Bob Moriarty’s Outlook on 2019
Source: Maurice Jackson for Streetwise Reports (12/11/18)
In a wide-ranging conversation, Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold discusses with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable geopolitics, economics, Bitcoin, precious metals and more.
Bob Moriarty: It’s very good to talk to you today, and it’s very funny because those are two of my favorite books, too.
Maurice: Sir, it’s always an honor to have you on our show. I would like to begin our discussion on your outlook for 2019. What are some topics of interest that we should focus on beginning with the political and economic landscape of the United States?
Bob: You’ve got to separate those, and we can do that, from an economic point of view. The trade war is a total disaster. It can only do damage. It already has done substantial damage. I think the everything bubble has popped, and we could see some real fireworks in 2019! The stock market has either topped or will top soon. Gold and silver appear to be bottoming. Platinum is the lowest relative to gold it has ever been. So, I’m literally buying platinum and I’m buying silver right now. I think that we may have a few more weeks of tax loss silly selling in the gold shares. But, I think that resources look good for next year, and everything else looks bad.
Politically, there’s just no predicting what Trump will do. Every day I get up, I look, I shudder. I’m not sure Trump knows what he’s doing. But, you and I were talking off mic, and one of the things that I said was, everybody needs to own some gold, they need to have some liquid cash, and they need to have a passport. The world is very precarious. Certainly you can see from the riots in France how swiftly things can go bad, and that all has to do with government spending money it doesn’t have and increasing taxes to pay for it.
Now, the problem is, governments across the globe have spent so much money that they can never tax the people enough, and the people are getting very tired of the cost of living go up and taxes going up, and they know the government is at fault, and they’re going to start hanging politicians here, very soon, and 2019 could be a lot worse than 2008 ever dreamed of.
Maurice: Speaking of that, let’s shift the focus here a little bit and talk about it on a global context here. Regarding geopolitics and the world economy, you somewhat reference it here, but what has you concerned the most?
Maurice: Which will suffice in and of itself.
Bob: Trump is not dealing with a full deck, now to the extent that I’m glad he was elected president, because Hillary Clinton was far worse. But, Donald Trump is not dealing with a full deck. We have a coup d’état in progress. It’s been going on for several years where the FBI, and the DOJ, and the CIA, and the NSA are all trying to over throw Trump, and that’s a very bad thing. That’s not a good thing. It’s a bad thing. Have you ever been in a riot?
Maurice: No, sir, I have not.
Bob: Well, for 20 years, I flew small airplanes all over the world, and there were a couple of times that I got caught up in riots because things just started getting crazy. I was in Pakistan, and the locals decided they would start breaking up all the places that sold liquor, and when a mob forms, you see people at that very worst. When the banks close, when people can no longer cash checks, when their plastic money doesn’t work, Americans are three meals away from chaos, and it’s going to be bad, and I’m serious as a heart attack. Everybody should have a plan for getting out of dodge.
Maurice: And again, that plan is for our audience, a passport, physical precious metals, and some cash. And with regards to cash, would it be in a particular currency?
Bob: Whatever the local currency is. If you’re Canadian, you need Canadian dollars, and if you’re American, you need American dollars. Here’s the flaw. If the banks close, and the U.S. dollar goes to zero, you still need dollars because that’s what people are used to doing trade in. I’m not saying you need dollars because dollars are going to be more valuable. You need dollars because that’s how you conduct trade. I’m quite serious everybody needs a plan B. When everything goes to shit, I’m going to get out of dodge.
Maurice: Moving on to resource companies. Who has your attention now and going forward into 2019?
Bob: Miramont Resources Corp. (MONT:CSE; MRRMF:OTC) is absolutely one. They’ve just received a drill permit. It’s a Quinton Hennigh company. They have two world-class projects in Peru. They will start drilling in January. I expect to start seeing results in February or March. I think they will be world-class results. I think the market will recognize it. The company has gone from 13 cents, 10 days ago, to 26 cents (CAD) now, and that gives a market cap of about CA$13 million. Could they be CA$150 million in six months or a year? Absolutely. They’ve got plenty of money. They’ve got CA$6 million in the bank, so there’s no risk whatsoever with them going out, doing a big financing; and I expect to see solid, good results in the next two to three months.
The second company would be Irving Resources Inc. (IRV:CSE; IRVRF:OTCBB). Same story there. You and I were at Irving. We looked at CA$25,000/ton rock. We looked at the sinter. They will start drilling the sinter in January, and you can expect to see results six weeks, two months later. And, when you drill through $25,000 rock, you get a meter or two, and you’re going to have a stock that’s explosive. Irving was $1.10 a share two weeks ago, and it’s $1.80 right now, and it’s still cheap.
Maurice: How about Novo Resources Corp. (NVO:TSX.V; NSRPF:OTCQX). That’s one of our favorites as well.
Maurice: Novo Resources.
Bob: I’ve never heard of them. I’m going to be a little bit cagey here. I mean, that’s a terrible thing for me to say. Novo is, literally, having their AGM as you’re doing this recording, and I don’t want to say anything about Novo, until I hear the results of the AGM. But, I was there a month ago, Nova has an extraordinary future ahead of them, good management, tons of money in the bank. Quinton Hennigh is an absolute genius. Everybody hates the stock now, and how many times do I need to say, “You need to buy things when everybody hates them, and you need to sell them when everybody loves them.” And, you got all these people at the chat boards whining and crying, “Oh my God, Novo’s at a new low,” and I’m thinking, “Why did they not see that as an opportunity?”
Platinum hit $790 an ounce today. Why would you whine about that? That’s an opportunity. My God, it hasn’t been $790 an ounce in many, many years. It is so cheap. Buy stuff when it’s cheap, sell it when it’s expensive. It is not complicated.
Maurice: You’ll learn that in a book written by Bob Moriarty entitled “Nobody Knows Anything.” Bob, we’ll get to that in just a second. Before we leave here, full disclosure, Miramont Resources, Irving Resources, and Novo Resources, all three are sponsors of both 321 Gold and Proven and Probable, and by the way, unbeknownst to you, Bob, I will be interviewing Bill Pincus, CEO for Miramont Resources, this coming Friday.
Bob: Good. That’s going to be a must listen to. I talked to him a few days ago. I was nibbling at the shares at 13 and 14 cents, and, obviously, word was getting out because the stock, literally, has doubled in 10 days. They have a brilliant future ahead of them. Peru can be a difficult country to deal with. Bill Pincus has it totally under control. They should have been drilling six months ago, and they didn’t, and it’s no big deal, and they will be drilling shortly.
Maurice: Moving on to physical precious metals. You wrote a piece, recently, which is a must read, entitled “These 113 Analyst Believe Gold Will Go Parabolic to Three Thousand or More.” What compelled you to write this piece, and why now?
Bob: Well, here’s what’s very funny. I didn’t write the piece. The piece came out in 2011, okay. Now, I had been contacted in 2011, and the woman who wrote the piece wanted to know my prediction for gold, and I said, “Well, I’ll be happy to give you a prediction for gold.” “Tell me what the dollars going to be.” And she said, “Well, I have no idea what it’s going to be.” And I said, “Well, how can I tell you what gold’s going to be if you can’t tell me what the dollar’s going to be, because gold is the inverse of the dollar now.” We forget this, and we shouldn’t because it’s so basic. Anytime you’re talking about the price of any commodity, you’re talking about the commodity, and you’re talking about the currency it’s quoted in. Now, the funny thing is, gold had been up 12 years in a row, and everybody in the industry wanted to come out with an outrageous price.
Do you happen to know what the price of copper is today?
Maurice: $2.85 per pound.
Bob: From a mathematical point of view, if you wanted to predict the price of copper six months from now, from a mathematical point of view, what price should you predict? Because everything has to do with probability and permutations. If you know the price of copper, it’s $2.85 today, and you want to predict the price from six months from now, mathematically speaking, ignore your opinion, what price should you predict? $2.85.
Maurice: And that being because?
Bob: Everything goes up. We know that. And, everything goes down. And that fact of the matter is, all prices wobble up and down, and we forget that because we think, “I really like gold. I really like silver. I really like platinum. Therefore, it should go up every single day.” Well, markets don’t work that way. “Well, if it doesn’t go up every single day, it’s proof somebody’s manipulating it.” Well, actually, everything’s manipulated, so it’s not proof of anything.
What we forget that all of this variation in price has nothing to do with the commodity, and everything to do with the value of the dollar.When you include inflation, the value of the dollar changes every single day. Between noon today and noon tomorrow, the value of the U.S. dollar will change 10,000 times. Now, that’s actually insane from an economist point of view. If you’re a Martian and you came to earth and you found out the currency changed its value 10,000 times in a day, the Martian would say, “You know, you guys are all nuts down here,” and he would be correct.
But, in 2011 everybody watched gold go up 12 years in a row, so they thought, “well, mathematically, if it’s gone up 12 years in a row, that means it’s going to go up another 12 years in a row.” And they forgot things go up and things go down. It’s very funny because you look at those predictions seven years later, and we’ve got $1,200 and something gold, and you realize that people were being silly in their predictions. There are no experts, and there are no gurus, period.
Maurice: But, Bob, there is a way to navigate and make the value proposition, actually, work better for you, and I want to ask you this here. So, regarding physical precious metals, can you share with us, and you already have, but tell us why? What are you buying right now? You’re not buying gold.
Bob: No, as a matter of fact I sold gold here recently. This goes back to my basic thesis, and it’s the heart of the book, and it’s very important to understand. You buy things when they’re cheap and you sell them when they’re expensive. The ratio of silver and gold has varied from about 16:1, to 101:1 over the last hundred years. For 50 of those years, the price of gold was fixed. And for 50 of those years, the price gold and silver was variable. So, that should give you a good idea of the range. Now, the average over the last 100 years been 54:1; silver has gotten very cheap, else it has, literally in the last week where it was 86:1, and you go back to 2011, it got down to about 32:1 where silver was very expensive.
Everybody makes investing way too complicated because the first mistake they make is they listen to people who feed their fantasies. Okay. Would you vote for an honest politician?
Maurice: My answer is, I would.
Bob: If you voted for an honest politician, how many votes would he get in total?
Maurice: It sounds like probably would just be myself.
Bob: That’s correct, one vote. Politicians, television preachers and most financial analyst make their money, get their power, by feeding people’s fantasies. They tell people what they want to hear, and you’re always comfortable. If you got a certain belief set, if you believe that Catholics are horrible people, you want to go into a Baptist Church and listen to them talk about Catholics. If you think Muslims are horrible people, you want to go into a Catholic church and hear them talk about Muslims. We have prejudices. We have biases, and we listen to those people who feed those biases. I listen to TV preachers, and I’m sitting here thinking, how the hell could anybody listen to that unadulterated horse shit and send their money to these fools. But, the fools are the people in the audience throwing hundred dollar bills at people for telling what they want to hear.
And when you look at the state of politics in the United States, my God, it’s embarrassing. I mean, I can tell you because I spend a lot of time outside the United States, the rest of the world’s looking at the American political system saying, “You know, those people have gone off the deep end. They’re all crazy,” and they would be right.
Maurice: You know, what’s very important for our audience to understand here, is again, you didn’t say that silver is going to a certain numerical value. You just looked at the ratios between that and gold. Completely different perspective. I can share prior to me entering the public domain, I would listen to someone that would feed my paradigm, but silver is being manipulated, at the time, this is me 10 years ago entering the precious metals industry, and that silver’s going to hit this parabolic number of $150 to $200 any day now because of the Federal Reserve. And, that was my reasoning for purchasing physical silver, and then, I had the opportunity to be introduced to the likes of your work, and I shifted that paradigm, and took a more responsible approach, and I appreciate you so much sharing that. It’s a lesson that we all can learn from, and again, to learn more about lessons like that, the book that you’re referring to is “Nobody Know Anything.”
Bob: But, it’s as simple as you should buy what’s cheap, and you should sell what’s dear. Right now, silver’s cheap, gold’s expensive. Now, I’m not predicting $50,0000 silver. I’m not predicting $200 gold. I’m not predicting anything. I’m taking facts. The ratio has been 16:1, to 101:1, over 100 years. That should be the parameters. The average has been 54:1. Silver has spent less than 1% of the time over the last 100 years above 86:1. All investing is based on mathematics at its heart. A mathematical point of view, the chances that you’re profiting by buying silver and selling gold is 99%, and those are good odds.
Now, do I give a damn if silver goes down tomorrow? No. Okay. Same thing with platinum. My God, platinum’s the cheapest relative to gold it’s ever been in history. Yesterday, it was $460 an ounce cheaper than gold, yet for most of history since it was discovered in the 18th century, platinum’s had a premium to gold. So, buy platinum and sit.
Maurice: That’s exactly what we’re doing. We’re purchasing, very aggressively, both of those metals. May I ask you this as well? When you’re looking at buying your silver, are you looking at 100 ounce bars? Do you like government minted coins? Do you like rounds, junk silver? Tell us what you’re buying.
Bob: It’s funny you say that. I am cheap. Okay. Silver is silver is silver, and somebody contacted me and he had a good deal on 100 ounce bars. So, I bought 100 ounce bars. But, I would buy whatever is cheap. It’s all the same silver.
Maurice: Much agreed. I know some people have a certain perspective on getting government minted coins versus rounds, which are private minted coins, and I didn’t know if you had a particular interest in either one of those two.
Bob: It’s probably a good idea to have a variation. You can buy a tank of gas with a one ounce silver coin, but you can’t buy a tank of gas with a 100 ounce silver bar.
Maurice: True indeed. Bob, let’s shift our focus a little bit on something you and I both like to discuss as well, and let’s compare precious metals now with a different type of coin, bitcoin.
Bob: No. No. No. No. No. You mispronounced that word.
Maurice: I certainly did. Please share with the audience. What is the appropriate name for this.
Maurice: And how rare is Bitcon, by the way.
Bob: How rare is salt water in the ocean.
Maurice: Well, I would say there’s a number of variations. Could you share with us, how many variations are there of Bitcon?
Bob: 2,513, roughly.
Maurice: And, isn’t that part of one of the big marketing aspects of Bitcon is that it’s supposed to be rare?
Bob: That’s not rare. You can’t have 2,513 variations and be considered rare.
Maurice: A year ago we had you on our show, and I believe at that time, we were looking at a $13,000 to $14,000 in U.S. currency on Bitcon, and today, we’re looking at $3,400. Is that correct? And, your analysis at that time, it was going to go its intrinsic value of zero. So, it appears to be heading that direction.
Bob: Allow me to ask you a question, because actually, we’re lower than $3,400 right now. If people would take the knowledge that they have, and their common sense, and some logic, they wouldn’t need to listen to experts. They wouldn’t need to listen to gurus. What is the value of a 99 cent stuffed toy?
Maurice: At the current market price, then it would be 99 cents.
Bob: Okay. What is the value of a Beanie Baby?
Maurice: Assuming that is the same toy that you’re referring to, then I would say 99 cents.
Bob: Everything, eventually, returns to its real value. Beanie Babies were going for thousands of dollars because, supposedly, they were rare, and it was this everybody wanted to jump in and everybody wanted to collect, and they thought they were valuable because they were rare. They were 99 cent stuffed toys.
Bob’s Wife: And we collected them.
Bob: That’s my wife and Mr. Brown.
Bob’s Wife: We got to them.
Maurice: And, introducing into the conversation, Bob, who do you have there with you?
Bob: Oh, that’s my wife, Mr. Brown, her pet stuffed sheep.
Maurice: And, Mr. Brown, is he valued at 99 cents as well?
Bob: No. He’s valued a lot higher than that. If my wife had the choice to get rid of me or get rid of Mr. Brown, it’s like no choice at all. Let’s go back to Bitcon and Beanie Babies. Which of those have value?
Maurice: Assuming for a child, they have some type of intrinsic value, but to someone purchasing it, I guess the current market price.
Bob: Well, no. Current market price could be absolutely incorrect.
Maurice: That’s correct because the value at one time was significantly higher.
Maurice: Bob, you make a good point there.
Bob: The strange thing is, when Beanie Babies were selling for thousands of dollars, it was because they were mispriced because everybody was chasing the fear of missing out. You’ve must have Beanie Babies was the narrative at the time. The key here is, at the very worst, Beanie Babies still are 79 cent, or 89 cent, or 99 cent toys. So, let’s take that over to Bitcon and the 2,513 variations. What real value did they have? What intrinsic value is there there?
Maurice: I don’t see one.
Bob: Well, yeah. I see one. I know exactly what the real value is.
Maurice: And what is that?
Bob: You can too if you think about it.
Maurice: Alright, please share with us, sir.
Maurice: That was my point.
Bob: You said you didn’t see it.
Maurice: My apologies, I was inferring, zero.
Bob: I went through and I re-read some of what I was saying last December. I did conducted a number of interviews because I was totally convinced Bitcon was at the top. I sought every measure that you would use to call the top of a bubble in December, but there were only 1,300 or 1,400 variations of Bitcon a year ago. That’s almost doubled, yet the price of Bitcon has gone from $20,000 to $3,400. Bitcon gone down over 80%, but is there anything preventing it from going to zero? Actually, the only thing preventing it is the number of fools in the world who still believe there is some value there.
There is no value there. There is nothing now. There was nothing a year ago, and there’s going to be nothing 10 years from now. Bitcon doesn’t have the value of a Beanie Baby, and this electronic Beanie Baby made of bits and bytes of no particular value, and the mere fact that it’s the biggest bubble in world history, okay, should tell you something. But, over $700 billion disappeared into Bitcon heaven.
Maurice: It’s important to note, as you were speaking here, I’m thinking, Bitcon, and a con artist tries to emulate and fool. When I look at every image I ever see of Bitcon, they make it look like a gold coin.
Bob: They make it look like a coin and the funny thing is, there weren’t any coins. There wasn’t anything.
Maurice: Absolutely. And, then they also use mining terms, like you’re mining bitcoin. That’s what imposter does. An imposter, as we’re referencing it appropriately here, Bitcon, the name fits very well.
Bob: But, here’s what really funny. There were two arguments. One is, that it’s some kind of electronic money, which it’s not. And the other is that it’s rare, and it’s certainly not rare, not with 2,513 variations of it. People are starting to wake up. But, it has been fraud from the get go. It was a bubble. The current bubble right now is marijuana. And, I’ll go you one better, and you’re going to have to guess at the answer here. What’s going to be the big bubble in 2019, or 2020, and 2021?
Maurice: Big bubble. You’re putting me on the spot here.
Bob: Damn straight I am.
Maurice: Let me ask you this then. Are we referring to a natural resource here, by chance?
Maurice: For some reason, my initial instinct is saying lithium.
Bob: It’s already been on the bubble.
Maurice: Alright. If not lithium…
Bob: This new bubble is absolutely the equivalent of Bitcon and marijuana. We’re going to have a bubble that’s just going to go sky high. Everybody’s going to jump into, everybody’s going to think it’s the greatest thing in the world, and everybody’s going to buy it, and they’re going to drive the price up right to the root. What is it?
Maurice: Then, if it’s not lithium, then how about vanadium?
Bob: How about gold?
Maurice: Gold. Interesting. I was thinking more of on the base metals side here. Okay.
Bob: Here’s what’s crazy. Can you name a commodity that is incapable of going in a bubble?
Maurice: No, sir.
Bob: We’ve had stock market bubbles. We’ve had real estate market bubbles. We’ve had Bitcon bubbles. We’ve had marijuana bubbles. We had a silver bubble in 1980. Gold is going to have a bubble. Period. But, the purpose for me writing the book “Nobody Knows Anything” was to allow people to learn that they’re capable of thinking for themselves. There is going to come a time when gold’s expensive, silver’s expensive, platinum’s expensive, palladium’s expensive, rhodium’s expensive, and what do you do when they all get expensive?
Maurice: You should sell.
Bob: You better sell.
Maurice: Bob, as always, thank you for sharing your insights. Last question. What did I forget to ask?
Bob: You forgot to ask me about the book, “How to Invest In Natural Resource Companies.”
Maurice: Absolutely. What can you share with us?
Bob: What book?
Wife: What book?
Maurice: The book on “How to Invest In Natural Resource Companies.”
Bob: I think that’s a great idea. I think somebody really needs to dig in, get to work and start writing the book.
Maurice: Can you give us an update on that person who might be writing that book?
Bob: You’re coming in really broken. I’m having a hard time hearing you.
Maurice: Bob, you’ve got fill us in here. You’ve shared with us over a year ago that you’ll be writing a book, and a number of speculators have been waiting.
Bob: I can see your lips move, but I can’t hear anything you’re saying.
Maurice: For audience members, he’s pulling my leg here, and pulling your leg as well.
Bob: I have all the intentions in the world. I’ve started the book. I will do it.
Maurice: And you want to leave it at that? How about for 2019? Is that on the outlook there? Is that something on the horizon that. . .
Bob: Yeah. Yeah. 2019’s good. It give me a lot of time to come up with new excuses.
Maurice: Okay. Well, before we leave here, I reference Bob Moriarty’s two books, “The Art of Peace,” and “Nobody Knows Anything.” You can order your copy under our education tab. Proven and Probable does not receive any financial for selling or advertising. But, we see these books as a must have for your library. We’ve benefited financially from applying the axioms in the book. Bob, for someone listening who wants to get more information on your work, please share the websites.
Bob: 321 Gold, and 321 Energy. They’re free sites, and they are valuable.
Maurice: And, if you’re looking to sell or buy physical precious metals, we welcome a conversation. Please email me at email@example.com or call me directly at 919-274-5680. And last but not least, please visit our website www.provenandprobable.com where we interview the most respected names in the natural resource space. If you would like to have a discussion regarding precious metals, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold, and 321Energy.com, thank you for joining us today on Proven and Probable.
Speaker 4: Thank you for joining us today on Proven and Probable. Remember to like and subscribe for more conversations with the most respected names in the natural resource space. Check out our website at www.provenandprobable.com. The information presented on Proven and Probable is provided for educational and informational purposes only without any expressed or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice, or any other advice. You should not make any financial, investment, or trading decision based on any of the information presented without first undertaking independent due diligence and consultation with a professional broker of competent financial advisor.
Bob and Barb Moriarty brought 321gold.com to the Internet almost 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures and updates on current events affecting both sectors. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds 14 international aviation records.
Maurice Jackson is the founder of Proven and Probable, a site that aims to enrich its subscribers through education in precious metals and junior mining companies that will enrich the world.
1) Bob Moriarty: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Miramont Resources, Irving Resources and Novo Resources. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: Miramont Resources, Irving Resources and Novo Resources are sponsors of 321 Gold and/or 321 Energy.
2) Maurice Jackson: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Irving Resources and Novo Resources. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: Miramont Resources, Irving Resources and Novo Resources are sponsors of Proven and Probable. Proven and Probable disclosures are listed below.
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