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Proven ProbableCategory: Precious Metals
Since 2000, the dawn of radical monetary policy, gold has outperformed the major asset classes, as depicted in Figure 1. In the first decade of the gold bull market, mining equities significantly outperformed bullion. However, following gold’s August 2011 peak, gold mining equities have significantly underperformed the metal’s price, as shown in Figure 2. There are several possible explanations for this incongruity, many of which are already reflected in the ultra-low valuations of gold mining stocks. These reasons will be reviewed and discussed in the following paragraphs.
Of the several reasons for underperformance, the most significant impediment to higher gold stock valuations, in our opinion, is the implicit consensus that gold priced in the current neighborhood of $2,000 per ounce is not sustainable. We believe the notion that gold mining stocks offer perpetual optionality and leverage to still higher gold prices is heavily discounted, even dismissed when weighing their pros and cons. Currently, physical gold is trading a few percentage points below its all-time highs (~$2,075 in August 2020). In our view, there is realistic potential for a mean reversion trade in which a small percentage gain in the gold price above its previous peak may lead to outsized returns for gold mining equities.
Figure 1. Gold’s Long-Term Outperformance vs. U.S. Stocks & Bonds, USD (2000-2023)
Source: Bloomberg. Period from 12/31/1999 to 6/30/2023. Gold is measured by GOLDS Comdty Spot Price; S&P 500 TR is measured by the SPX; US Agg Bond Index is measured by the Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Total Return Value Unhedged USD (LBUSTRUU Index); and the U.S. Dollar is measured by DXY Curncy. You cannot invest directly in an index. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Figure 2. Gold Mining Stocks Have Underperformed Physical Gold (2011-2023)
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 7/11/2023. Gold is measured by GOLDS Comdty Spot Price; Gold Equities are measured by VanEck Gold Miners ETF.1 Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Gold Mining Equity Underperformance: Unpacking the Reasons
A. Dilution
In our opinion, share issuance is one of the major reasons for the disconnect between the gold price and mining equities. Share issuance has often been a necessary but justifiable evil to finance capital projects. However, in all too many instances, share issuance has resulted from poor capital discipline, ill-advised M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and disregard of per-share metrics concerning reserve and production ounces, cash flow and earnings. Few corporate websites or investor presentations display these per-share metrics, depriving investors of a clear and accessible method to analyze management performance. Although the impact of equity dilution is disclosed in financial statements and is routinely researched by the Sprott investment team, deciphering the debilitating effect of serial dilution is a laborious task that most generalist investors may be reluctant to undertake.
B. Subpar Return on Equity (ROE) or Misallocation of Capital
Figure 3 illustrates how the 2011 gold price peak triggered a CapEx (capital expenditures) surge in 2012 and 2013. The drop in the gold price after 2011 doomed the industry to subpar returns on capital for the next five years.
Following the 2012-2013 CapEx binge, the gold mining industry drastically cut expenditures from 2015 to 2021, in response to declining gold prices and profits. Although CapEx spending began to recover in 2022, the level (not inflation-adjusted) still fell far short of the peak 10 years prior, despite current global mine production being ~20% greater than a decade ago. We believe that this CapEx drought means that capacity added during the industry’s nuclear winter (2013-2020) translates into unrecognized scarcity value. In all probability, the replacement cost of existing capacity markedly exceeds the stated book value. The hurdle rate to build new mines will most likely require significantly higher metal prices.
Figure 3. Gold Miners CapEx Spending in US$ Billions (2007-2023)
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 6/30/2023. Based on the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), a modified equal dollar-weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Figure 4. The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of Gold Producers (2005-2022)
Source: BMO. Data as of 12/31/2022. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
C. Jurisdictional Risk
The spread of resource nationalism to many developing countries, which host otherwise attractive gold deposits, has escalated the risk premium for large new capital projects. In our ongoing internal assessment of geopolitical risk, we’ve seen a significant contraction in the map of favorable jurisdictions over the past decade. We perceive the rule of law to be compromised in many jurisdictions across Latin American, Asian and African nations. Political risk has resulted in a difficult-to-overcome valuation discount for companies with production weighted to certain regions. To address this jurisdictional valuation handicap, many companies are acquiring assets in politically “safe” locales, mainly in North America and Australia. As a result, we’re seeing a rise in M&A activity driven by a desire to alter the geographical footprint.
D. A Decade of Margin Erosion
In 2013, the average AISC (all-in-sustaining costs) for gold production was $1,100 per ounce. Today, it stands at roughly $1,250, representing an increase of 13.6%. The yearly average gold price is shown in Figure 5. Using estimates from BMO Capital Markets, the AISC, including growth capital, has risen over the past decade from $1,484 to $1,612 per ounce. The potential for margin improvement, which started in 2019, has been overshadowed by the escalating cost of production and the capital expenditure required to replace existing capacity and reserves. However, we believe that the trend of margin-eroding cost inflation is beginning to plateau and may soon be a thing of the past. If bullion prices stabilize at current levels, the prospects for industry-wide margin expansion could be excellent.
Figure 5. Yearly Average Gold Price (2013-2022)
Source: BMO Capital Markets; Company Reports. Data as of 12/31/2022. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
E. CapEx Bloat/Timeline Stretch
The timeline for constructing new mining and processing capacity has lengthened over the last decade. One major reason for this is the increasingly stringent permitting requirements related to environmental and social factors. The time gap between the discovery of a significant new ore body and cash generation now easily exceeds 10 years compared to 6 years only a decade ago. This increased timeline translates into capital being tied up without returns for prolonged periods, leading to higher interest burdens and heightened susceptibility to various risks, including supply chain disruptions, weather events and political changes in host countries. Particularly vulnerable are mine developers with single or few assets, as they often face unavoidable and unanticipated dilutive financings.
Launch of GLD and other Gold Bullion ETFs
Prior to the launch of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in 2004, equity investors bullish on the gold price had no alternative but to invest in gold mining shares. The overwhelming success of GLD and other instruments backed by or closely tied to the physical metal has cannibalized demand for gold mining shares. In 2010, the aggregate market capitalization of gold mining equities stood at roughly $300 billion. By the end of 2022, this figure had dwindled to approximately $260 billion. In contrast, gold-backed ETFs had accumulated assets totaling nearly $180 billion by the end of 2022. Gold exposure for equity investors, once the exclusive realm of mining shares, is now shared with highly liquid gold surrogates traded worldwide. An obvious question arises: What role do gold mining stocks play in constructing investment strategy? The subsequent paragraphs will aim to provide an answer.
Mean Regression Ahead?
Gold mining stocks are inextricably connected to the price behavior of gold bullion. In our view, a bullish outlook for the metal far outweighs any other rationale for owning them. As we have seen, the response of gold mining equities to the bull market in bullion has been disappointing.
What appears to be lacking is a decisive bullion price breakout that leaves the psychological $2,000 per ounce threshold in the rearview mirror. We anticipate that such a breakout is on the horizon, potentially in the not-so-distant future. However, until it materializes, it remains a macroeconomic speculation entertained by few. Our speculative reasoning can be explored further in previous commentaries (Is My Money Safe?, Connecting a Few Dots and The Dollar, Safe Haven or Leaky Lifeboat?). Perhaps the gold price needs a period of further consolidation to digest its ~6% year-to-date gain and the ~60% increase since the August 2018 low. In our view, any further period of uncertainty regarding the potential upside in the gold price provides the last opportunity to allocate into this neglected sector at highly advantageous valuations.
Gold bullion has unequivocally demonstrated its long-term value as a risk diversifier. The notion that it deserves to be positioned as a defensive anchor in a balanced equity investment strategy (and perhaps in a more meaningful ratio than fixed income) is gaining traction. Yet, the broad acceptance of this notion has not sparked significant investment flows. Given escalating macroeconomic risks, the fact that gold remains under-owned appears as incongruous as the disconnect between the metal and its related mining shares this sector at highly advantageous valuations.
Figures 6A and 6B attest to the sparsity of gold ownership by investment managers in Western capital markets.
Figure 6A. Market Vane Sentiment Index & Gold Price (2006-2023)
Source: Bloomberg and Market Vane. Data as of 6/30/2023. You cannot invest directly in an index. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Figure 6B.
Source: World Gold Council. Data as of 6/30/2023. You cannot invest directly in an index. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Gold Acts as a Portfolio Risk Diversifier and Safe Haven Asset
The investment rationale for gold is easily summarized as a risk diversifier and a safe haven asset without parallel. The argument has been set forth in clinical and academic terms by many credible proponents. Convincing discussion of its benefits in terms of efficient frontier analysis can be found (see World Gold Council: The Case for a Strategic Allocation to Gold). More controversial and less clinical is the idea that gold mining stocks might add tactical investment performance that could far outsize investment performance benefits from the plain vanilla prospects for the metal.
The time for accumulation is now, not after the investment case becomes obvious based on a new gold price paradigm that $2,000 is the floor, not the ceiling. A major barrier to the mean reversion thesis for mining stocks is the confusion between nominal and inflation-adjusted prices. Based on recent history, the superficial view is that when the metal price approaches the magic number of $2,000 per ounce, the potential for further upside is exhausted and a signal to initiate short positions. On an inflation-adjusted basis, today’s $2,000 gold price is ~30% below the peak in 2011 and ~50% below the peak of $800 in 1980. Fixation on nominal prices ignores the fact that macroeconomic realities in favor of gold have improved significantly since previous peaks.
The total market cap of all precious metal mining equities traded on developed markets is ~$260 billion today, slightly more than the market cap of Bank of America. The total market cap of the combined five largest precious metal mining companies is nearly $150 billion, leaving a mere $120 billion for all remaining precious metal mining equities. Imagine the scramble if pension funds like CalPERS or Ontario Teachers were to decide to invest just 1% of their assets into precious metal equities. This is not an outlandish thought. Pension funds in developed markets like Canada are benchmarked against indices with higher weighting in precious metal miners than in the U.S.
Gold Stock Undervaluation
Gold mining stocks are undervalued on a relative and absolute basis. Gold mining equities are trading multiples lower than the S&P 500 Index and with greater profitability and lower leverage.
Figure 7. Gold Miners Present Attractive Relative Value and Fundamentals
Source: Bloomberg as of 3/31/2023. Gold Miners (GDM) represents the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM INDEX). EBITDA refers to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. S&P 500 is measured by the SPX Index. You cannot invest directly in an index. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
A decade of subpar investment returns has put a squeeze on exploration expenditures. We estimated that the cost of discovering new ounces has risen over 100% over the past decade. As already discussed, the barriers to building new mines have increased significantly due to geopolitical and permitting issues. These three factors suggest that the value of existing mines is extremely understated on industry balance sheets. The replacement cost of the current mining infrastructure is potentially 30% to 100% higher than that represented by financial statements and the amount of depreciation that has been added due to the age of the project in question.
Systematic Undervaluation of Mining Equities
The conventional valuation methodology for gold miners is based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The three inputs for the calculation are existing reserves, the cost of producing those reserves and the future gold price. After discounting future cash flows at a uniform time value of money, the DCF analysis arrives at a net asset value (NAV) and, when compared to the enterprise value of any given company, provides a premium or discount to NAV. Only the first factor is objective, while the second requires expert analysis of the particulars of a company’s producing assets. The third and most critical factor is the future gold price.
The conventional practice to model future cash flows, among almost all highly influential brokerage analysts, is to employ spot metal prices for the current and following year, after which a secular decline in the price is imposed. As noted by Michael Solomon, discounting the future gold price arbitrarily impairs valuation and contravenes gold’s historical annual appreciation rate of 8% in USD terms since 1971. Moreover, Solomon notes: “A DCF analysis of any typical company would value the first five to ten years of estimated free cash flows and would calculate a terminal value on the assumption that the business is a going concern.” One method would be to apply a multiple to the final year and discount that back to the present. Solomon goes on to say: “Yet, gold mining analysts assume no terminal value for a mining company. … The assumptions underlying the discounted cash flow analysis are far from realistic, and it becomes punitive.”
One could argue that even a flawed valuation methodology, if applied consistently, at least enables an effective ranking of different company fundamentals. To this we say that comparative analysis aside, the depiction of valuation through a negatively biased lens affects the appraisals and impressions of generalist investors who might be investigating the gold mining sector for the first time. It can be none other than off-putting.
In addition, the auto bearish framework corrupts the thinking of gold mining managements resulting in underinvestment. This can be seen in the already depicted secular decline of exploration expenditures and a long-term constriction on future global production. Given the ever-increasing lead times between discovery and new mine completion, further contraction in reserve-to-production ratios is inevitable. It can be seen in Figure 8 that global gold production is beginning to flatten out:
Figure 8. Annual Gold Production (2010-2022)
Source: World Gold Council, S&P Global Market Intelligence. Based on data available as of 3/31/2023. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
A consequence of underinvestment in future gold production will be increased M&A activity when major producers have little alternative but to take out smaller producers at substantial premiums. As noted by Solomon, the growing wave of M&A within the gold mining industry can be seen as a “Darwinian response to extinction.”
The prioritization of discounted cash flow (DCF) models to evaluate projects by company managements and equities by investment analysts is harmful both to capital allocation decisions and the appraisal of company valuations. Seymour Schulich, founder of Franco-Nevada Mining Corporation and one of the keenest minds in the mining industry, explained this to me over 20 years ago during a site visit. At the June 15 RBC Capital Markets Global Mining & Materials Conference, mining impresario Robert Friedland describes DCF valuation methodology as “idiotic”: “The management of these banks that allow analysts to create these absurd models, they should just change their minds. Because the real-world value of a Tier 1 mine is much more than an NPV model, and NPV modeling is not the only way to model a mine.” DCF overvalues a dollar of cash generation today relative to the dollars generated 10 years in the future. Such Mr. Magoo-like near-sighted thinking also distorts analysis by managements and investment bankers of prospective M&A transactions.
Overweighting the consideration of near-term cash flows against the possibilities for game-changing future cash flows is, in many cases, just an indication of ground-hugging (CYA) risk adversity and a recipe for corporate shrinkage. Producers have little appetite to displease shareholders by acquiring non-producing assets. This has resulted in a wide disparity between large- and small-cap gold mining equity valuations.
Exploration and development stage gold mining companies routinely trade at extreme discounts to their producing counterparts. Speaking as experienced (and appropriately bruised) investors in precious metals mining equities, we have seen cycles like this play out before. Mid- to smaller-cap equities can be highly sensitive to the dynamic of value creation through the process of discovery and mine-building. On the other hand, that dynamic rarely moves the needle in the larger-cap sector. While the potential for mean regression exists across the sector, we believe the opportunity is greatest among mid- to small-cap securities.
Figure 9. Junior Miners Inexpensive Relative to Senior Miners (2001-2023)
Source: BMO Capital Markets, FactSet. Data as of 4/19/2023. “Junior” gold mining companies generally have market capitalizations under $500 million and are considered riskier than larger, “senior” gold mining companies, which generally have market capitalizations greater than $500 million. You cannot invest directly in an index. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Potential for Mean Regression Trade
Gold is considered a safe haven asset; it may protect capital but does not provide investment opportunity. By contrast, gold mining stocks are not considered safe assets as they incorporate risk, but they offer the potential for building significant capital. Gold and related mining stocks are joined at the hip. One cannot invest in the latter without having a point of view on the former. The key judgment is whether the metal is correctly priced in nominal currency terms. That requires judgment on the quality of the currency in which it is priced. Gold has risen against all paper currencies, including the USD. We believe the notion that a strong U.S. dollar is negative for gold is laughable. While the U.S. dollar might look “strong” against other paper currencies from time to time, relative performance does not equate to inherent strength. The dollar has been persistently weak against gold since 1971. Since the last remnant of gold backing was removed by Nixon over 50 years ago, there has been no such thing as an inherently strong dollar on a sustained basis.
Gold mining equities have two things going for them. First, they have quietly become very cheap stocks, are seriously unloved and represent a contrarian’s delight. Second, they offer low-risk exposure to what we regard as the very likely prospect of the continuing and possibly accelerating downgrade of the USD. A reversion to inflation-adjusted 2011 levels would see the GDX and GDXJ rally over 110% and 300% respectively. Our expectation is for small and mid-cap companies to rally harder than their larger-cap peers.
Uncritical acceptance of the pricing of real assets in nominal dollars signifies the nearly universal brainwashing of establishment economists, investment thought leaders and policymakers. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported monthly is widely accepted as an accurate gauge of inflation and, by inference, the integrity of the U.S. dollar as a store of value. Since 1983, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which oversees the calculation of the CPI index, has “updated” its methodology 25 times. (Grant’s 1/27/23-Inflation for the Long Run). In 21 out of 25 of those instances, the adjustments caused the reported level of inflation to be lower than previously stated. A sign of market distrust of the CPI inflation measure is the divergence between TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities) and the price of gold. Between 2007 and 2021, the correlation between TIPS and the price of gold was 90%. The breakdown is depicted in Figure 10.
Figure 10. Gold vs. 10-YR U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) (2006-2023)
Source: U.S. Treasury and World Gold Council. You cannot invest directly in an index. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
It is in the self-interest of the political and financial establishment to portray a sanguine economic picture. Years of “sly cheating” that “continues apace” by the makers of monetary and fiscal policy (Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, 6/2/23) condition the investment consensus into uncritical acceptance of an alternate reality. Economic indicators are routinely tweaked and massaged for mass consumption. For example, both Non-Farm Payrolls and retail sales reports, both widely followed and capable of moving markets, are frequently distorted, whenever necessary, by seasonal adjustment factors arbitrarily tweaked for cosmetic purposes. The line between propagators and consumers of misinformation is indistinguishable. Perpetuation of distorted information is mutually convenient.
Issuance of new rounds of government debt seems overly dependent on the suspension of critical thinking. With government activity now comprising 27% of GDP, the inability to finance would crush economic activity. Post the recent debt ceiling deal, as noted by Meridian Macro Research, “public debt soared more than $1 trillion, the biggest non-crisis debt monthly increase on record.” Trust that the U.S. dollar will remain a viable global reserve asset is vital. Absent this delusion, damage to U.S. credit would be irreparable.
It would seem that the gravitational limits of credulity are being probed. Based on our expectation for spreading skepticism, we believe that gold will break out to new all-time highs in inflation-adjusted terms. That would translate into a gain of roughly 30% in nominal dollars, or $2,500-$2,600, simply to square with the fundamental forces that have been gathering since the previous nominal peak of $1,920 a decade ago. Should gold do so, the death of the U.S. dollar as a safe asset would become manifest. Mean regression based on our analysis could equate to 50% to 150% upside for precious metals equities versus gold itself with smaller, more overlooked stocks having the potential to benefit by an even larger degree. Gold mining stocks might once again bask in the sunshine of a decade ago.
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Face Sampling Returns 19.91 g/t Au over 35 m, Peak Value of 246 g/t Au
North Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – July 13, 2023) – Lion One Metals Limited (TSXV: LIO) (OTCQX: LOMLF) (ASX: LLO) (“Lion One” or the “Company”) is pleased to report successful mining results and better than expected grades from underground developments at its 100% owned Tuvatu Alkaline Gold Project in Fiji.
Face sampling on the URW1a lode returned 19.91 g/t Au over the first 35 m of mining, while face sampling on the URW1b lode returned 9.60 g/t Au over the first 22.5 m of mining. The URW1 lode system was originally modelled as a single lode with average grade of 14.05 g/t Au. The grade from the URW1a lode is therefore stronger than anticipated while the grade from the URW1b lode represents additional upside.
Highlights of Face Sampling Results:
- 43.49 g/t Au over 2.1 m (including 61.67 g/t Au over 1.40m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_17)
- 34.33 g/t Au over 2.4 m (including 56.56 g/t Au over 1.10m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_12)
- 37.00 g/t Au over 2.0 m (including 56.01 g/t Au over 1.32m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_11)
- 31.62 g/t Au over 2.33 m (including 50.88 g/t Au over 0.63m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_16)
- 34.61 g/t Au over 2.1 m (including 52.81 g/t Au over 1.30m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_13)
- 31.52 g/t Au over 2.0 m (including 246.79 g/t Au over 0.23m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_02)
- 31.90 g/t Au over 1.9 m (including 60.23 g/t Au over 0.50m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_08)
- 25.61 g/t Au over 2.0 m (including 66.4 g/t Au over 0.75m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_01)
- 17.32 g/t Au over 1.96 m (including 25.42 g/t Au over 0.31m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_07)
- 16.09 g/t Au over 2.0 m (including 35.20 g/t Au over 0.52m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_11)
- 12.41 g/t Au over 2.2 m (including 30.50 g/t Au over 0.60m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_15)
- 15.77 g/t Au over 1.73 m (including 48.51 g/t Au over 0.36m) (1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_17)
Lion One Chairman and CEO Walter Berukoff commented: “We’re very pleased with the results from our face sampling program on the URW1a and URW1b lodes at Tuvatu. Face samples are collected directly from the mining drive and as such they provide the most accurate representation of the grade of the material that we’re mining, and the results to date are much greater than expected. These results provide the first comprehensive view of the grade distribution within these lodes. Tuvatu has once again outperformed and as underground developments progress we’re beginning to see the true potential of the system.”
Face Sampling
Table 1. Highlights of Face Sampling from the URW1a and URW1b lodes
| Face ID | From | To | Interval (m) | Au (g/t) | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_02 | 0.67 | 1.35 | 0.68 | 88.58 | |
| including | 0.67 | 0.90 | 0.23 | 246.79 | |
| and | 0.90 | 1.35 | 0.45 | 7.71 | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_01 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 66.40 | |
| including | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 51.20 | |
| and | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.19 | 111.20 | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_17 | 0.70 | 2.10 | 1.40 | 61.67 | |
| including | 0.70 | 1.35 | 0.65 | 33.47 | |
| and | 1.35 | 2.10 | 0.75 | 86.11 | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_11 | 0.68 | 2.00 | 1.32 | 56.01 | |
| including | 0.68 | 1.20 | 0.52 | 75.53 | |
| and | 1.20 | 1.70 | 0.50 | 36.21 | |
| and | 1.70 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 55.19 | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_13 | 0.80 | 2.10 | 1.30 | 52.81 | |
| including | 0.80 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 45.19 | |
| and | 1.60 | 2.10 | 0.50 | 65.01 | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_12 | 1.30 | 2.40 | 1.10 | 56.56 | |
| including | 1.30 | 1.90 | 0.60 | 64.92 | |
| and | 1.90 | 2.40 | 0.50 | 46.52 | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_16 | 0.76 | 1.93 | 1.17 | 37.21 | |
| including | 0.76 | 1.39 | 0.63 | 50.88 | |
| and | 1.39 | 1.86 | 0.47 | 13.08 | |
| and | 1.86 | 1.93 | 0.07 | 76.15 | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_08 | 1.10 | 1.90 | 0.80 | 37.07 | |
| including | 1.10 | 1.50 | 0.40 | 43.56 | |
| and | 1.50 | 1.90 | 0.40 | 30.57 | |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_11 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 27.87 | |
| including | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 19.94 | |
| and | 0.48 | 0.87 | 0.39 | 23.62 | |
| 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 69.93 | ||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_07 | 0.00 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 25.59 | |
| including | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 25.70 | |
| and | 0.45 | 0.76 | 0.31 | 25.42 |
Figure 1. Location of the URW1a and URW1b lodes in relation to the Tuvatu system. Mining is progressing north along both the URW1a lode (modelled in purple) and the URW1b lode (modelled in green). Inset image shows the location of the URW1a and URW1b lodes in relation to the Tuvatu system, with all other lodes shown in pale grey. Underground developments are shown in red. The dashed black square is the area highlighted in Figure 2. The URW1 mineralized trend has a N-S strike length of approximately 300 m and a vertical extent also of approximately 300 m. The URW1a and URW1b lodes occupy approximately 75m of this mineralized strike length. Extensional drilling is ongoing.
To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/2178/173370_9cc80cc694a50a8e_001full.jpg
Figure 2. Plan map showing the location and face grades returned from face sampling in URW1a and URW1b. The URW1a mining drive is on the left and the URW1b mining drive is on the right. Face grades in g/t Au and their corresponding sample numbers are shown in white. The locations of the face samples are indicated by the sub-horizontal lines. Grid lines are 10 m apart. Mining is ongoing and progressing to the north.
To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/2178/173370_figure2.jpg
Mining of the URW1 lodes has been ongoing since May 18th, 2023, and is being conducted through the use of airleg mining. Mining is progressing in a step-wise fashion with the mining drives advancing in increments of 2 m. Prior to blasting, a face sample is collected across the face of the advancing drive, with the sample being oriented approximately perpendicular to the strike of the mineralized lode (Figure 3). These samples lines are typically around 2 m in length and traverse the entire width of the drive such that they represent all the material mined and not just the main lode. The face samples are therefore considered representative of the grade at the face of the advancing drive and provide an indication of the grade of the material extracted with each blast. The series of face samples collected progressively along the strike of the lode provide an estimate of the grade of the material mined from the lode to date. Due to the nature of mineralization at Tuvatu there is local variation in gold grades, and the more extensive the systematic sampling is the more accurate the depiction of the overall grade and gold content of each lode will be. For a description of the geology and mineralization of the URW1 lodes, see the Lion One news release dated April 25th, 2023.
Figure 3. Face sampling methodology, URW1a. Photo of the face and sample grades for the 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_12 face of the URW1a lode. Samples are marked with red paint with red numbers indicating sample interval boundaries in meters. Gold grades are indicated in white. The main lode is visible on the right side of the face and is highlighted by the yellow dashed lines. In this case the lode is trending towards the east (to the right side of the photo), and the miners will start mining in that direction with the next blast, as is seen in Figure 2 above at sample 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_12. Sample bags are visible towards the bottom of the image, with 4 samples taken across the face and an additional duplicate sample taken at the location of the main lode. Bag numbers are visible in the face photos as a QAQC measure. Samples are collected by chipping material off the face rock equally along the length of the sample line.
To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/2178/173370_9cc80cc694a50a8e_057full.jpg
Figure 4. Examples of visible gold identified during sampling. Scratcher pen used for scale in top two images. Width of sampled in bottom image is 4.5 cm.
To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/2178/173370_9cc80cc694a50a8e_058full.jpg
About Tuvatu
The Tuvatu Alkaline Gold Project is located on the island of Viti Levu in Fiji. The January 2018 mineral resource for Tuvatu as disclosed in the technical report “Technical Report and Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Tuvatu Gold Project, Republic of Fiji”, dated September 25, 2020, and prepared by Mining Associates Pty Ltd of Brisbane Qld, comprises 1,007,000 tonnes indicated at 8.50 g/t Au (274,600 oz. Au) and 1,325,000 tonnes inferred at 9.0 g/t Au (384,000 oz. Au) at a cut-off grade of 3.0 g/t Au. The technical report is available on the Lion One website at www.liononemetals.com and on the SEDAR website at www.sedar.com.
Qualified Person
In accordance with National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43- 101”), Sergio Cattalani, P.Geo, Senior Vice President Exploration, is the Qualified Person for the Company and has reviewed and is responsible for the technical and scientific content of this news release.
QAQC Procedures
Lion One adheres to rigorous QAQC procedures above and beyond basic regulatory guidelines in conducting its sampling, drilling, testing, and analyses. The Company utilizes its own fleet of diamond drill rigs, using PQ, HQ and NQ sized drill core rods. Drill core is logged and split by Lion One personnel on site. Samples are delivered to and analyzed at the Company’s geochemical and metallurgical laboratory in Fiji. Duplicates of all samples with grades above 0.5 g/t Au are both re-assayed at Lion One’s lab and delivered to ALS Global Laboratories in Australia (ALS) for check assay determinations. All samples for all high-grade intercepts are sent to ALS for check assays. All samples are pulverized to 85% passing through 75 microns. Gold analysis is carried out using fire assay with an AA finish. Samples that have returned grades greater than 10.00 g/t Au are then re-analyzed by gravimetric method. For samples that return greater than 0.50 g/t Au, repeat fire assay runs are carried out and repeated until a result is obtained that is within 10% of the original fire assay run. Lion One’s laboratory can also assay for a range of 71 other elements through Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES), but currently focuses on a suite of 9 important pathfinder elements. All duplicate anomalous samples are sent to ALS labs in Townsville QLD and are analyzed by the same methods (Au-AA26, and Au-GRA22 where applicable). ALS also analyses 33 pathfinder elements by HF-HNO3-HClO4 acid digestion, HCl leach and ICP-AES (method ME-ICP61).
About Lion One Metals Limited
Lion One’s flagship asset is 100% owned, fully permitted high grade Tuvatu Alkaline Gold Project, located on the island of Viti Levu in Fiji. Lion One envisions a low-cost high-grade underground gold mining operation at Tuvatu coupled with exciting exploration upside inside its tenements covering the entire Navilawa Caldera, an underexplored yet highly prospective 7km diameter alkaline gold system. Lion One’s CEO Walter Berukoff leads an experienced team of explorers and mine builders and has owned or operated over 20 mines in 7 countries. As the founder and former CEO of Miramar Mines, Northern Orion, and La Mancha Resources, Walter is credited with building over $3 billion of value for shareholders.
On behalf of the Board of Directors of
Lion One Metals Limited
“Walter Berukoff“, Chairman and CEO
Contact Investor Relations
Toll Free (North America) Tel: 1-855-805-1250
Email: info@liononemetals.com
Website: www.liononemetals.com
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Service Provider
accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release
This press release may contain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included herein are forward-looking information. Generally, forward-looking information may be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “proposed”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases, or by the use of words or phrases which state that certain actions, events or results may, could, would, or might occur or be achieved. This forward-looking information reflects Lion One Metals Limited’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to Lion One Metals Limited and on assumptions Lion One Metals Limited believes are reasonable. These assumptions include, but are not limited to, the actual results of exploration projects being equivalent to or better than estimated results in technical reports, assessment reports, and other geological reports or prior exploration results. Forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Lion One Metals Limited or its subsidiaries to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. Such risks and other factors may include, but are not limited to: the stage development of Lion One Metals Limited, general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; the actual results of current research and development or operational activities; competition; uncertainty as to patent applications and intellectual property rights; product liability and lack of insurance; delay or failure to receive board or regulatory approvals; changes in legislation, including environmental legislation, affecting mining, timing and availability of external financing on acceptable terms; not realizing on the potential benefits of technology; conclusions of economic evaluations; and lack of qualified, skilled labour or loss of key individuals. Although Lion One Metals Limited has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking information, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Lion One Metals Limited does not undertake to update any forward-looking information, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.
Appendix 1: Complete Face Sample Results and Location Information
Table 2. Face Grade and Sample results from the URW1a lode (face grade >0.5 g/t Au)
| Face ID | Face Sample Information | Total Sample Length (m) | Face Grade (Au g/t) | |||
| From | To | Interval (m) | Au (g/t) | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_01 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 51.20 | 2.00 | 25.61 |
| 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.19 | 111.20 | |||
| 0.75 | 1.20 | 0.45 | 2.69 | |||
| 1.20 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 0.25 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_02 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 2.96 | 2.00 | 31.52 |
| 0.67 | 0.90 | 0.23 | 246.79 | |||
| 0.90 | 1.35 | 0.45 | 7.71 | |||
| 1.35 | 2.00 | 0.65 | 1.27 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_03 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 9.24 | 2.00 | 12.12 |
| 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.36 | 6.52 | |||
| 0.86 | 0.90 | 0.04 | 26.12 | |||
| 0.90 | 1.36 | 0.46 | 1.45 | |||
| 1.36 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 24.30 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_04 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 2.81 | 1.70 | 6.54 |
| 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.20 | 14.37 | |||
| 0.71 | 1.22 | 0.51 | 7.88 | |||
| 1.22 | 1.70 | 0.48 | 5.83 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_06 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 3.67 | 2.00 | 5.86 |
| 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 3.86 | |||
| 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.06 | |||
| 1.00 | 1.31 | 0.31 | 0.05 | |||
| 1.31 | 2.00 | 0.69 | 13.69 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_07 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 34.75 | 2.20 | 12.01 |
| 0.70 | 0.96 | 0.26 | 4.46 | |||
| 0.96 | 1.55 | 0.59 | 0.20 | |||
| 1.55 | 2.20 | 0.65 | 1.27 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_08 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 60.23 | 1.90 | 31.90 |
| 0.50 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 1.41 | |||
| 1.10 | 1.50 | 0.40 | 43.56 | |||
| 1.50 | 1.90 | 0.40 | 30.57 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_09 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.80 | 2.10 | 6.25 |
| 0.55 | 1.10 | 0.55 | 0.26 | |||
| 1.10 | 1.80 | 0.70 | 16.67 | |||
| 1.80 | 2.10 | 0.30 | 2.89 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_10 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 20.99 | 1.92 | 17.15 |
| 0.83 | 1.53 | 0.70 | 15.26 | |||
| 1.53 | 1.92 | 0.39 | 12.37 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_11 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.08 | 2.00 | 37.00 |
| 0.68 | 1.20 | 0.52 | 75.53 | |||
| 1.20 | 1.70 | 0.50 | 36.21 | |||
| 1.70 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 55.19 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_12 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 15.53 | 2.40 | 34.33 |
| 0.60 | 1.30 | 0.70 | 15.50 | |||
| 1.30 | 1.90 | 0.60 | 64.92 | |||
| 1.90 | 2.40 | 0.50 | 46.52 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_13 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 5.02 | 2.10 | 34.61 |
| 0.80 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 45.19 | |||
| 1.60 | 2.10 | 0.50 | 65.01 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_15 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.01 | 1.82 | 1.16 |
| 0.48 | 1.04 | 0.56 | 2.80 | |||
| 1.04 | 1.42 | 0.38 | 0.86 | |||
| 1.42 | 1.82 | 0.40 | 0.52 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_16 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.07 | 2.33 | 31.62 |
| 0.76 | 1.39 | 0.63 | 50.88 | |||
| 1.39 | 1.86 | 0.47 | 13.08 | |||
| 1.86 | 1.93 | 0.07 | 76.15 | |||
| 1.93 | 2.33 | 0.40 | 75.20 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_17 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 7.14 | 2.10 | 43.49 |
| 0.70 | 1.35 | 0.65 | 33.47 | |||
| 1.35 | 2.10 | 0.75 | 86.11 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_18 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 6.84 | 2.30 | 2.40 |
| 0.70 | 1.23 | 0.53 | 0.02 | |||
| 1.23 | 2.00 | 0.77 | 0.15 | |||
| 2.00 | 2.30 | 0.30 | 1.99 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_19 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 1.84 | 2.40 | 4.91 |
| 0.74 | 1.39 | 0.65 | 4.61 | |||
| 1.39 | 1.86 | 0.47 | 1.67 | |||
| 1.86 | 2.40 | 0.54 | 12.30 | |||
Table 3. Face Grade and Sample results from the URW1b lode (face grade >0.5 g/t Au)
| Face ID | Face Sample Information | Total Sample Length (m) | Face Grade (Au g/t) | |||
| From | To | Interval (m) | Au (g/t) | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_02 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.70 | 0.61 | |||
| 1.20 | 1.56 | 0.36 | 2.22 | |||
| 1.56 | 2.00 | 0.44 | 9.09 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_07 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 25.70 | 1.96 | 17.32 |
| 0.45 | 0.76 | 0.31 | 25.42 | |||
| 0.76 | 0.91 | 0.15 | 5.81 | |||
| 0.91 | 1.13 | 0.22 | 13.70 | |||
| 1.13 | 1.96 | 0.83 | 12.79 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_08 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 7.93 | 1.70 | 6.31 |
| 0.47 | 0.70 | 0.23 | 14.04 | |||
| 0.70 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 3.18 | |||
| 1.20 | 1.70 | 0.50 | 4.37 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_09 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 1.95 | 2.01 |
| 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.13 | |||
| 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 6.82 | |||
| 1.50 | 1.95 | 0.45 | 0.33 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_10 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 10.69 | 2.10 | 5.7 |
| 0.47 | 0.86 | 0.39 | 2.24 | |||
| 0.86 | 1.10 | 0.24 | 22.56 | |||
| 1.10 | 2.10 | 1.00 | 0.76 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_11 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 19.94 | 2.00 | 16.09 |
| 0.48 | 0.87 | 0.39 | 23.62 | |||
| 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 69.93 | |||
| 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 4.30 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_12 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 6.48 | 3.30 | 10.76 |
| 0.75 | 1.40 | 0.65 | 4.61 | |||
| 1.40 | 2.00 | 0.60 | 0.48 | |||
| 2.00 | 2.70 | 0.70 | 11.66 | |||
| 2.70 | 3.30 | 0.60 | 31.98 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_13 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.01 | 1.70 | 0.01 |
| 0.60 | 1.11 | 0.51 | 0.01 | |||
| 1.11 | 1.50 | 0.39 | 0.01 | |||
| 1.50 | 1.70 | 0.20 | 0.01 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_15 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 2.90 | 2.20 | 12.41 |
| 0.70 | 1.30 | 0.60 | 30.50 | |||
| 1.30 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 10.13 | |||
| 1.50 | 2.20 | 0.70 | 7.06 | |||
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_17 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 2.87 | 1.73 | 15.77 |
| 0.70 | 1.06 | 0.36 | 48.51 | |||
| 1.06 | 1.42 | 0.36 | 11.90 | |||
| 1.42 | 1.73 | 0.31 | 11.36 | |||
Table 4. Coordinates for face sample lines reported in this release, using the end of the sample line as the reference point. Coordinates are in Fiji map grid.
| Face ID | Easting | Northing | Elevation |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_01 | 1876336 | 3920736 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_02 | 1876336 | 3920738 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_03 | 1876336 | 3920739 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_04 | 1876336 | 3920741 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_06 | 1876336 | 3920743 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_07 | 1876335 | 3920745 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_08 | 1876335 | 3920747 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_09 | 1876335 | 3920750 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_10 | 1876335 | 3920752 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_11 | 1876335 | 3920754 | 142 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_12 | 1876335 | 3920756 | 142 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_13 | 1876336 | 3920758 | 142 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_15 | 1876337 | 3920762 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_16 | 1876338 | 3920764 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_17 | 1876338 | 3920765 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_18 | 1876339 | 3920766 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-A_19 | 1876340 | 3920768 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_02 | 1876349 | 3920738 | 144 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_07 | 1876349 | 3920744 | 142 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_08 | 1876348 | 3920745 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_09 | 1876348 | 3920748 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_10 | 1876348 | 3920749 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_11 | 1876349 | 3920752 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_12 | 1876349 | 3920754 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_15 | 1876349 | 3920759 | 141 |
| 1140.URW1.NTH.OD-B_17 | 1876349 | 3920762 | 141 |
KEY POINTS
- Rising interest rates, losses on commercial real estate and heightened regulatory scrutiny will pressure regional and midsized banks, leading to a wave of mergers, sources told CNBC.
- Some of those pressures will be visible as regional banks disclose second-quarter results this month. Firms including Zions and KeyCorp already have warned of sinking revenues.
- Half the country’s banks will likely be swallowed by competitors in the next decade, according to Fitch analyst Chris Wolfe.
- “Some of these banks will survive by being the buyer rather than the target,” said incoming Lazard CEO Peter Orszag. “We could see over time fewer, larger regionals.”
The whirlwind weekend in late April that saw the country’s biggest bank take over its most troubled regional lender marked the end of one wave of problems — and the start of another.
After emerging with the winning bid for First Republic, a lender to rich coastal families that had $229 billion in assets, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon delivered the soothing words craved by investors after weeks of stomach-churning volatility: “This part of the crisis is over.”
But even as the dust settles from a string of government seizures of failed midsized banks, the forces that sparked the regional banking crisis in March are still at play.
Rising interest rates will deepen losses on securities held by banks and motivate savers to pull cash from accounts, squeezing the main way these companies make money. Losses on commercial real estate and other loans have just begun to register for banks, further shrinking their bottom lines. Regulators will turn their sights on midsized institutions after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank exposed supervisory lapses.
What is coming will likely be the most significant shift in the American banking landscape since the 2008 financial crisis. Many of the country’s 4,672 lenders will be forced into the arms of stronger banks over the next few years, either by market forces or regulators, according to a dozen executives, advisors and investment bankers who spoke with CNBC.
“You’re going to have a massive wave of M&A among smaller banks because they need to get bigger,” said the co-president of a top six U.S. bank who declined to be identified speaking candidly about industry consolidation. “We’re the only country in the world that has this many banks.”
How’d we get here?
To understand the roots of the regional bank crisis, it helps to look back to the turmoil of 2008, caused by irresponsible lending that fueled a housing bubble whose collapse nearly toppled the global economy.
The aftermath of that earlier crisis brought scrutiny on the world’s biggest banks, which needed bailouts to avert disaster. As a result, it was ultimately institutions with $250 billion or more in assets that saw the most changes, including annual stress tests and stiffer rules governing how much loss-absorbing capital they had to keep on their balance sheets.
Non-giant banks, meanwhile, were viewed as safer and skirted by with less federal oversight. In the years after 2008, regional and small banks often traded for a premium to their bigger peers, and banks that showed steady growth by catering to wealthy homeowners or startup investors, like First Republic and SVB, were rewarded with rising stock prices. But while they were less complex than the giant banks, they were not necessarily less risky.
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The sudden collapse of SVB in March showed how quickly a bank could unravel, dispelling one of the core assumptions of the industry: the so-called stickiness of deposits. Low interest rates and bond-purchasing programs that defined the post-2008 years flooded banks with a cheap source of funding and lulled depositors into leaving cash parked at accounts that paid negligible rates.
“For at least 15 years, banks have been awash in deposits and with low rates, it cost them nothing,” said Brian Graham, a banking veteran and co-founder of advisory firm Klaros Group. “That’s clearly changed.”
‘Under stress’
After 10 straight rate hikes and with banks making headline news again this year, depositors have moved funds in search of higher yields or greater perceived safety. Now it’s the too-big-to-fail banks, with their implicit government backstop, that are seen as the safest places to park money. Big bank stocks have outperformed regionals. JPMorgan shares are up 7.6% this year, while the KBW Regional Banking Index is down more than 20%.
That illustrates one of the lessons of March’s tumult. Online tools have made moving money easier, and social media platforms have led to coordinated fears over lenders. Deposits that in the past were considered “sticky,” or unlikely to move, have suddenly become slippery. The industry’s funding is more expensive as a result, especially for smaller banks with a higher percentage of uninsured deposits. But even the megabanks have been forced to pay higher rates to retain deposits.
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Some of those pressures will be visible as regional banks disclose second-quarter results this month. Banks including Zions and KeyCorp told investors last month that interest revenue was coming in lower than expected, and Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O’Connor warned that regional banks may begin slashing dividend payouts.
JPMorgan kicks off bank earnings Friday.
“The fundamental issue with the regional banking system is the underlying business model is under stress,” said incoming Lazard CEO Peter Orszag. “Some of these banks will survive by being the buyer rather than the target. We could see over time fewer, larger regionals.”
Walking wounded
Compounding the industry’s dilemma is the expectation that regulators will tighten oversight of banks, particularly those in the $100 billion to $250 billion asset range, which is where First Republic and SVB slotted.
“There’s going to be a lot more costs coming down the pipe that’s going to depress returns and pressure earnings,” said Chris Wolfe, a Fitch banking analyst who previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
“Higher fixed costs require greater scale, whether you’re in steel manufacturing or banking,” he said. “The incentives for banks to get bigger have just gone up materially.”
Half of the country’s banks will likely be swallowed by competitors in the next decade, said Wolfe.
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While SVB and First Republic saw the greatest exodus of deposits in March, other banks were wounded in that chaotic period, according to a top investment banker who advises financial institutions. Most banks saw a drop in first-quarter deposits below about 10%, but those that lost more than that may be troubled, the banker said.
“If you happen to be one of the banks that lost 10% to 20% of deposits, you’ve got problems,” said the banker, who declined to be identified speaking about potential clients. “You’ve got to either go raise capital and bleed your balance sheet or you’ve got to sell yourself” to alleviate the pressure.
A third option is to simply wait until the bonds that are underwater eventually mature and roll off banks’ balance sheets – or until falling interest rates ease the losses.
But that could take years to play out, and it exposes banks to the risk that something else goes wrong, such as rising defaults on office loans. That could put some banks into a precarious position of not having enough capital.
‘False calm’
In the meantime, banks are already seeking to unload assets and businesses to boost capital, according to another veteran financials banker and former Goldman Sachs partner. They are weighing sales of payments, asset management and fintech operations, this banker said.
“A fair number of them are looking at their balance sheet and trying to figure out, `What do I have that I can sell and get an attractive price for?'” the banker said.
Banks are in a bind, however, because the market isn’t open for fresh sales of lenders’ stock, despite their depressed valuations, according to Lazard’s Orszag. Institutional investors are staying away because further rate increases could cause another leg down for the sector, he said.
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Orszag referred to the last few weeks as a “false calm” that could be shattered when banks post second-quarter results. The industry still faces the risk that the negative feedback loop of falling stock prices and deposit runs could return, he said.
“All you need is one or two banks to say, ‘Deposits are down another 20%’ and all of a sudden, you will be back to similar scenarios,” Orszag said. “Pounding on equity prices, which then feeds into deposit flight, which then feeds back on the equity prices.”
Deals on the horizon
It will take perhaps a year or longer for mergers to ramp up, multiple bankers said. That’s because acquirers would absorb hits to their own capital when taking over competitors with underwater bonds. Executives are also looking for the “all clear” signal from regulators on consolidation after several deals have been scuttled in recent years.
While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has signaled an openness to bank mergers, recent remarks from the Justice Department indicate greater deal scrutiny on antitrust concerns, and influential lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren oppose more banking consolidation.
When the logjam does break, deals will likely cluster in several brackets as banks seek to optimize their size in the new regime.
Banks that once benefited from being below $250 billion in assets may find those advantages gone, leading to more deals among midsized lenders. Other deals will create bulked-up entities below the $100 billion and $10 billion asset levels, which are likely regulatory thresholds, according to Klaros co-founder Graham.
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Bigger banks have more resources to adhere to coming regulations and consumers’ technology demands, advantages that have helped financial giants including JPMorgan steadily grow earnings despite higher capital requirements. Still, the process isn’t likely to be a comfortable one for sellers.
But distress for one bank means opportunity for another. Amalgamated Bank, a New York-based institution with $7.8 billion in assets that caters to unions and nonprofits, will consider acquisitions after its stock price recovers, according to CFO Jason Darby.
“Once our currency returns to a place where we feel it’s more appropriate, we’ll take a look at our ability to roll up,” Darby said. “I do think you’ll see more and more banks raising their hands and saying, `We’re looking for strategic partners’ as the future unfolds.”
Original Source: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/07/10/american-banks-face-more-pain-huge-shift.html
VANCOUVER, BC / ACCESSWIRE / July 11, 2023 / Metallic Minerals Corp. (TSX.V:MMG)(OTCQB:MMNGF) (“Metallic Minerals” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the start of the 2023 exploration and drill campaign at the La Plata copper-silver-gold-PGE project, located in southwest Colorado.
In May 2023, Newcrest Mining Limited completed a 9.5% strategic equity investment into Metallic Minerals with the goal of accelerating advancement of the La Plata porphyry project. This funding will support a two-phase drill campaign in 2023 that will build on the success from work in 2022. The initial phase is expected to consist of approximately 5,000 meters of diamond core drilling, primarily focused on resource expansion at the Allard porphyry deposit.
A top priority for the program will be to conduct step-out drilling from the major discovery in drill hole 22-04 which intersected 816 meters of 0.41% Cu Eq (0.30% Cu, 2.47 g/t Ag, 0.038 g/t Au, 0.055 g/t Pd and 0.093 g/t Pd) from surface and ended in 5.39% CuEq over 5.2 m (2.44% Cu, 18.7 g/t Ag, 5.0 g/t Au+PGE). Hole 22-04 did not reach target depth and ended in mineralization due to mechanical issues. Drilling in 2023 will test the lower limits of mineralization and some holes are scheduled for as deep as 1,200 meters.
Scott Petsel, Metallic Minerals’ President, stated, “We see a real opportunity for world class scale and grade at La Plata and have confidence in our ability to quickly grow the existing resources. Hole 22-04 was not only the widest and highest-grade drill hole ever drilled on the project, it was also one of the top holes drilled in the last several years at any copper project in North America. We also expect to be able to increase the overall grade of the resource moving forward as we include precious metals credits previously not accounted for. Our exploration work over the past two years has defined 16 additional untested porphyry targets across the greater property, which appear to have very similar characteristics to the Allard deposit and could result in additional new discoveries. The drill is currently mobilizing to site.”
The Allard deposit remains open to significant expansion within the resource area to the east, north and west and to depth, with the potential to add gold, platinum and palladium to the current copper and silver resource with the completion of additional exploration drilling. In addition, the larger porphyry system at the La Plata project, which covers an area of over 10 km2, remains underexplored with the potential for new discoveries of both additional copper porphyry centers, as well as high-grade epithermal silver and gold systems.
Yukon Mining Alliance 2023 Property Tours
Metallic Minerals will be participating in the Yukon Mining Alliance Property Tours and Investment Conference in Dawson City on July 19th. Select tour participants will visit Metallic’s Australia Creek alluvial gold royalty property in the Klondike Gold District, currently under lease to Parker Schnabel’s Little Flake Mining as seen on Discovery Channel’s Gold Rush television program. More information whereabout the YMA Property Tours and Conference can be found here. For more information about Metallic’s lease agreement with Little Flake Mining, click here.
About Metallic Minerals
Metallic Minerals Corp. is a leading exploration and development stage company focused on copper, silver, gold and other critical minerals in the La Plata mining district in Colorado, and silver and gold in the high-grade Keno Hill and Klondike districts of the Yukon. Our objective is to create shareholder value through a systematic, entrepreneurial approach to making exploration discoveries, growing resources, and advancing our projects toward development.
In 2023, the Company announced a 9.5% strategic investment by Newcrest Mining Limited for the continued advancement of the Company’s La Plata project in southwestern Colorado. The inaugural NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate, announced in 2022, identified a significant porphyry copper-silver resource containing 889 Mlbs copper and 15 Moz of silver and an updated estimate is currently being finalized. Notably, Colorado was recently ranked 5th globally for investment attractiveness and 2nd in the USA In the 2023 Fraser Institute’s Annual Survey of Mining Companies.
In Canada’s Yukon Territory, Metallic Minerals has consolidated the second-largest land position in the historic high-grade Keno Hill silver district, directly adjacent to Hecla Mining’s operations, with more than 300 Moz of high-grade silver in past production and current M&I resources. Hecla Mining Company, the largest primary silver producer in the USA and third largest in the world, completed the acquisition of Alexco Resources and their Keno Hill operations in September 2022. Hecla is targeting to start production at the Keno Hill operations by Q3 2023. Metallic Minerals is anticipating the announcement of inaugural mineral resource estimate at Keno Silver in the second half of 2023.
The Company is also one of the largest holders of alluvial gold claims in the Yukon and is building a production royalty business by partnering with experienced mining operators, including Parker Schnabel of Little Flake Mining from the hit television show, Gold Rush, on the Discovery Channel.
All of the districts in which Metallic Minerals operates have seen significant mineral production and have existing infrastructure, including power and road access. Metallic Minerals is led by a team with a track record of discovery and exploration success, as well as having large-scale development, permitting and project financing expertise. The Metallic Minerals team has been recognized for its environmental stewardship practices and is committed to responsible and sustainable resource development.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:
Website: www.mmgsilver.com Phone: 604-629-7800
Email: cackerman@mmgsilver.com Toll Free: 1-888-570-4420
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release includes certain statements that may be deemed “forward-looking statements”. All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts including, without limitation, statements regarding potential mineralization, historic production, estimation of mineral resources, the realization of mineral resource estimates, interpretation of prior exploration and potential exploration results, the timing and success of exploration activities generally, the timing and results of future resource estimates, permitting time lines, metal prices and currency exchange rates, availability of capital, government regulation of exploration operations, environmental risks, reclamation, title, statements about expected results of operations, royalties, cash flows, financial position and future dividends as well as financial position, prospects, and future plans and objectives of the Company are forward-looking statements that involve various risks and uncertainties. Although Metallic Minerals believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on a number of material factors and assumptions. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include failure to obtain necessary approvals, unsuccessful exploration results, unsuccessrul operations, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, results of future resource estimates, future metal prices, availability of capital and financing on acceptable terms, general economic, market or business conditions, risks associated with regulatory changes, defects in title, availability of personnel, materials and equipment on a timely basis, accidents or equipment breakdowns, uninsured risks, delays in receiving government approvals, unanticipated environmental impacts on operations and costs to remedy same and other exploration or other risks detailed herein and from time to time in the filings made by the Company with securities regulators. Readers are cautioned that mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. Mineral exploration, development of mines and mining operations is an inherently risky business. Accordingly, the actual events may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. For more information on Metallic Minerals and the risks and challenges of their businesses, investors should review their annual filings that are available at www.sedar.com.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
SOURCE: Metallic Minerals Corp.
View source version on accesswire.com:
https://www.accesswire.com/766846/Metallic-Minerals-Launches-First-Phase-Drill-Program-at-the-La-Plata-Copper-Silver-Gold-PGE-Project-in-Southwest-Colorado-USA
Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – July 10, 2023) – Goldshore Resources Inc. (TSXV: GSHR) (OTCQB: GSHRF) (FSE: 8X00) (“Goldshore” or the “Company“), announces a change in its financial year-end from March 31 to December 31. The change in financial year-end has been made to align the timing of the Company’s financial reporting obligations with its internal budgeting and forecasting process and with its peers. The next financial year-end of the Company for its transition year will occur on December 31, 2023.
Further details regarding the change in financial year-end is available in the Company’s notice of change in year-end prepared in accordance with Section 4.8 of National Instrument 51-102 Continuous Disclosure Obligations and filed under the Company’s SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com.
Neither the TSXV nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSXV) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
About Goldshore
Goldshore is an emerging junior gold development company, and owns 100% of the Moss Gold Project located in Ontario. Wesdome is currently a large shareholder of Goldshore, and the company is supported by an industry-leading management group, board of directors and advisory board. Goldshore is well positioned to advance the Moss Gold Project through the next stages of exploration and development.
For More Information – Please Contact:
Brett A. Richards
President, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Goldshore Resources Inc.
P. +1 604 288 4416 M. +1 905 449 1500
E. brichards@goldshoreresources.com
W. www.goldshoreresources.com
Facebook: GoldShoreRes | Twitter: GoldShoreRes | LinkedIn: goldshoreres
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains statements that constitute “forward-looking statements”. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements, or developments to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, but not always, identified by the words “expects,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “intends,” “estimates,” “projects,” “potential” and similar expressions, or that events or conditions “will,” “would,” “may,” “could” or “should” occur.
Forward-looking statements in this news release include, among others, statements relating to expectations regarding the exploration and development of the Moss Gold Project, and other statements that are not historical facts. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements, or other future events, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors and risks include, among others: the Company may require additional financing from time to time in order to continue its operations which may not be available when needed or on acceptable terms and conditions acceptable; compliance with extensive government regulation; domestic and foreign laws and regulations could adversely affect the Company’s business and results of operations; the stock markets have experienced volatility that often has been unrelated to the performance of companies and these fluctuations may adversely affect the price of the Company’s securities, regardless of its operating performance; and the impact of COVID-19.
The forward-looking information contained in this news release represents the expectations of the Company as of the date of this news release and, accordingly, is subject to change after such date. Readers should not place undue importance on forward-looking information and should not rely upon this information as of any other date. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in the event that management’s beliefs, estimates or opinions, or other factors, should change.
The gold market could see new bullish momentum as the world could see a new type of gold standard.
Friday, according to state-run RT, the Russian government has confirmed that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, also known as BRICS nations, will introduce a new trading currency backed by gold. The official announcement is expected to be made during the BRICS summit in August in South Africa.
The latest news is adding new momentum to the ongoing de-dollarization trend unfolding in the global economy. Since mid-2022, central banks worldwide have been buying gold at a historic pace in part to diversify their reserve away from the U.S. dollar.
For many analysts, a gold-backed currency is the next evolution in this process. Many analysts have seen China’s recent gold purchases as an attempt to bring international credibility to the yuan.
At the same time, the U.S. government’s weaponization of the U.S. dollar against Russia for invading Ukraine has created some geopolitical uncertainty among some nations allied with Russia.
While the prospect of a gold-backed BRICS currency will provide significant support to gold, some analysts expect that it will take time before the impact is felt in the market.
Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Degussa, said that while the announcement is a step in the right direction, there is still a long way to go to become reality.
“At first glance, a new transaction unit, backed by gold, sounds like good money – and it could be, first and foremost, a major challenge to the US dollar’s hegemony,” he said in an exclusive comment to Kitco News.
However, Polleit added that the devil is in the details.
“For making the new currency as good as gold, a truly sound currency, it must be convertible into gold on demand. I am not sure whether this is what Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have in mind,” he said. “Using gold as money, the unit of account would be a true game changer, no doubt about it. It could lead to a sharp devaluation of many fiat currencies vis-à-vis the yellow metal (including the BRICS fiat currencies), and it could catapult up goods prices in terms of fiat currencies. It could be a shock to the global fiat money system. I am not sure that this is what the BRICS wish to achieve.”
Polleit added that another option would be for the BRICS nation to create a new bank for financing foreign trade that would require holding gold as capital.
“Against this gold stock, the new bank could, say, grant financing loans to exporters, and issue the “new currency”; or BRICS exports will be sold against the “new currency” and/or gold,” he said. “I think it is fair to say that it is early to come up with a final conclusion where this will lead us to – we need more details.”
Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said that while this could provide long-term support for gold, the precious metal continues to face short-term challenges. He added that despite the announcement, the world is still far from seeing a gold-backed currency.
“But this doesn’t mean this can’t be achieved at all,” he said. “For now, any additional positive news on this could certainly help the gold price, but more importantly, traders are now going to be focused on the US CPI data, which is due next week.”
Other analysts remain highly doubtful about the announcement.
“Talk of BRICS gold backed currency seems like an echo chamber. They do not have the gold to back a currency meaningfully,” said Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex. “Have we not learned anything from the EMU experience of monetary union without fiscal union. Color me profoundly skeptical.”
Many analysts have been speculating about a new global currency to challenge the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. In late March, Former Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill wrote in a paper published in the Global Policy Journal that the U.S. dollar’s dominance is destabilizing global monetary policies. He added that a BRICS currency, challenging the U.S. dollar’s dominance, would bring stability to the global economy.
“Whenever the Federal Reserve Board has embarked on periods of monetary tightening, or the opposite, loosening, the consequences on the value of the dollar and the knock-on effects have been dramatic,” he said.
By
Neils Christensen
For Kitco News
Contact nchristensen@kitco.com
www.kitco.com
Original Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-07-07/Russia-confirms-BRICS-will-create-a-gold-backed-currency.html
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