System: High-Grade Over 1,200 Metres from Surface (CNW Group/Collective Mining Ltd.)
Figure 3: Section B – B’ Outlining the High-Grade Sub-Zone Intersected in Drill Hole APC104-D6 (CNW Group/Collective Mining Ltd.)
Figure 4: Drill Core Tray Photo Highlighting a Portion of APC104-D6 (CNW Group/Collective Mining Ltd.)
Figure 5: Plan View of the Guayabales Project Highlighting the Apollo Target Area (CNW Group/Collective Mining Ltd.)
About Collective Mining Ltd.
To see our latest corporate presentation and related information, please visit www.collectivemining.com.
Founded by the team that developed and sold Continental Gold Inc. to Zijin Mining for approximately $2 billion in enterprise value, Collective is a gold, silver, copper and tungsten exploration company with projects in Caldas, Colombia. The Company has options to acquire 100% interests in two projects located directly within an established mining camp with ten fully permitted and operating mines.
The Company’s flagship project, Guayabales, is anchored by the Apollo system, which hosts the large-scale, bulk-tonnage and high-grade gold-silver-copper-tungsten Apollo system. The Company’s objectives are to improve the overall grade of the Apollo system by systematically drill testing newly modeled potentially high-grade sub-zones, expand the Apollo system by stepping out along strike to the north and expanding the newly discovered high-grade Ramp Zone along strike and to depth, expand the Trap system and drill a series of newly generated targets including Tower and X.
Management and insiders own approximately 33.4% of the outstanding shares of the Company and as a result, are fully aligned with shareholders. The Company is listed on the NYSE American and TSX under the trading symbol “CNL” and on the FSE under the trading symbol “GG1”.
Qualified Person (QP) and NI43-101 Disclosure
David J Reading is the designated Qualified Person for this news release within the meaning of National Instrument 43-101 (“NI 43-101”) and has reviewed and verified that the technical information contained herein is accurate and approves of the written disclosure of same. Mr. Reading has an MSc in Economic Geology and is a Fellow of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining and of the Society of Economic Geology (SEG).
Technical Information
Samples were cut by Company personnel at Collective Mining’s core facility in Caldas, Colombia. Diamond drill core was sawed and then sampled in maximum 2 metres intervals, stopping at geological boundaries. Drill hole core diameter is a mix of PQ, HQ and NQ depending on the depth of the drill hole.
Core samples have been prepared and analyzed at ALS laboratory facilities in Medellin, Colombia and Lima, Peru. Blanks, duplicates, and certified reference standards are inserted into the sample stream to monitor laboratory performance. Crush rejects and pulps are kept and stored in a secured storage facility for future assay verification. No capping has been applied to sample composites. The Company utilizes a rigorous, industry-standard QA/QC program.
Information Contact:
Follow Executive Chairman Ari Sussman (@Ariski73) on X
This news release contains “forward-looking statements” and “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities legislation (collectively, “forward-looking statements”). All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements and are based on expectations, estimates and projections as at the date of this news release. Any statement that involves discussion with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions, future events or performance (often, but not always using phrases such as “plans”, “expects”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates”, or “believes” or variations (including negative variations) of such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved) are not statements of historical fact and may be forward-looking statements. In this news release, forward-looking statements relate, among other things, to: anticipated use of proceeds from the Offering and the exercise of Warrants; the anticipated advancement of mineral properties or programs; future operations; future recovery metal recovery rates; future growth potential of Collective; and future development plans.
These forward-looking statements, and any assumptions upon which they are based, are made in good faith and reflect our current judgment regarding future events including the direction of our business. Management believes that these assumptions are reasonable. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others: planed use of proceeds from the Offering and the exercise of the Warrants; risks related to the speculative nature of the Company’s business; the Company’s formative stage of development; the Company’s financial position; possible variations in mineralization, grade or recovery rates; actual results of current exploration activities; conclusions of future economic evaluations; fluctuations in general macroeconomic conditions; fluctuations in securities markets; fluctuations in spot and forward prices of gold, precious and base metals or certain other commodities; fluctuations in currency markets; change in national and local government, legislation, taxation, controls regulations and political or economic developments; risks and hazards associated with the business of mineral exploration, development and mining (including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual or unexpected formation pressures, cave-ins and flooding); inability to obtain adequate insurance to cover risks and hazards; the presence of laws and regulations that may impose restrictions on mining; employee relations; relationships with and claims by local communities and indigenous populations; availability of increasing costs associated with mining inputs and labour; the speculative nature of mineral exploration and development (including the risks of obtaining necessary licenses, permits and approvals from government authorities); and title to properties, as well as those risk factors discussed or referred to in the annual information form of the Company dated March 24, 2025. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this news release and the Company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results, except as may be required by applicable securities laws. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements and there may be other factors that cause results not to be anticipated, estimated or intended. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
Collective Mining Ltd. Logo (CNW Group/Collective Mining Ltd.)
We believe the next leg up for gold will be driven by a loss of confidence in mainstream positioning in equities, high-yield bonds and private equity. Concerns over tariffs may well have become a contributing factor to the gathering deflation of the financial asset bubble, but overanalyzing their possible impact obscures focus on market forces that were in motion long before “Liberation Day.”
The run to record gold bullion prices in 2024 and year-to-date 2025 has been mainly driven by official sector investment motivated in part by the gradual disintegration of the U.S. dollar-based system of international trade and the shakeup of the geopolitical landscape. Official sector demand has been augmented by record Asian and especially Chinese investment buying. These developments have been all but ignored by American and European retail and institutional investors captivated instead by overvalued technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. We believe investor exposure to gold, by several measures, is at historic lows.
As capital flees overvalued assets, gold’s scarcity and safe-haven appeal could drive its price higher.
The essence of a bear market1 is overvaluation and incorrect positioning. The shift in psychology that results from bear market losses may lead to a search for investment alternatives. We believe safe-haven assets, including gold, will capture resulting capital flows.
Gold’s capacity to absorb new inflows is limited by its tiny “float”2 relative to the scale of financial markets denominated in U.S. dollars. Gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) are likely recipients of the shift in capital flows we anticipate. Expanded flows into most gold ETFs must be accommodated by the purchase of physical metal. The migration of capital to gold and possibly other monetary metals could result in a price that is multiples of the current price of $3,000 per ounce.
We believe gold mining equities remain significantly undervalued and stand to benefit from further advances in metal prices. Mining profitability is leveraged to changes in gold prices, which move more quickly than costs. Therefore, in our view, mining shares offer significant torque potential relative to physical gold.
The Equity Bear Market is Not Caused by Tariffs Alone
Even as the Trump administration walks back its stance on tariffs, the contraction in equity market valuations likely has further to run. On April 6, 2025, veteran market analyst and technician Stan Weinstein stated:
“While many traders and investors incorrectly think that this devastating selloff is simply the result of ‘the tariffs,’ as we showed you in detail in last weekend’s update, ‘termites’ have been at work, weakening the market’s technical structure, for the past few months, even as several of the indexes (such as the S&P 500 Index3) were making new highs (and this was being ‘camouflaged’ by the narrow strength of the ‘Magnificent 7,’4just as was the case in late 1999-early 2000, before the internet bubble ‘popped,’ and in 1973 when the ‘Nifty Fifty’ 5of that era was ‘all the rage’ – but, in each and every case, the Advance-Decline Line6 had topped out well before the market reached those respective peaks). So what is really happening is that the upsetting fundamental ‘news’ is colliding with an already-weakened technical structure that was getting ready to collapse (so it most definitely couldn’t handle the added ‘worries’) – and, very simply, that ‘perfect storm’ combination has resulted in this ‘crash’!”
Market strategist Michael Belkin, who has correctly called major turning points in the stock market over many decades, noted in his report on March 24, 2025, that the fuel for a market decline could be seen in the record level of margin debt.
“The January margin debt level was $937 billion, equal to the Oct 2021 peak of $936 billion…. Margin debt is a great indication of animal spirits… It’s not what people think about the market (like the AAII Individual Investor Sentiment Index), it’s a measure of how much stock market risk they are willing to take on with leverage.”
You can access more insights from Michael Belkin by listening to our Sprott Radio podcast, The New Sector Rotation.
Carter Worth, a savvy market analyst and eponym of Worth Charting, noted in an April 6, 2025, commentary that the typical stock in the Russell 3000 Index, representing 98% of all investible capital in U.S. equity markets, peaked in October well before “tariffs” was on the tip of everyone’s tongue. Roughly 50% of the stocks in that Index are down 35% or more (as of March 31, 2025), giving the lie to Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent comment that the market carnage was confined mainly to the “Magnificent 7” names. The bear market is pervasive throughout all market sectors based on Worth’s analysis.
In our opinion, the current generation of investors has never experienced a genuine bear market. The notion that a bear market is simply a decline of 20% or more from the trading peak is overly superficial. The bear market of the 1970s was a grinding multi-year affair whose duration was sufficient to suffocate speculative psychology well into the 1980s.
It remains to be seen whether the current bear market will resemble one of the 1970s or of the post-2000 variety, which were mostly ended by Federal Reserve bailouts. History demonstrates that either outcome will be positive for gold.
Gold Positioning by Western Investors is Minimal
As of year-end 2024, financial advisors recorded the lowest exposure to gold since 2019.
Figure 1: Financial Advisor Allocations to Gold
Source: BofA Global Research. Data as of 2/26/2024.
Since 2020, holdings of gold-backed ETFs have declined by 585 metric tonnes, or 17.51% of total assets at year-end 2020. In 2024, holdings rose by 159 tonnes, leaving aggregate AUM by weight nearly 20% below the 2020 peak.
Figure 2: Gold-Backed ETF Holdings Have Declined Since 2019 Peak
Source: Meridian Macro Research. Data as of 3/31/2025.
Figure 3. Total World Gold ETFs, Change in Total Holdings by Year
Source: Meridian Macro Research. Data as of 3/31/2025.
Gold is Still Contrarian
Gold, long a Wall Street pariah, has only recently become popular as major investment firms jump on the bandwagon to make gold price forecasts undreamed of only six months ago. Bullion’s newfound popularity may have resulted in a short-term overbought condition, but we believe it has been remedied by the market meltdown.
On Saturday, April 5, 2025, the Financial Times reported that hedge funds had been hit with the largest margin calls since the 2020 COVID crisis. Gold may be temporarily caught up in this “sell everything” scenario. We believe gold’s checkback will prove to be temporary and will serve to correct recent overbought sentiment readings.
A bullish outlook7 for gold is still contrarian. The longer-term consensus forecast among investment firms polled by Bloomberg is for gold prices to decline steeply to $2,100 in 2028 (see Figure 4). We regard this groupthink as a positive sign that strategists see no appeal for metal exposure other than a tactical one beyond the very short term. Another way to put this bearish gold forecast into perspective is the unanimity of bullish calls from leading brokerage firms for the stock market at the beginning of 2025. Example forecasts for the S&P 500 Index include Deutsche Bank (7100), BMO and HSBC (6700), and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and Citi (all at 6500).
Figure 4. Consensus Forecasts on Gold Prices to 2028
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of March 31, 2025.
With Trump’s detonation of the “pax Americana” liberal world order in place since the end of World War II, “the U.S. dollar becomes a choice, not a necessity, and debt issuance on everything and everywhere — not just by the U.S. Treasury — becomes more risky and expensive” (from “Crashing the Car of Pax Americana Epsilon Theory”). The potential scope for reallocation to gold is suggested by the chart below:
Figure 5. Gold’s Share of Global Equity and Bond Securities
Source: BIS, ICE Benchmark Administration, Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Bank, World Federation of Exchanges, World Gold Council.
Gold is Scarce Relative to Financial Assets
Figure 6.
Source: Bloomberg and World Gold Council as of 2024.
The apocryphal tale that every molecule of gold ever mined remains above ground as potential supply (due to recycling, preservation in works of art, high-end jewelry, coins, hoarding and storage as a monetary reserve by central banks) is deeply flawed. As calculated and shown in the gold cube illustration in Figure 7, that quantity is 216,583 metric tonnes, which, for the sake of this exercise, equals $22 trillion at $3,000/oz.
However, only a small fraction of that quantity is potentially in play as “supply”. The gold cube illustration suggests the application of a 72% haircut to arrive at a number for physical gold that could be quasi-tradeable. That would include coins, low-end jewelry (think Middle Eastern souks) and assorted shapes and units not acceptable as good delivery by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), Commodity Exchange (COMEX) or Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). A tally of metal stored in London, COMEX or Shanghai Gold Exchange inventories results in a tradeable float of approximately $1 trillion.
Figure 7. Estimated Above-Ground Gold Holdings by Demand Categories
Source: Data as of 2/11/2025. Financial investment includes over-the-counter (OTC) and gold ETFs. World Gold Council, Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS.
This exercise leads to three conclusions:
First, the dollar amount of all gold is a small fraction of wealth denominated in U.S. dollars (USD), $100 trillion in global equities and $315 trillion of debt (Source: Institute of International Finance) as of year-end 2024. A small reallocation from liquid financial assets into gold, most easily accessed via gold-backed ETFs, could significantly increase the USD gold price.
Second, the recent scramble to relocate physical gold from London to New York ahead of tariffs illustrated the stark illiquidity of even the tradeable gold float. Following Trump’s victory, COMEX inventories rose 2.6x from approximately 17,000 to 40,000 ounces within a few months. The premium of New York versus London gold prices rose as high as $45 (1.5%) during that period as bullion banks and their clients hurried to withdraw London 400 ounce gold bars to be refined into 100 ounce COMEX good delivery, hardly the indication of a liquid market.
Third, the highly liquid paper gold trade rests on a shaky foundation, best imagined by John Exter*, as an inverted pyramid (see Figure 8). Paper gold includes all contracts traded between bullion banks and their clients in the form of swaps, options, futures and other derivatives. According to the LBMA, the daily trading volume of gold in 2024 was 33 million ounces or $80 billion compared to annual gold production of 120,000,000 ounces or $324 billion (2024 prices).
We reckon that the ratio of paper to physical trading is approximately 115 to 1 (based on LBMA and COMEX futures; see Figure 9). It is unclear, but unlikely, that the opaque LBMA market statistics include unreported over-the-counter derivative trades. The tariff scare illustrates the fragility of arrangements underlying the paper gold trade. In our opinion, the extension of credit among bullion banks and their clients will be more cautious following this episode. Our long-held belief (almost 30 years, as shown by my 1999 quote in the Appendix) is that any diminution of the paper gold trade will lead to improved price discovery for physical metal.
During Q1 2025, gold stocks (using GDX8 as a proxy) outperformed gold bullion with a gain of 35.56% compared to 19.02% for the metal. For many years, miners have underperformed the metal:
Figure 10. Gold Miners Offering Deep Value versus Gold Bullion
Source: Bloomberg as of 2/28/2025 (reflects past 37 years). Gold is measured by the GOLDS Comdty Spot Price and gold equities by the Philadelphia (PHLX) Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Sector Index (XAU). The Philadelphia (PHLX) Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is used versus the Philadelphia (PHLX) Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Sector Total Return Index (XXAU) for its longer historical track record. You cannot invest directly in an index.
However, value investors and stock pickers, please take note: it would be ill-advised to take a jaundiced view of each and every gold stock. There are many success stories within the sector. A better perspective can be seen from the wide dispersion of returns:
Figure 11. Gold Miners: A Dispersion of Returns
Source: Bloomberg and FactSet as of 12/31/2024. Gold Miners (GDM) represents the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR INDEX) and the constituents of GDX US Equity, which tracks the GDMNTR Index. You cannot invest directly in an index.
While not universal, we see growing evidence of intelligent deployment of capital, resistance to the siren call of investment bankers that “bigger is better” and recognition of the need to return capital to shareholders during this period of prosperity for the industry. More enlightened management teams are beginning to think in terms of returns on invested capital (see Figure 12), accountability in terms of per-share metrics and judicious deal making.
Figure 12. Gold Mining Companies Returns to Shareholders, Ex Big 3 (US$M)
Source: Mining Journal. Data as of 12/31/2024. “Ex Big 3” refers to Newmont, Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle Mines. A Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB), also known as a stock repurchase program, is a company’s plan to buy back its own outstanding shares from the market, usually over an extended period, and is subject to regulatory approval.
While many investors trade mining stocks according to every twitch and jiggle in the daily price, we believe a better guide is the average gold price received on a quarterly basis.
Figure 13. Average Gold Price (2023-2025)
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of March 31, 2025.
And for die-hard value investors, as we are, it is hard to find a more enticing sector in terms of EV/EBITDA9. What is especially appealing is that mining fundamentals, the main component of which is future gold prices, have fared relatively well in periods of recession and inflation.
Figure 14: Gold Miners Appear Undervalued Based on EV/EBITDA (2019-2025)
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of March 31, 2025.
Trend Acceleration Ahead?
We concluded our 2024 commentary with the same heading as above. We hypothesized that the catalysts for a step change in the advance of gold prices would be: “a bear market; a steep, lengthy retreat in cryptocurrencies; bond market disruption with interest rate risk morphing into credit risk; and unwanted, persistent U.S. dollar strength that threatens economic instability.”
We are batting about 75% on those calls. The retreat in cryptocurrencies has been steep, but it is too early to call it lengthy. Treasuries have thus far failed to serve as a safe haven and credit risk seems to be furiously springing leaks. The U.S. dollar has weakened instead of strengthening as a corollary of the “Trump trade” that we envisioned. However, an entrenched bear market and spreading credit risk are enough, in our opinion, to drive the gold price substantially higher. Mining stocks, especially those well-managed and positioned, stand to benefit most from the step change in the rate of gold’s advance that we envision.
Appendix
From the dustbin.
For illustrative purposes only.
Footnotes
1
A bear market is often characterized by negative investor sentiment, leading to a downward trend in market performance over time.
2
The gold “float” is the amount of gold readily available for trading in the market.
3
The S&P 500 Index (Standard & Poor’s 500) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States.
4
The Magnificent 7 refers to a group of seven major tech companies known for their significant stock growth and market influence.
5
The term Nifty Fifty was an informal designation for a group of roughly fifty large-cap stocks on the New York Stock Exchange during the 1960s and 1970s, known for their consistent earnings, considered solid buy-and-hold growth stocks.
6
The advance-decline line (A/D line) is a technical indicator used in stock market analysis to measure market breadth. It tracks the difference between the number of stocks that are rising in price (advancing) and the number of stocks that are falling in price (declining) on a given day.
7
A bull market is characterized by rising prices and investor optimism.
8
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX®) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), which is intended to track the overall performance of companies involved in the gold mining industry.
9
EV/EBITDA, a popular valuation metric, compares a company’s enterprise value (EV) to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to assess its value and profitability.
Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – April 10, 2025) – EMX Royalty Corporation (NYSE American: EMX) (TSXV: EMX) (the “Company” or “EMX”) is pleased to announce that it has received an early final property payment from AbraSilver Resource Corp. (“AbraSilver”) totaling US$6.85 million. This payment, originally due by July 31, 2025, was completed ahead of schedule in exchange for a reduced total obligation from the original US$7.0 million.
EMX retains a 1% NSR on AbraSilver’s Diablillos project, an advanced silver and gold project in Argentina. EMX congratulates AbraSilver on its recent C$58.5 million equity financing to accelerate advancement of Diablillos.
EMX will use the proceeds of the early property payment, together with cash on hand, to make a US$10 million principal payment toward its senior secured term loan facility due to Franco-Nevada Corporation. Following this early principal payment, EMX’s total long-term debt outstanding will be reduced from US$35 million to US$25 million.
About EMX – EMX is a precious and base metals royalty company. EMX’s investors are provided with discovery, development, and commodity price optionality, while limiting exposure to risks inherent to operating companies. The Company’s common shares are listed on the NYSE American Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol “EMX”. Please see www.EMXroyalty.com for more information.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release may contain “forward-looking statements” that reflect the Company’s current expectations and projections about its future results. These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding perceived merit of properties, exploration results and budgets, mineral reserves and resource estimates, work programs, capital expenditures, timelines, strategic plans, market prices for precious and base metal, or other statements that are not statements of fact. When used in this news release, words such as “estimate,” “intend,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “will”, “believe”, “potential” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, which, by their very nature, are not guarantees of the Company’s future operational or financial performance, and are subject to risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause the Company’s actual results, performance, prospects or opportunities to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and factors may include, but are not limited to unavailability of financing, failure to identify commercially viable mineral reserves, fluctuations in the market valuation for commodities, difficulties in obtaining required approvals for the development of a mineral project, increased regulatory compliance costs, expectations of project funding by joint venture partners and other factors.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this news release or as of the date otherwise specifically indicated herein. Due to risks and uncertainties, including the risks and uncertainties identified in this news release, and other risk factors and forward-looking statements listed in the Company’s MD&A for the quarter ended December 31, 2024 (the “MD&A”), and the most recently filed Annual Information Form (“AIF”) for the year ended December 31, 2024, actual events may differ materially from current expectations. More information about the Company, including the MD&A, the AIF and financial statements of the Company, is available on SEDAR at www.sedarplus.ca and on the SEC’s EDGAR website at www.sec.gov.
DOGE leader says American people ‘have a right to see their gold’
Tesla CEO and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) head Elon Musk on Sunday voiced his support for setting up a livestream of Fort Knox and its gold reserves.
In response to a question about Musk checking on the gold at Fort Knox, the billionaire said he thought it “would be awesome to livestream Fort Knox.”
Fort Knox’s U.S. Bullion Depository is one of several places across the country where the U.S. government keeps its gold reserves. It is located in Kentucky.
Elon Musk speaks during a town hall in Green Bay, Wis., on March 30, 2025. (ROBIN LEGRAND/AFP via Getty Images)
“I mean, that would be really fun. And after all, it is actually the gold of the American people, so the American people, it seems to me, have a right to see their gold,” he said.
“Hopefully, it looks really cool. You know, open the doors like, ‘Is it there? Is that really gold? Let’s check.’ Maybe it’ll be really interesting,” he continued.
The entrance to Fort Knox is seen on May 31, 2021. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)
Musk said he was “all for it” and that President Donald Trump “says he’s interested in doing it, so hopefully it happens.”
Conspiracy theories about the status of Fort Knox’s gold have been rampant on social media, and Musk and Trump have also speculated about whether the bullion remains present at the highly secure depository, saying it needs to be confirmed.
“Who is confirming that gold wasn’t stolen from Fort Knox?” the DOGE head wrote on social media in mid-February, speculating that “maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not.”
Musk has weighed in on a Fort Knox livestream several times in recent weeks.
In mid-February, for instance, he said on X that it “would be so cool to do a live video walkthrough of Fort Knox.” He has also said the “ratings on a live broadcast of Fort Knox would be” two fire emojis.
Both current and former Treasury secretaries have said the gold was present at Fort Knox.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a February interview with journalist Dan O’Donnell that “we do an audit every year, so the audit that ended the year Sept. 30, 2024, all the gold is present and accounted for.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters outside the White House on March 13, 2025. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
In August 2017, Steven Mnuchin, who served as Treasury secretary in Trump’s first administration, took a trip to Fort Knox, according to the U.S. Mint’s website. Then-Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin and members of Congress accompanied him.
“The gold was there when I visited it. I hope nobody’s moved it. I’m sure they haven’t,” Mnuchin told CNBC last month. “I was the first Treasury secretary to go there in, I think, over 50 years. There’s very serious security protocols in place, obviously, to protect the gold that I can’t talk about. But we went, we saw it, and if President Trump wants it to be audited, that’s obviously something that can be easily done.”
At the time of his Fort Knox visit, he posted on then-Twitter, “Thanks to @usmint staff for hosting at #FortKnox #USBD. First @USTreasury Secretary to visit since John Snyder in 1948. Glad gold is safe!”
The United States Bullion Depository is shown at Fort Knox. (Luke Sharrett/Getty Images/File)
Fort Knox is home to 147.3 million fine troy ounces of gold bullion in deep storage, according to data published by the Treasury Department in late February.
That represented a “book value” of $6.2 billion. However, based on the price of the precious metal as of Tuesday, Fort Knox’s gold is worth more than $459.2 billion.
The U.S. Mint said on a webpage dedicated to the U.S. Bullion Depository at Fort Knox that the “only gold removed has been very small quantities used to test the purity of gold during regularly scheduled audits,” and other than that, no gold “has been transferred to or from the Depository for many years.”
Overall, the U.S. Treasury has nearly 261.5 million troy ounces of gold bullion and gold coins “across various U.S. Treasury-maintained locations” in late February, the department reported.
Michael Dorgan, Bailee Hill and Eric Revell contributed to this report.
The recent record high price for gold tells us war approaches. The roll-over for the stock market and cryptocurrencies tells us the debt based Western Financial system is in the process of crashing.
At times the price for gold acts like a thermometer for geopolitical events. Gold says we are going to war.
Israel and its wholly owned pet poodle, DJT, are about to launch a massive attack on Iran based on the fiction that Iran is seconds away from possessing a nuclear weapon. Since Israel possesses some 200-400 nuclear weapons and is not in compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty they certainly don’t want anyone else in the neighborhood to be able to defend themselves.
Israel’s control of so many WMD is not actually a problem for the US because the Symington Amendment prevents the US from providing military or economic aid to countries who do not comply with the regulations of the IAEA. Israel does not comply with the NNPT or the IAEA but you will be pleased to know that Iran is in compliance with both the NNPT and the IAEA in all aspects.
We know the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program for two important reasons. (1) The top US government official responsible for all our 18 intelligence agencies went on record a long time ago saying, “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.”
No, sorry. I was mistaken. It was last week.
The 2nd proof of Iran’s nuclear weapons program is the statement by Benjamin Netanyahu in 1992 that Iran was on the verge of having nuclear weapons. Since Netanyahu is one of the top three liars in Israel, we know Iran has no nuclear weapons program.
Iran is not the enemy of the United States. Iran is supported by both Russian and China. Any attack on Iran will be responded to. Given Iran’s 100% successful attacks on Israel in 2024, I think Iran can destroy Israel all by itself but it does have backup.
Iran has no nuclear weapons program. Israel is the only country in the Middle-East controlling nuclear WMD.
If a girl scout troop with fifteen 12-year-old girls survived but were equipped with three BB guns, two slingshots and a bow and arrow they could close the 39 km wide Strait of Hormuz. 25% of the world’s oil and a third of the world’s LNG passes through that passageway.
A girl scout troop could drive the price of oil $300-$400 a barrel overnight. That would stop the world’s economy in its tracks.
Anything worth doing is worth doing right. Anything not worth doing is not worth doing.
If some group of religious fanatics wanted to destroy the world so they could take over, they would try to attack Iran in the next couple of weeks.
