Category: Base Metals

As gold races to new records, Wall Street analysts have rushed to raise their price targets, with the latest call from Macquarie Group predicting the precious metal will touch $3,500 in the third quarter.

On Thursday, gold futures (GC=F) climbed above $2,990 per ounce as a trade war intensified and the release of modest inflation data raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to cut rates this year.

https://finance.yahoo.com/__embed-chart/?symbol=GC=F&defaultDateRange=1d&comparisons=&exchange=CMX&showAddToWatchlist=true&isSmartphone=true&theme=auto&neo=1

“Year-to-date, gold has been running ahead of our expectations,” Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie, wrote on Thursday.

“We are raising our gold price forecast to a 3Q25 quarter average peak of $3,150 per ounce and our single point price high to $3,500 per ounce,” Garvey wrote.

“President Trump’s rapid move to announce, if not always to enact, import tariffs has contributed to geopolitical uncertainty and boosted inflation expectations, helping push down front-end real rates and supporting gold in the face of periodic USD strength and initially reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts,” the strategist wrote.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The target raise comes after strategists at BNP Paribas called for prices to push above $3,100 per ounce in the second quarter.

“The Trump administration issuing a slew of tariff threats and the realigning of international relationships have added a new layer of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, providing a significant boost to gold,” BNP’s David Wilson wrote in a note on Wednesday.

Gold futures have rallied more than 11% year to date, hitting multiple record highs since January.

Wall Street has attributed much of these gains to continued central bank buying and tariff uncertainty, including the possibility that even imports of the precious metal into the US won’t be spared.

Institutional investors have shipped elevated amounts of physical gold bars to vaults in New York in a move to front-run tariffs and take advantage of a price disparity between London and New York.

Last month, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their year-end gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from their prior projection of $2,890.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – March 12, 2025) – EMX Royalty Corporation (NYSE American: EMX) (TSXV: EMX) (the “Company” or “EMX”) is pleased to report results for the year ended December 31, 2024. For the year, EMX delivered revenue and other income of $27.4 million, adjusted revenue and other income¹ of $36.7 million, adjusted royalty revenue¹ of $33.1 million and adjusted EBITDA¹ of $19.2 million, and ended the year with excellent liquidity.

Dave Cole, EMX CEO, commented, “2024 was a transformational year for EMX. We achieved record-high adjusted royalty revenue, secured a royalty expansion at Caserones, and strengthened our financial position through disciplined capital management and opportunistic share buybacks. With Caserones, Timok, Leeville and Gediktepe performing well, and with a strong balance sheet, we enter 2025 with good momentum. Further, I anticipate a reduction in our cash operating expenditures in 2025 of more than $3.0 million.”

2024 Financial Highlights

• Adjusted revenue and other income¹ of $36.7 million, up 14%² over prior year;
• Adjusted royalty revenue¹ of $33.1 million, up 28%² over prior year;
• Adjusted EBITDA¹ of $19.2 million, up 21%² over prior year, demonstrating strong cash flow conversion;
• Adjusted operating cash flow¹ of $13.6 million, up 46%² over prior year; and
• Cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024 of $26.8 million and a working capital surplus¹ of $41.5 million, demonstrating financial flexibility for growth.

Financial Summary for the Three Months and Year Ended December 31, 2024:

		For the three months ended December 31,						For the year ended December 31,
(In thousands)		2024			2023			2024			2023
Statement of Income
Revenue and other income	$	8,176		$	7,546		$	27,448		$	26,621
General and administrative	$	(1,705	)	$	(1,383	)	$	(7,084	)	$	(6,045	)
Royalty generation and project evaluation costs, net	$	(2,053	)	$	(2,279	)	$	(10,984	)	$	(10,806	)
Net income (loss)	$	1,767		$	1,374		$	(3,288	)	$	(4,633	)
Statement of Cash Flows
Cash flows from operating activities	$	6,492		$	4,272		$	6,818		$	7,059
Non-IFRS Financial Measures1
Adjusted revenue and other income	$	10,000		$	10,920		$	36,711		$	37,028
Adjusted royalty revenue	$	8,757		$	8,743		$	33,067		$	30,694
Adjusted cash flows from operating activities	$	7,828		$	6,192		$	13,590		$	14,072
EBITDA	$	6,258		$	2,123		$	10,903		$	6,944
Adjusted EBITDA	$	6,287		$	7,279		$	19,220		$	20,668
GEOs sold		3,290			4,424			13,897			15,782

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^[1] Refer to the “Non-IFRS financial measures” section below or on page 44 of the Q4 2024 MD&A for more information on each non-IFRS financial measure. These non-IFRS measures are not standardized financial measures under the financial reporting framework used to prepare the financial statements to which the measures relates and might not be comparable to similar financial measures disclosed by other issuers.
^[2] Excluding $4.8 million in catch-up payments received in 2023 from the Timok royalty that relate to prior periods (2021 – $1.6 million, 2022 – $3.2 million).

Key Strategic Developments

During the year ended December 31, 2024, and the period subsequent to year end, EMX has completed several key transactions that demonstrate our strategy of incremental revenue growth and disciplined capital management as we move into 2025. These key developments include:

• We increased our (effective) net smelter return (“NSR”) royalty in the Caserones property from 0.7775% to 0.8306%;
• Refinanced our corporate debt into a long-term senior secured term loan with Franco-Nevada Corporation maturing in July 2029;
• In September 2024, the Company announced the appointment of Mr. Stefan L. Wenger as Chief Financial Officer effective October 1, 2024. Mr. Wenger was previously the Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Royal Gold, Inc., one of the mining industry’s leading royalty companies, from 2006 to 2018;
• Completed the acquisition of a 2% NSR royalty on the Chapi Copper Mine in Peru for a total purchase price of $10 million, which we expect will begin contributing revenue to EMX in 2026; and
• We repurchased and cancelled 5,000,000 shares over the past twelve months, representing approximately 4.44% of issued and outstanding shares.

2024 Results and 2025 Guidance

Please see our MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2024 for more details on our guidance and see “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Future-Oriented Financial Information” below.

GEO Sales and Revenue Guidance

The following is the Company’s 2025 guidance and an evaluation of the Company’s 2024 performance compared to our 2024 Guidance:

	2025 Guidance1	2024 Results	2024 Guidance2
GEO sales3	10,000 to 12,000	13,897	11,000 to 14,000
Adjusted royalty revenue3	$26,000,000 to $32,000,000	$33,067,000	$22,000,000 to $27,500,000
Option and other property income	$1,000,000 to $2,000,000	$1,724,000	$2,000,000 to $3,000,000

For 2024, strong performances during the year were marked by all producing royalties including Gediktepe, Caserones, Timok, and Leeville. This resulted in the achievement of the upper range of our GEO sales guidance and significantly exceeding our adjusted royalty revenue guidance. The Company did not meet its option and other property income guidance due to lower than expected deal flow during the year.

Based on the Company’s existing royalties and information available from its counterparties, we expect GEO sales to range from 10,000 to 12,000 GEOs in 2025. The noted decrease in expected GEOs compared to 2024 is due to EMX’s heavy exposure to copper-based assets, specifically, Caserones and Timok. With copper prices being relatively stable, a significant increase in gold prices will have a negative impact on the GEOs of a copper-based asset.

Guidance in 2025 is based on public forecasts, other disclosure by the owners and operators of our assets, historical performance, and management’s understanding of the underlying producing assets. Additionally, the Company may receive information from the owners and operators of the properties, which the Company is not permitted to disclose to the public pursuant to the underlying agreement or the information has not been prepared in accordance with Canadian disclosure standards, including National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43-101”).

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^[1] Assumed commodity prices of $2,668/oz gold and $4.26/lb copper based on CIBC Global Mining Group’s Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts (“Consensus Pricing”) published on March 3, 2025, which the Company believes to be reliable for the purposes of guidance.
^[2] See news released dated March 25, 2024. Assumed commodity prices of $1,939/oz gold and $3.89/lb copper based on Consensus Pricing published on January 2, 2024.
^[3] Refer to the “Non-IFRS financial measures” section below or on page 44 of the Q4 2024 MD&A for more information on each non-IFRS financial measure.

Outlook

Capital Management

We have established the following capital allocation goals for 2025:

• Achieve a 20% decrease in operating expenditures when compared to 2024, primarily resulting from a decrease in generative expenditures;
• Continued return of capital through a renewed Normal-Course Issuer Bid (“NCIB”) program in 2025;
• Implementation of a measured and consistent debt repayment strategy; and
• Evaluation of a potential revolving credit facility available to EMX to fund royalty acquisitions.

Portfolio Growth

The Company is excited about the prospect for continued growth in the portfolio for 2025 and the coming years. The drivers for near and long term growth in cash flow will come from the large deposits at Caserones in Chile and Timok in Serbia. At Caserones, Lundin Mining Corporation has initiated an exploration program which is intended to expand mineral resources and mineral reserves while at the same time looking to increase throughput at the plant. At Timok, Zijin Mining Group Co. (“Zijin”) continues to develop the lower zone. Zijin also highlighted a recently discovered exploration target south of the Cukaru Peki mine and within EMX’s royalty footprint. Analysis of recent satellite imagery over the Brestovac license, which contains the Cukaru Peki Mine and is covered by EMX’s royalty, shows substantial development of new drill pads with numerous drill rigs visible in the images in the southeast corner of the license.

In Türkiye, Gediktepe continues to perform well and beats its production forecast for 2024 and the new owner/operator of Gediktepe highlighted potential for additional oxide gold and polymetallic sulfide mineralization beyond the currently defined resources.

We anticipate the recently announced $10 million acquisition of a royalty on the Chapi Copper Mine property in Peru will begin contributing to royalty revenue in the first half of 2026. We are excited by the addition of a high-quality copper royalty to the portfolio that has excellent upside development and exploration potential located in the prolific Paleocene-Eocene copper-molybdenum porphyry belt of Southern Peru.

AbraSilver Resource Corp. (“AbraSilver”) continues to advance Diablillos in Argentina and announced results from a pre-feasibility study in December 2024. Additionally, we are due to receive at $7 million property payment from AbraSilver in 2025. New and compelling exploration results were also announced at the Viscaria copper-iron-silver development project in Sweden in Q3 2024. These developments are all examples of the upside optionality that exists throughout EMX’s global royalty portfolio.

EMX is well positioned to identify and pursue new royalty and investment opportunities in 2025, while continuing to grow a pipeline of royalty generation properties. As the Company continues to generate revenues from its producing royalty assets and from other option, advance royalty and pre-production payments across its global asset portfolio, various opportunities for capital redeployment will be evaluated. Such opportunities may include the direct acquisition of royalties, continued organic generation of royalties through partner funded projects and purchase of select strategic investments.

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 GEOs¹ Sold and Adjusted Royalty Revenue¹ by Asset

The following table is a summary of GEOs¹ sold and adjusted royalty revenue¹ for the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2023:

		2024						2023
		GEOs Sold			Revenue (in thousands)			GEOs Sold			Revenue (in thousands)
Caserones		685		$	1,824			1,707		$	3,374
Timok		423			1,127			477			943
Gediktepe		1,430			3,805			1,335			2,638
Leeville		414			1,101			589			1,164
Other producing royalties		231			614			159			315
Advanced royalty payments		107			286			156			309
Total		3,290		$	8,757			4,424		$	8,743

In Q4 2024 there was an adjustment at Caserones to decrease revenue by $0.4 million due to lower than expected revenue in the prior quarter. A similar adjustment was made in Q4 2023, however it resulted in a $1.1 million increase in revenue due to higher than expected revenues in the prior quarter. Excluding these adjustments, royalty revenue at Caserones for both Q4 2024 and Q4 2023 was $2.2 million.

The following table is a summary of GEOs¹ sold and adjusted royalty revenue¹ for the year ended December 31, 2024 and 2023:

		2024						2023
		GEOs Sold			Revenue (in thousands)			GEOs Sold			Revenue (in thousands
Caserones		3,917		$	9,263			5,351		$	10,407
Timok2		2,212			5,216			4,438			8,632
Gediktepe		4,999			11,954			3,442			6,694
Leeville		1,787			4,264			1,612			3,135
Other producing royalties		747			1,812			637			1,238
Advanced royalty payments		235			558			302			588
Adjusted royalty revenue		13,897		$	33,067			15,782		$	30,694

The decrease in revenue at Caserones for the year ended December 31, 2024 was primarily attributed to the delay of the sale of approximately 20,000 tonnes of copper concentrates that were planned to be sold in December 2024 due to operational and weather related issues. EMX expects to recognize the revenue associated with the delayed shipments in 2025.

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^[1] Refer to the “Non-IFRS financial measures” section below or on page 44 of the Q4 2024 MD&A for more information on each non-IFRS financial measure.
^[2] Includes $4.8 million (2,480 GEOs sold) in catch-up payments received in 2023 from the Timok royalty that relate to prior periods.

Shareholder Information

The Company’s filings for the year are available on SEDAR at www.sedarplus.ca, on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s EDGAR website at www.sec.gov, and on EMX’s website at www.EMXroyalty.com. Financial results were prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board.

About EMX – EMX is a precious, and base metals royalty company. EMX’s investors are provided with discovery, development, and commodity price optionality, while limiting exposure to risks inherent to operating companies. The Company’s common shares are listed on the NYSE American Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol “EMX”. Please see www.EMXroyalty.com for more information.

For further information contact:

David M. Cole President and CEO Phone: (303) 973-8585 Dave@EMXroyalty.com

Stefan Wenger Chief Financial Officer Phone: (303) 973-8585 SWenger@EMXroyalty.com

Isabel Belger Investor Relations Phone: +49 178 4909039 IBelger@EMXroyalty.com

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Forward-Looking Statements

This news release may contain “forward looking information” or “forward looking statements” that reflect the Company’s current expectations and projections about its future results. These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the future price of copper, gold and other metals, the estimation of mineral reserves and mineral resources, realization of mineral reserve estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production, the Company’s growth strategy and expectations regarding the guidance for 2025 and future outlook, including revenue and GEO estimates, anticipated reductions in operating expenditures, repayment of outstanding debt and the timing thereof, the acquisition of additional royalty and royalty generation interests and other investment opportunities, the purchase of securities pursuant to the Company’s NCIB, exploration and development plans at the Company’s royalty properties and the expected timing thereof or other statements that are not statements of fact. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, identified by words or phrases such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “plans,” “projects,” “estimates,” “assumes,” “intends,” “strategy,” “goals,” “objectives,” “potential,” “possible” or variations thereof or stating that certain actions, events, conditions or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “should”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved, or the negative of any of these terms and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are based on a number of material assumptions, including those listed below, which could prove to be significantly incorrect, including disruption to production at any of the mineral properties in which the Company has a royalty, or other interest; estimated capital costs, operating costs, production and economic returns; estimated metal pricing (including the estimates from the CIBC Global Mining Group’s Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts published on March 3, 2025), metallurgy, mineability, marketability and operating and capital costs, together with other assumptions underlying the Company’s mineral resource and mineral reserve estimates; the expected ability of any of the properties in which the Company holds a royalty, or other interest to develop adequate infrastructure at a reasonable cost; assumptions that all necessary permits and governmental approvals will remain in effect or be obtained as required to operate, develop or explore the various properties in which the Company holds an interest; and the activities on any on the properties in which the Company holds a royalty, or other interest will not be adversely disrupted or impeded by development, operating or regulatory risks or any other government actions.

Certain important factors that could cause actual results, performances or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, amongst others, failure to maintain or receive necessary approvals, changes in business plans and strategies, market conditions, share price, best use of available cash, copper, gold and other commodity price volatility, discrepancies between actual and estimated production, mineral reserves and resources and metallurgical recoveries, mining operational and development risks relating to the parties which produce the gold or other commodity the Company will purchase, regulatory restrictions, activities by governmental authorities (including changes in taxation), currency fluctuations, the global economic climate, dilution, share price volatility and competition.

Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including but not limited to: the impact of general business and economic conditions, the absence of control over mining operations from which the Company will receive royalties from, and risks related to those mining operations, including risks related to international operations, government and environmental regulation, actual results of current exploration activities, conclusions of economic evaluations and changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, risks in the marketability of minerals, fluctuations in the price of gold and other commodities, global trade uncertainties, fluctuation in foreign exchange rates and interest rates, stock market volatility, as well as those factors discussed in the Company’s MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2024, and the most recently filed Annual Information Form (“AIF”) for the year ended December 31, 2024, actual events may differ materially from current expectations. More information about the Company, including the MD&A, the AIF and financial statements of the Company, is available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on the SEC’s EDGAR website at www.sec.gov. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements that are contained or incorporated by reference, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.

Future-Oriented Financial Information

This news release may contain future-oriented financial information (“FOFI”) within the meaning of Canadian securities legislation, about prospective results of operations, financial position, GEOs and anticipated royalty payments based on assumptions about future economic conditions and courses of action, which FOFI is not presented in the format of a historical balance sheet, income statement or cash flow statement. The FOFI has been prepared by management to provide an outlook of the Company’s activities and results and has been prepared based on a number of assumptions including the assumptions discussed under the headings above entitled “2024 Results and 2025 Guidance”, “Outlook” and “Forward-Looking Statements” and assumptions with respect to the future metal prices, the estimation of mineral reserves and mineral resources, realization of mineral reserve estimates and the timing and amount of estimated future production. Management does not have, or may not have had at the relevant date, or other financial assumptions which may have been used to prepare the FOFI or assurance that such operating results will be achieved and, accordingly, the complete financial effects are not, or may not have been at the relevant date of the FOFI, objectively determinable.

Importantly, the FOFI contained in this news release are, or may be, based upon certain additional assumptions that management believes to be reasonable based on the information currently available to management, including, but not limited to, assumptions about: (i) the future pricing of metals, (ii) the future market demand and trends within the jurisdictions in which the Company or the mining operators operate, and (iii) the operating cost and effect on the production of the Company’s royalty partners. The FOFI or financial outlook contained in this news release do not purport to present the Company’s financial condition in accordance with IFRS, and there can be no assurance that the assumptions made in preparing the FOFI will prove accurate. The actual results of operations of the Company and the resulting financial results will likely vary from the amounts set forth in the analysis presented in any such document, and such variation may be material (including due to the occurrence of unforeseen events occurring subsequent to the preparation of the FOFI). The Company and management believe that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management’s best estimates and judgments as at the applicable date. However, because this information is highly subjective and subject to numerous risks including the risks discussed under the heading above entitled “Forward-Looking Statements” and under the heading “Risk Factors” in the Company’s public disclosures, FOFI or financial outlook within this news release should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results.

Non-IFRS Financial Measures

The Company has included certain non-IFRS financial measures in this press release, as discussed below. EMX believes that these measures, in addition to conventional measures prepared in accordance with IFRS, provide investors an improved ability to evaluate the underlying performance of the Company. These non-IFRS financial measures are intended to provide additional information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. These financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under IFRS, and therefore may not be comparable to other issuers. Each non-IFRS financial measure in this press release is not a standardized financial measure under the financial reporting framework used to prepare the consolidated financial statements of the Company for years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, and might not be comparable to similar financial measures disclosed by other issuers.

Non-IFRS financial measures or “non-GAAP financial measures” are defined in National Instrument 52-112 – Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Disclosure (“NI 52-112”) as a financial measure disclosed that (a) depicts the historical or expected future financial performance, financial position or cash flow of an entity, (b) with respect to its composition, excludes an amount that is included in, or includes an amount that is excluded from, the composition of the most directly comparable financial measure disclosed in the primary financial statements of the entity, (c) is not disclosed in the financial statements of the entity, and (d) is not a ratio, fraction, percentage or similar representation. A non-IFRS ratio is defined by NI 52-112 as a financial measure disclosed that (a) is in the form of a ratio, fraction, percentage or similar representation, (b) has a non-IFRS financial measure as one or more of its components, and (c) is not disclosed in the financial statements.

The following table outlines the non-IFRS financial measures, their definitions, the most directly comparable IFRS measures and why the Company use these measures.

Non-IFRS financial measure		Definition		Most directly comparable IFRS measure		Why we use the measure and why it is useful to investors
Adjusted revenue and other income		Defined as revenue and other income including the Company’s share of royalty revenue related to the Company’s effective royalty on Caserones.		Revenue and other income		The Company believes these measures more accurately depict the Company’s revenue related to operations as the adjustment is to account for revenue from a material asset.
Adjusted royalty revenue		Defined as royalty revenue including the Company’s share of royalty revenue related to the Company’s effective royalty on Caserones.		Royalty revenue
Adjusted cash flows from operating activities		Defined as cash flows from operating activities plus the cash distributions related to the Company’s effective royalty on Caserones.		Cash flows from operating activities		The Company believes this measure more accurately depicts the Company’s cash flows from operations as the adjustment is to account for cash flows from a material asset.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) and adjusted EBITDA		EBITDA represents net earnings or loss for the period before income tax expense or recovery, depreciation and amortization, finance costs. Adjusted EBITDA adds all revenue from the Caserones Royalty less any equity income from the equity investment in SLM California (Caserones Royalty holder). Additionally, it removes the effects of items that do not reflect our underlying operating performance and are not necessarily indicative of future operating results. These may include: share based payments expense; unrealized and realized gains and losses on investments; write-downs of assets; impairments or reversals of impairments; foreign exchange gains or losses; and other non-cash or non-recurring expenses or recoveries.		Earnings or loss before income tax		The Company believes EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are widely used by investors and analysts as useful indicators of our operating performance, our ability to invest in capital expenditures, our ability to incur and service debt and also as a valuation metric.
Gold equivalent ounces (GEOs)		GEOs is a non-IFRS measure that is based on royalty interests and calculated on a quarterly basis by dividing adjusted royalty revenue by the average gold price during such quarter. The gold price is determined based on the LBMA PM fix. For periods longer than one quarter, GEOs are summed for each quarter in the period.		Royalty revenue		The Company uses this measure internally to evaluate our underlying operating performance across the royalty portfolio for the reporting periods presented and to assist with the planning and forecasting of future operating results.
Working capital		Defined as current assets less current liabilities. Working capital does not include assets held for sale and liabilities associated with assets held for sale.		Current assets, current liabilities		We believe that working capital is a useful indicator of the Company’s liquidity.

Reconciliation of Adjusted Revenue and Other Income and Adjusted Royalty Revenue:

During the three months and years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, the Company had the following sources of revenue and other income:

		For the three months ended December 31,						For the year ended December 31,
		2024			2023			2024			2023
Royalty revenue	$	6,933		$	5,369		$	23,804		$	20,287
Option and other property income		734			1,676			1,724			4,785
Interest income		509			501			1,920			1,549
Total revenue and other income	$	8,176		$	7,546		$	27,448		$	26,621

The following is the reconciliation of adjusted revenue and other income and adjusted royalty revenue:

		For the three months ended December 31,						For the year ended December 31,
(In thousands of dollars)		2024			2023			2024			2023
Total revenue and other income	$	8,176		$	7,546		$	27,448		$	26,621
SLM California royalty revenue	$	4,269		$	8,438		$	21,678		$	26,024
The Company’s ownership %		42.7			40.0			42.7			40.0
The Company’s share of royalty revenue	$	1,824		$	3,374		$	9,263		$	10,407
Adjusted revenue and other income	$	10,000		$	10,920		$	36,711		$	37,028
Royalty Revenue	$	6,933		$	5,369		$	23,804		$	20,287
The Company’s share of royalty revenue		1,824			3,374			9,263			10,407
Adjusted royalty revenue	$	8,757		$	8,743		$	33,067		$	30,694

Reconciliation of Adjusted Cash Flows from Operating Activities:

		For the three months ended December 31,						For the year ended December 31,
(In thousands of dollars)		2024			2023			2024			2023
Cash provided by operating activities	$	6,492		$	4,272		$	6,818		$	7,059
Caserones royalty distributions		1,336			1,920			6,772			7,013
Adjusted cash flows from operating activities	$	7,828		$	6,192		$	13,590		$	14,072

Reconciliation of EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA:

		For the three months ended December 31,						For the year ended December 31,
(In thousands of dollars)		2024			2023			2024			2023
Income (loss) before income taxes	$	4,881		$	(1,168	)	$	442		$	(3,393	)
Finance expense		748			1,282			3,814			5,091
Depletion, depreciation, and direct royalty taxes		629			2,009			6,647			5,246
EBITDA	$	6,258		$	2,123		$	10,903		$	6,944
Attributable revenue from Caserones royalty		1,824			3,374			9,263			10,407
Equity income from investment in SLM California		(845)			(1,146	)		(4,329)			(4,134	)
Share-based payments		444			305			2,346			2,068
Loss (gain) on revaluation of investments		(1,067)			863			(4,071)			1,732
Loss (gain) on sale of marketable securities		(233)			(347	)		2,020			73
Foreign exchange loss (gain)		396			(356	)		600			1,010
Gain on revaluation of derivative liabilities		(106	)		(613	)		(282	)		(551	)
Loss (gain) on revaluation and provisioning of receivables		(8	)		2,735			(8	)		2,735
Other losses		–			–			2,326			–
Loss (gain) on settlements, net		(730	)		314			53			314
Impairment charges		354			27			399			70
Adjusted EBITDA	$	6,287		$	7,279		$	19,220		$	20,668

Reconciliation of GEOs:

		For the three months ended December 31,						For the year ended December 31,
(In thousands)		2024			2023			2024			2023
Adjusted royalty revenue	$	8,757		$	8,743		$	33,067		$	30,694
Average gold price per ounce	$	2,662		$	1,976		$	2,379		$	1,945
Total GEOs		3,290			4,424			13,897			15,782

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/244341

Consumer confidence declined sharply in February, notching its biggest monthly decline in nearly four years as uncertainty related to Trump’s trade policy also lifted inflation expectations, according to new data released Tuesday morning.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February came in at a reading of 98.3, a significant drop from January’s revised 105 reading and short of the 102.5 reading expected by economists.

Read more: From $5 eggs to insurance premiums, here’s where prices are rising

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at the Conference Board, said in a press release. “This is the third consecutive month-on-month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022.”

https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/13227193/embed?auto=1

The “Present Situation Index,” which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell to 136.5 in February from 139 in January.

The “Expectations Index,” which tracks consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, also fell to 72.9 in February from 82 last month. Historically, a reading below 80 in that category signals a recession in the coming year. This was the first time since June 2024 that the index came in below that threshold.

Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations jumped from 5.2% last month to 6% in February, echoing other recent data points that highlight greater concerns around tariff uncertainty and the impact those policies could have on inflation.

“This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs,” Guichard said. “There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.”

President Donald Trump’s revived tariff threats have weighed on sentiment as the administration doubles down on 25% across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which are set to come next month. 10% duties on China have already been implemented.

Earlier in February, Trump announced global 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that are expected to take effect on March 12. Trump later ordered that federal agencies study reciprocal tariffs on trading partners.

More recently, Trump said to expect additional duties on autos, chips, and pharmaceuticals. A flat tariff “in the neighborhood of 25%” would apply to all foreign automakers and start as soon as April 2.

“Everybody is talking about inflation rising on the back of tariffs and that is a great concern for the consumer,” Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior US economist at the Conference Board, told Yahoo Finance in an interview following the data’s release.

Notably, February’s decline was broad-based among income groups, including the more affluent cohort of consumers, which has driven the bulk of spending in recent years.

“That is a concern,” Shulyatyeva said. “We know that consumer spending has been in large part driven by those at the top of the income spectrum. … If this is going to slow down significantly, that’s a concern for the economy.”

Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James, wrote it’s still “up in the air” whether or not this lack of confidence will translate to weaker economic growth. A second estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter, due Thursday, will serve as the latest test.

“However,” Aleman warned, “the upward move in inflation expectations and the increase in mentions regarding the potential effects of tariffs should serve as wake up call for the administration.”

Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-plunges-most-in-nearly-4-years-as-inflation-fears-escalate-on-trump-tariff-threats-160817886.html

• Significantly Expands Footprint at AM-13
• Discovers new Manto-Style Target: AM-15
• Approval of US $4.8M Fully Funded 2025 Budget

Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – February 25, 2025) – MAX RESOURCE CORP. (TSXV: MAX) (OTC Pink: MXROF) (FSE: M1D2) (“Max” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce assay results from composite channel samples and expansion of the exploration target footprint at AM-13 to 1,500 by 100 metres. In addition, Max reports the discovery of a new Manto-style target, AM-15 and the approval of a fully funded 2025 exploration budget of US$ 4.8 million all for the it’s wholly-owned Sierra Azul Copper-Silver Project (formerly known as the Cesar Project) located in Northeastern Colombia (refer to Figures 1 to 6 and Tables 1 and 2).

Highlights

• AM-13: Exploration Target Increased to 1,500m by 100m
  • Copper-silver mineralization identified over 1,500m of strike and open ended
  • New composite channel assay results include:
    • 1.6% Copper & 6 g/t Silver over 55.0m (CS11)
    • 1.6% Copper & 7 g/t Silver over 49.0m (CS08)
    • 1.0% Copper & 6 g/t Silver over 26.0m (CS01)
  • The 100m wide mineralized body rises over 300m in elevation between El Cedro and Mapurito valleys suggesting significant depth potential
  • Manto-style mineralization and alteration, similar to deposits in the Tocopilla – Taltal region of northern Chile, where a mineralized corridor extends well over 100-km and hosts several economic deposits including Mantos Blancos estimated to contain 500mt at 1% Copper (Reference material on the Mantos Blancos deposit available here)

• AM-15: Discovery of New Manto Style Target Proximal to AM-13
  • The new AM-15 discovery is located approximately 1,000m northwest of AM-13
  • Early work suggests a large target footprint with five mineralized outcrops already identified over a 100m by 300m and open in all directions
  • High priority target based on potential size, grade and proximity to AM-13
• US $4.8 Million Exploration Budget for 2025
  • Fully funded by Freeport McMoRan Exploration Corporation (“Freeport”)
  • Three components to the 2025 exploration program:
    • Drill Target Development
    • District Scale Exploration
    • Basin Scale Prospectivity Analysis

Max cautions investors copper-silver mineralization at Mantos Blancos is not necessarily indicative of similar mineralization at Sierra Azul.

“The 2025 exploration season is off to an exceptional start with the significant footprint expansion at AM-13 of over 30% coupled with the exciting new discovery of AM-15 underscore the potential of large-scale copper silver discoveries within the Sierra Azul Project,” commented Brett Matich, CEO of MAX.

“The US $4.8 million budget for 2025, fully funded by Freeport, is an increase of 14% compared with 2024 and is focused on the development of priority targets for drilling and the identification of new significant size targets along the Serra Azul Project’s 120 km long mineralized trend,” he concluded.

Image showing extended footprint of AM-13 in relation to the AM-15 discovery

Figure 1: AM-13 & AM-15 Target Zone

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/3834/242241_maximg1.jpg

Topography and composite assays from channel samples collected along the strike of the AM-13 target

Figure 2: AM-13 Target Longitudinal Section

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/3834/242241_maximg2.jpg

Cross section showing composite assays of channel samples collected from the AM-13 exploration target in El Cedro Valley

Figure 3: AM-13 Target Cross Section

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/3834/242241_maximg3.jpg

Work at AM-13 has identified an open-ended 1,500m by 100m exploration target, which is defined, in part, by numerous outcrops of high-grade copper and silver mineralization (refer to Table 1 and Figures 2 & 3). The potential for significant size and grade at AM-13 has elevated it to one of the highest priority targets on the Sierra Azul project.

Mineralization is observed filling fractures and vesicles within an andesitic tuff (a type of porous volcanic rock) that has undergone chlorite and epidote hydrothermal alteration. The mineralized rock strikes between 40° and 50° and, on average, dips at 70° NW. The mineralized unit rises more than 300m between the El Cedro valley and the Mapurito valley 1,200m to the northeast, suggesting the potential for significant depth extent.

Primary copper bearing minerals include native copper, chalcocite and bornite (refer to Figure 4). Trace amounts of bitumen (a type of organic material) were also observed in the mineralized rocks which is believed to be critical to the deposition of copper minerals from fluids that circulated within the Cesar-Rancheria basin. The presence of native copper and chalcocite indicates the mineralized fluids were sulphur poor leading to the precipitation of these high-grade ore-forming minerals.

The alteration of the host rocks and the copper bearing minerals observed at AM-13 appear to be similar to the Manto deposits of northern Chile, including Mantos Blancos, which began production over 60 years ago and is estimated to have contained a total of 500mt at 1.0% Copper (Reference material on the Mantos Blancos deposit available here). Manto Blancos is one of a series of 8 Manto copper-silver deposits in the Jurassic age volcanic and volcano-sedimentary rocks of northern Chile (Reference material on Manto deposits of northern Chile available here)

Figure 4: Mineralized Specimen from Mapurito Valley

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/3834/242241_d7e4292b44aa7898_005full.jpg

Table 1: Summary of AM-13 Composite Channel Sample Assay Results

Rock Channel Sample No.	Sample Method	Width	Copper	Silver
		(m)	(%)	(g/t)
AM-13_CS01	chip-channel	26.0	1.0	5
including	chip-channel	7.0	1.6	9.6
AM13_CS08	saw-cut-channel	55.0	1.6	6
including	chip-channel	15.0	3.4	14
and	chip-channel	5.0	3.5	16
AM-13_CS11	chip-channel	49.0	1.6	7
Including	chip-channel	14.0	2.6	12
and	chip-channel	10.0	2.3	10
AM-13_C12	chip-channel	12.0	1.2	6
including	chip-channel	4.0	1.6	6
AM-13_C13	chip channel	12.0	0.7	6
Including	chip-channel	3.0	1.4	14

AM-15: New Discovery – Potential Manto-Style Parallel to AM-13

Max also announces the discovery of a new target, AM-15, located approximately 1,000m to the northwest of AM-13 (refer to Figure 1). Early work suggests an exploration target extending over 1,000m with five mineralized outcrops already identified over a 300m by 100m (refer to Table 2).

Similar to AM-13, mineralization is found filling fractures and vesicles of an andesitic tuff. Ore forming minerals include chalcocite, malachite and azurite (see Figure 5). Chlorite, epidote and albite alteration along with the presence of bitumen are also observed.

Table 2: AM-15 Highlight Composite Assay Results

Rock Channel Sample No.	Sample Method	Width	Copper	Silver
		(m)	(%)	(g/t)
AM-15_CS01	chip-channel	2.0	4.0	35
AM15_CS02	chip-channel	12.0	0.7	7
AM-15_CS03	chip-channel	10.0	0.7	7
AM-15_C04	chip-channel	5.0	0.8	4

The proximity to AM-13, along with its potential size and grade have made AM-15 the focus of the target development team. Work to extend the footprint of AM-15 is underway and several additional mineralized outcrops have been discovered. Initial follow-up exploration at the target will include geological mapping, sampling and trenching.

Rock specimen showing chalcocite, malachite and azurite mineralization

Figure 5: AM-15: Mineralized Andesitic Tuff

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/3834/242241_d7e4292b44aa7898_006full.jpg

Freeport McMoRan Funded US $4.8 Million Approved Exploration Budget for 2025

The 2025 exploration program at the Sierra Azul has three objectives: Drill Target Development, District Scale Exploration and Basin Scale Analysis.

Drill Target Development

The Drill Target Development program will focus exploration on priority targets located in all three districts of the Sierra Azul Project: AM, Conejo and URU (refer to Figure 6). The goal of the program is to prepare the selected targets for drilling. The work program is well under way and includes detailed geological mapping and soil sampling as well as planned ground geophysical surveys and detailed structural analysis.

The initial focus of the target development 2025 campaign will be to continue exploration of the Company’s top priority targets: AM-13 and AM-15. Detailed mapping to date, has identified mineralized outcrops over large areas at both targets. Work to delimit the targets and establish continuity of the mineralization is on-going.

District Scale Exploration

The District Scale Exploration Program commenced in 2024 and is designed to systematically evaluate the entire Sierra Azul Project area with the goal of identifying additional priority targets for follow-up. The program has two components: soil and stream sediment sampling.

The district-scale soil sampling program comprises a total of 3,646 samples collected at 50m intervals along lines spaced 2,000m apart (refer to Figure 6). The sampling campaign commenced in 2024 and approximately 27% of the planned samples have been collected.

Soil samples are initially analyzed in the field using XRF technology. This has led to the discovery of new mineralized outcrops in the Conejo District. Laboratory analysis of the samples is also being conducted and will identify more subtle copper anomalies and trends that can be followed up with detailed mapping and soil sampling.

Stream sediments samples are also planned for 2025 and will complement the district-scale soil sampling program. 200 stream sediment samples will be collected along the valleys that drain into the eastern margin of the Cesar-Rancheria basin.

Basin Scale Analysis

An analysis of the evolution of the Cesar-Rancheria basin is being conducted to identify additional areas prospective for copper. The Cesar-Rancheria basin stretches for more than 250 km, has demonstrable potential for significant copper deposits and remains largely unexplored.

A model of the geological and structural evolution of the Cesar-Rancheria basin is being developed using existing information including, seismic data, oil well logs, satellite imagery and regional geology. The results of the analysis will be used to identify areas within the basin that have the right combination of factors required to develop large scale copper deposits:

1. good structural development to allow the mineralized fluids to move through the geological column.
2. presence of a chemical reductant that will cause copper minerals to precipitate from the fluids and
3. permissive rock types to host the copper minerals.

Map of Sierra Azul Project showing priority targets and district-scale soil sample lines

Figure 6: AM-15: Map of Regional Soil Sample Lines at Serra Azul Copper Silver Project

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/3834/242241_d7e4292b44aa7898_007full.jpg

Background

The Sierra Azul Copper-Silver Project comprises three districts: AM, Conejo and URU. Collectively the three contiguous districts stretch over 120 km in NNE/SSW direction (refer to Figure 4). Max Resource’s land tenure at Sierra Azul includes 188 km² of mining concessions and 1,141 km² of mineral concession applications.

On May 13^th, 2024, Max announced that it had entered into an Earn-In Agreement (“EIA”) with Freeport, a wholly owned-affiliate of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) relating to Max’s wholly owned Sierra Azul Copper-Silver Project. Under the terms of the EIA, Freeport can earn an 80% interest in the Sierra Azul Copper-Silver Project in two stages by spending an aggregate amount of $50 million and paying a total of $1.55 million in cash to Max.

AM District

Starting in the far north of the Jurassic basin, classic stacked red bed outcrops with extensive lateral continuity have been sampled over many kilometres within the AM District culminating in a mineralized corridor that extends over 15km (Max News Release dated May 25, 2023 and Max News Release dated June 22, 2023). Highlight values of 34.4% copper and 305 g/t silver from outcrop samples have been documented in the sedimentary sequences. The Company confirmed that stratiform red-bed style mineralization continues at depth with two scout drill holes completed earlier this year (Max News Release dated April 4, 2023). In addition, Max has discovered a Manto-style target, AM-13, which has significant size potential. Initial assay results from AM-13 included 48m of 1.8% copper and 7.2 g/t Silver (Max News Release dated August 20, 2024).

Conejo District

Midway south, the Conejo District is the most recent to be recognized and is characterized by structurally controlled mineralization hosted in intermediate and felsic volcanic rocks. Numerous mineralized outcrops have been discovered over 3,700m at the primary target in the district with surface samples averaging 4.9% copper (2% cut-off). No drilling has been conducted at Conejo, but it has emerged as an area of focus for the Company.

URU District

Mineralization within the URU District is hosted in intermediate volcanic rocks and is structurally controlled, similar to deposits in the Central African Copper Belt. At URU-C, a 9.0m of 7.0% copper and 115 g/t silver surface discovery was confirmed at depth by drill hole URU-12, which intersected 10.6m of 3.4% copper and 48 g/t silver. At the URU-CE target, 750m to the east, 19.0m of 1.3% copper discovered in outcrop was confirmed by drill hole URU-9, which intersected a broad zone of copper oxide returning 33.0m of 0.3% copper from 4.0m, including 16.5m of 0.5% copper (Max News Release date January 24, 2023).

Qualified Person

The Company’s disclosure of a technical or scientific nature in this news release was reviewed and approved by Tim Henneberry, P.Geo (British Columbia), a member of the Max Resource advisory board, who serves as a qualified person under the definition of National Instrument 43-101.

About Max Resource Corp.

The Company’s wholly owned Sierra Azul Project sits along the Colombian portion of the world’s largest producing copper belt (Andean belt), with world-class infrastructure and the presence of global majors (Glencore and Chevron). Max has an Earn-In Agreement (“EIA”) with Freeport-McMoRan Exploration Corporation (“Freeport”), a wholly owned affiliate of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (“NYSE: FCX”) relating to the Sierra Azul Project. Under the terms of the EIA, Freeport has been granted a two-stage option to acquire up to an 80% ownership interest in the Sierra Azul Project by funding cumulative expenditures of C$50 million and making cash payments to Max of C$1.55 million. Max is the operator of the initial stage. The USD $4.8 million 2025 exploration program for the Sierra Azul Project is funded by Freeport.

The Company’s Florália DSO Project is located 67 km east of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest iron ore and steel producing State. Max’s technical team has significantly expanded the Florália hematite geological target from 8-12mt at 58% Fe to 50-70mt at 55%-61% Fe. Max Brazil has now commenced inaugural drill programs at the Florália DSO Project, consisting of approximately 1,000m of diamond and 800m by a mobile power auger rig.

The Company has added an Australian entity, Max Brazil, to hold the “Florália DSO Project” through the existing Canadian and Brazilian holding entities. As announced on January 31, 2025, Max Brazil has received in-principle advice on suitability from ASX Limited (the “ASX”) to advance plans for admission to the official list of the Australian Securities Exchange.

Max cautions investors the potential quantity and grade of the iron ore is conceptual in nature, and further cautions there has been insufficient exploration to define a mineral resource and Max is uncertain if further exploration will result in the target being delineated as a mineral resource. Hematite mineralization tonnage potential estimation is based on in situ high-grade outcrops and interpreted and modelled magnetic anomalies. Density value used for the estimate is 2.8t/m³. Hematite sample grades range between 55-61%Fe. Hematite mineralization tonnage potential estimation is based on in situ hematite outcrop interpreted and modelled magnetic anomalies. Density value used for the estimate is 2.5t/m3. The 58 channel samples were collected for chemical analysis from in situ outcrops in previously mined slopes of industrial materials. Channel samples weighed in average 14 kg. Chemical analysis was performed at ALS Laboratories. Metal Oxides are determined using XRF analysis. Fusion disks are made with pulped samples and the addition of a borate-based flux. Max did not insert standards or blanks in the assay stream and is relying on ALS’s lab QA/QC.

For more information visit: https://www.maxresource.com/

For additional information contact:
Tim McNulty E: info@maxresource.com T: (604) 290-8100
Rahim Lakha E. rahim@bluesailcapital.com
Brett Matich T: (604) 484 1230

Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Except for statements of historic fact, this news release contains certain “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities law.

Forward-Looking information is frequently characterized by words such as “plan”, “expect”, “project”, “intend”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “estimate” and other similar words, or statements that certain events or conditions “may” or “will” occur. Forward-Looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates at the date the statements are made and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements including, but not limited to delays or uncertainties with regulatory approvals, including that of the TSXV. There are uncertainties inherent in forward-looking information, including factors beyond the Company’s control. There are no assurances that the commercialization plans for Max Resources Corp. described in this news release will come into effect on the terms or time frame described herein.

The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking information if circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions should change except as required by law. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional information identifying risks and uncertainties that could affect financial results is contained in the Company’s filings with Canadian securities regulators, which filings are available at www.sedarplus.ca.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/242241

Gold prices surged to an all-time high of $2,940 per ounce last Thursday, pushing its market cap above $20 trillion for the first time ever, as trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe have stoked fears of a global economic slowdown. And while safe-haven demand is certainly a driver, there’s another potential catalyst that could send prices soaring even higher: the revaluation of America’s gold reserves.

As many of you are aware, the U.S. holds the most gold of any country on earth by far, with reserves totaling 8,133 metric tons. But what’s less well-known is that the stockpile’s value has remained at just $42 per ounce since 1973, putting its total value at around $11 billion.

Let’s say we were to revalue those reserves at today’s price of around $2,900, which some people are in favor of. The total value, then, would jump to a staggering $760 billion, creating a windfall of $749 billion.

This could provide the government with options to sell a portion of its gold or enhance its balance sheet by reducing debt. It could even be used to fund a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), which I wrote about earlier in the month.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has tried to tamp down speculation that the U.S. will go through with this process, stating that it’s “not what [he] had in mind,” but I believe the fact that we’re having this discussion highlights gold’s importance as a financial asset and geopolitical tool.

Verifying the Gold at Fort Knox

Before any revaluation can occur, though, it’s probably best to verify that the gold reserves actually exist—a concern that’s lingered for decades.

The U.S. Bullion Depository at Fort Knox, which houses the bulk of the nation’s gold, has only opened its doors to non-authorized personnel three times in history: 1) in 1943 for President Franklin D. Roosevelt, 2) in 1974 for a small group of Congress members and 3) in 2017 for a delegation including Senator Mitch McConnell and then-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Elon Musk has announced plans to conduct an in-person audit of Fort Knox’s gold reserves on behalf of his cost-cutting operation, the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. In a tweet on February 17, Musk wrote, “Who is confirming that gold wasn’t stolen from Fort Knox?… We want to know if it’s still there.”

I don’t doubt that the gold’s where it should be, but I fully support Musk and President Trump’s efforts to provide transparency. If the audit confirms the reserves—which I believe it will—it could boost confidence in the U.S. government’s finances. Conversely, if discrepancies are found, it could send shockwaves through global markets, adding further momentum to gold prices.

Central Bank Buying and Global Market Trends

Central banks have been on a gold buying spree, having snapped up over 1,000 tons of the metal for the third consecutive year in 2024, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The National Bank of Poland (NBP) led the pack, adding 90 tons to its reserves, while the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a fresh purchase of 5 tons to start 2025, bringing its total holdings to 2,285 tons.

Central banks are often considered the “smart money” in the gold market, and their sustained accumulation of gold reflects a broader strategy to diversify reserves and hedge against their very own policies. What’s more, this buying activity supports prices, creating a favorable backdrop for gold as an investment.

Peak Gold Ahead?

On the supply side, total gold production rose to a record 4,974 tons in 2024, driven by increased mine output and recycling. Initial estimates suggest mine production reached an all-time high of 3,661 tons, though final figures could revise this record. However, the long-term supply outlook is less rosy.

According to S&P Global’s Paul Manalo, the gold supply is expected to peak in 2026 before declining as a result of fewer new discoveries. Exploration budgets, which surged to $7 billion in 2022, have cooled off but remain higher than historical averages. This trend could support higher gold prices over the medium to long term, particularly if demand from central banks and investors remains robust.

Positioned for Growth

The high gold price environment has allowed gold mining companies to expand operations, prioritize sustainability initiatives and attract investor interest. Bank of America estimates that companies under its coverage could generate around $3 billion in free cash flow (FCF) in the fourth quarter of 2024, with even more expected this year.

However, rising costs present a challenge. The average All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) for gold miners hit a record $1,456 per ounce in the third quarter of 2024, driven by higher labor costs and maintenance expenses.

Despite these pressures, many miners remain highly undervalued, making them attractive to value investors. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, which tracks major gold producers, recently made a technical breakout, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average.

Strategic Takeaways

So what does all this mean for your portfolio?

Gold remains a vital asset for diversification. I believe its role as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation and geopolitical risks is as relevant today as ever for long-term investors.

For more tactical investors, the potential revaluation of U.S. gold reserves—or even the publicity surrounding Musk’s proposed audit—could act as a catalyst for price movements.

Meanwhile, the continued buying by central banks and supply constraints in the mining sector offer additional support for a bullish outlook on gold.

As always, I recommend a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical gold (coins, bars, jewelry) and 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a stock market index that measures the performance of companies that mine gold and silver. It’s a modified market capitalization weighted index that includes companies from around the world. 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

Source: https://www.usfunds.com/resource/is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-revalue-its-gold-reserves/