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|Today we publish our thirtieth Platinum Quarterly data set, which examines activity in the fourth quarter and full year 2021. It also includes an updated forecast for 2022. Independent analysis is provided by our research partner, Metals Focus.|
The Foreword to the report provides an overview of supply and demand developments in the platinum market, as well as our view on issues and trends relevant to considering exposure to platinum as an investment asset.
Key data from the report, which can be downloaded here, are highlighted below:
Platinum surplus of 1,232 koz in 2021 forecast to reduce by 47% in 2022 as COVID-related and operational disruptions gradually settle.Increase in supply in 2021 forecast to plateau in 2022, as last of semi-finished material overhang is processedSignificant rises in automotive (+11%), industrial (+27%), and jewellery (+5%) demand in 2021 set to remain strong in 2022Fall in investment demand from historic highs of 2020 brought overall demand down in 2021. Bar and coin demand is expected to increase by 29% (+97 koz) this yearImports into China, significantly above identified demand, absorb full 2021 surplus, with ongoing tightened conditions in the platinum bullion marketCOVID-related factors and operational disruptions played out particularly during the second half of 2021, having a huge impact on both the supply of and demand for platinum. Despite significant demand growth in most sectors, strong supply levels – boosted by a production surge from the accelerated processing of the backlog of semi-finished material – combined with the reduction in NYMEX stocks and net negative ETF demand saw a platinum surplus of 1,232 koz, with total platinum supply increasing by 21% and total demand decreasing by 9% year-on-year.
As these issues normalise in 2022, this surplus is forecast to reduce in 2022 to 652 koz, as demand increases 7% (+520 koz), while supply declines 1% (-61 koz).
While global economic growth in 2021 surprised to the upside and was expected to stay strong in 2022, with the IMF projecting a growth rate of 4.4%, the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are difficult to predict at this juncture. However, early indications are that supply disruption of palladium from Russia may well enhance platinum demand.
We hope you find this quarter’s report supportive to your efforts to assess and better understand the platinum market, and ultimately make better informed investment decisions.
Chief Executive Officer
World Platinum Investment Council Ltd is registered in England and Wales. Registration Number 9301487.
The WPIC does not offer investment advice and the material contained herein is provided for general information only. Any information contained in this email is subject to the terms and conditions as found on our website www.platinuminvestment.com
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