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RICK RULE | Investing “Know-Who” With Ross Beaty

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Rick Rule Investing “Know-Who” With Ross Beat

Dec 04, 2018 10:42 am
By Remy Blaire
 

Ross Beaty, Chairman of Equinox Gold

 
Acquisitions made by noteworthy mining entrepreneurs and leading resource investors are watched very closely. Rick Rule, president & CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings, spoke with Ross Beaty, serial entrepreneur and founder of Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS). Aspart of Rule’s ongoing “Know-Who” interview series, Beaty outlines the strategies he employed over the past decades to find success in building resource companies.
Beaty spent his early years as a geologist in the resource development business. After working for the large mining companies and coming to the realization that entrepreneurship and corporate development were a better fit for his energy and temperament, Beaty set off on a journey to find success.
Rule reminisces about the first investment with Beaty that his clients were exposed to and the lessons that were learned throughout the years. Both Rule and Beaty have experienced several commodity cycles and understand the importance of planning for the rebound in metals prices. They discuss timing and positioning as investors eye their portfolios amid broader market volatility.


Rick Rule: Equinox [Gold] was your first public vehicle. Unlike a lot of your peers in Vancouver, you never focused on a single asset. You always had the sense of building a multi-commodity company. Talk to us about your first public success. How did you build Equinox? What was the strategy? What mistakes did you make? What did you do right?
Ross Beaty: It was my first company. I knew nothing about public companies, nothing about the mining business as a public company vehicle, as a CEO of a company. I was learning as I went. I have a tremendous amount of energy, a lot of enthusiasm. I found I was a good salesman so I could create good stories and I could use them to sell stock, which gave me the money to pursue other various dreams.

I wanted to have a lot of eggs in a lot of baskets because I knew it was a high-risk business. If we had a lot of opportunities for discovery, we would probably make a discovery. This business is all about high risk and high reward. If you have many, many [high-reward] opportunities, the odds are you’re going to actually discover something that could actually make a buck for shareholders.

In public markets, given the fact of outsized risk, you want to be looking for things with outsized returns like 100% or 1000%. That’s the target that you should always have. I had dozens and dozens and dozens of projects. We had joint ventures with every companyunder the sun because if I could use someone else’s money on properties that we had exposure to, I felt that was like a zero-cost option on discovery. That worked because out of all those dozens of projects, we really only made one major discovery.
We had exposure to many, but we only had one major discovery, which was a classic story. We staked the property — one of our many, many explorations that we staked among thousands and thousands of square miles all over North America, the one property we made a discovery on. But we didn’t know that.
It was just one of the dozens of properties where we optioned into three parts. A big U.S. mining company drilled it. [They] spent a million dollars and drilled down to 500 feet. They were looking for an open pit target [but] found nothing, and gave it back to us. We were then approached by LAC Minerals, another big mining company. And they figured, there might still be something there that was missed. They drilled up to 550 feet and hit this 200- to 300-foot interceptive — [something] like a quarter ounce-per-ton, a real bonanza deposit. And that was the big discovery that launched that whole company to success.
In the meantime, we had a zinc mine. We had a gallium project, a lithium project back in the ‘80s. We were looking for lithium, before anybody even knew what it was. I was looking for lithium because I knew it was a battery metal and that someday this wouldbe important. We looked for platinum and palladium. Found nothing. Spent millions of dollars of other people’s money on that search.
Gold Holdings Canada. We bought a gold mine in Nevada that gave us some cash flow and it gave us a cache as a producer. That was Buckhorn Mine. We then went and bought another mine from the Lundin family called the Eastmaque. We bought Eastmaque, which had the American Girl Mine in Southern California.
Neither of those made a lot of money but they gave us value as an operator. They gave us an income statement. And that was important too, to have a real mining company. The real value came from the exploration success. But in the meantime, [the cash flow from the mines and our market presence as a producer] covered the cost of our operations. That allowed us to finance to credible investors who wanted a company with a real income statement.
I made so many mistakes. The biggest mistake was spending three years trying to permit in California — a gold deposit called Zenda, which is in Kern County near Bakersfield. We spent three years. Rick, I remember taking you to that deposit. It had a gold resource at 50,000 ounces. It was going to be 3-year mine life for 50,000 ounces a year. I wasted three years of my life on that.

If I learned one thing from that [it’s]: If you’re going to be building a public company, go for size. Don’t waste your time on little things. They just aren’t worth it. If you’re trying to build a company, try to build something big because these big deposits can make big money. If you have the good fortune to have that exploration success or timing success, then you can build something significant.

Rick Rule: What constitutes big? Does that mean 100 ounces of annual production and 1 million ounces in total?
Ross Beaty: There’s no magic number of ounces. You can have a deposit that has 100 million ounces like Pebble (Northern Dynasty). It’s almost a goose egg of value if you can’t permit it and if you can’t make it work.
The number of ounces is just one metric. It’s the quality of the ounces, the location of the ounces, and back in the ‘80s, a million-ounce deposit was considered a world-class deposit. A million-ounce deposit was huge then. Today, everybody has million-ouncedeposits. They’re a dime a dozen now.
On the other hand, 30 years later, the world uses a lot more gold. You need a bigger gold endowment to actually move the radar [in the sense of investor sentiment and market value]. I’d rather have 1 million ounces of high-grade gold than 100 million ounces of really, really low grade that you can’t make money on because that’s worth nothing.
I’d rather have a great deposit in say Nevada or Mexico, where you can actually mine successfully and is a great place to work, or Canada, for example, than ten times that in a place like Russia or other parts of the world that are just extremely difficult to mine in. Often, you build something and then it will be stolen from you.
Rick Rule: Let’s move on to Pan American, which, by anybody’s standard, was an unqualified success. I remember, with a lot of fondness, the first private placement in Pan American taking place at $0.50, and I remember the stock, not immediately but by stairsteps, going to $40, $45, or some number like that. It’s a highly successful operating silver mining company today.
You begin to depart from prospect generator and you moved into a different mode of operation: a producer, an acquirer, a consolidator. Was that an accident too or was that a considered strategy as a consequence of lessons from Equinox?
Ross Beaty: Good question, Rick. I spent nine years building Equinox and making all manner of dumb mistakes. But if there’s one thing I am: I’m a fairly quick learner. I learn from my mistakes and make other ones. I had all this baggage built up after nine years — chasing all over the world looking for things and blowing shareholder money — [and] I was determined not to do that again.
When I sold Equinox to Hecla in 1994, I really wanted to find something new. I wanted to keep my team and really start something fresh.
I started a silver company because I realized there really wasn’t a pure silver company for the market and I had a lot of very loyal shareholders at that time. They were willing to bet again.

From the very start, I wanted to build a silver company that would be a world leader. I always said I wanted to build the number one preeminent silver mining company on the planet for equity investors who wanted an alternative to mined silver bullion. So that was always our strategy. We don’t get there by just being an exploration company. You have to be an operating company. You have to have huge resources. You have to have large production. You have to become a real industry leader.

There are a few deposits in the world that are just amazingly rich and they are never-for-sale companies. Once they discovered them, they build empires around them, a handful of them.
I thought if we just put our heads down and acquire as cheaply as we could as many silver deposits, we would ultimately get there. I also thought the silver price would rise quickly because I looked at the demand-supply fundamentals and I thought the silvermarket was pretty much underpriced. And I thought that by the end of the decade, the price would double at least to $10 an ounce from $5 and everything would be fine. The tide will be coming in and I’ll be going crazy buying things all over the place and it will be a happy story.
Well, of course after six years, by 2000, 2001, the silver price went down to an all-time low in real terms. It went to $4.02 an ounce. So I was completely wrong on where the silver price went to that point. But we had actually gone and ran around focused on pure silver deposits, trying to build a really big company levered to the silver price for equity investors. And they came to us.
There were no ETFs at the time. We ended up getting wonderful premiums. We had some great successes in Mexico and Peru. We had a calamity in Russia chasing a huge silver deposit there, financing it and starting construction [only to have] it stolen from us.Fighting these thugs who stole it, and ultimately getting our money back and walking away wasted four years.
At the end of the day, after 20 years, we are now the second largest primary silver-producing company in the world. And I’m very, very proud of what we’ve achieved. It has been really a great run.
Rick Rule: Is it true that part of your thesis now is: the best place to explore for you is in the headframe of a mine? In other words, it seems to me like you’ve made 10 or 12 acquisitions that I can remember in the time that we’ve known each other where you bought a deposit which seemed marginal at the time and turned it into either a tier 1 or a strong tier 2 deposit. Is that a correct observation?
Ross Beaty: It really is, Rick. It goes to the philosophy of the company, because I knew there were silver deposits around the world that if we went – and this is in the 1990s where we did all our big acquisitions — when the silver price was low and the market was distressed, the values of the silver properties would be very low because there were so few of them around the world and companies just weren’t in very good shape.
So, it was an opportunity to acquire them very cheaply. We went all over and I think I’ve been to every silver deposit in the world. And because there are so few of them, it’s a rather small market. If you pick up a few, all of a sudden you become an importantcompany.

We just picked up one after the other, after the other. Struggled through the bear market, and just barely — we had one operation. We bought a mine, an operating mine in Peru in 1995. By 2002, when the market took this [turn] sort of at the end of about a 5- or 6-year bear market, it was right [at] the bottom. Copper was at all-time low. Silver was at all-time low. Gold was $260 an ounce. And it was just, it was blood all over the street. Nobody could finance anything. That was when I was continuing to buy. I just bought and hustled and did all kinds of investment things to acquire properties and stay alive.

But we almost went under, Rick. We got to the point, at the end of 2001, I think, where we had three months of working capital. We were losing half a million a month in our Peru silver mine. Luckily, we had Bill Gates as a shareholder and he and a few others,including me, bought [something] like a year’s worth of working capital in a financing at a $3 per share price. Stock had gone up and then it came down. And that’s what saved us. I mean if we didn’t have that opportunity, we probably would have gone under.
And then what happened right after that financing, which was in early 2002, the market turned and we had just begun a glorious run which took silver from $4.02 an ounce right up to almost $50 an ounce by 2011. And in that time, we just opened mine after mine. We opened five mines in five years — all the properties that we had already acquired during the tough times. We had a great mining team in the company and they just built mine after mine after mine. [We] ended up with a mine in Argentina, three in Peru, two in Mexico, and one in Bolivia.
We had another small operation in Peru. We actually had eight operating mines by 2007. And that has held us in really good standing today. And as you said, we haven’t really done any exploration in terms of classic large exploration. Every one of the fields was the acquisition of a scrappy little thing or a mine that was shut down, and I just knew each of those mines had the opportunity for additional discoveries. They’ve all been going and now they all have reserve lives [that are] longer than they had when we acquired the mines.
So applying the model, the best place to look for new resources is where we already know there’s a lot. That has worked out really well for us.
Rick Rule: The second observation, that goes to both Pan American and Lumina, that I’d like you to comment on is the idea that amalgamators putting several projects in one company (getting the company larger, more liquid and with higher market cap) give you a lower cost of capital than your single asset competitor. Could you talk about that in the context [of] the strategies that you employed at Pan American and Lumina and the strategies that you’re employing today?
Ross Beaty: One hundred percent. For that, I would say there are horses for courses. And what you have to look at is the strategy of the company. If it’s a Lumina Copper (where you’ve consolidated, in a bear market, a whole bunch of companies into one kind of mothership) … you can build something that really is an option on higher copper prices. That’s kind of what it is in Pan American in the ‘90s.

We acquired all these properties in one company. We just couldn’t get enough because we were trying to be a world leader, don’t forget. And in Lumina Copper, I was trying to have massive, massive leverage to higher prices because I knew the market was going to turn and the price of copper was going to rise — marginal or zero-value copper deposits have higher value at higher copper prices.

So I went in these other properties which were marginal or worthless below $5, but would have real value [at] $10 or higher. That’s exactly what happened. But the Lumina strategy was to buy low and sell high. The strategy of all of the Lumina companies, there were ultimately six of them, was to acquire something cheaply, add some value and sell it. It wasn’t a plan to develop a copper mine because the cost of developing the huge copper discoveries that we had was $2- to $6 billion, and I had no interest in financing that size of capital. It’s just tremendously difficult. It’s tremendously dilutive. It just wasn’t a strategy.
That was one strategy for the Lumina Group: to buy low, sell high. To sell, that’s the key. And we did that. We converted $200 million of shareholder value there into $2 billion of real cash value to our shareholders. And that was a pretty happy story.

Pan American was completely different. With Pan American, we were trying to build a real company that would last longer than me. We were not planning to build a company that we could sell. In fact, what we wanted to have is a premium on our share price so high that we would be immune from takeover by anyone else. And that’s pretty much what happened.

Today, it’s a different story because the company today is a large producer. It’s measured on its EBITDA, on its earnings, its growth, its cost per ounce … all of those things that you compare, say a Pan American to a Hecla or to a Coeur d’Alene or [to] a goldcompany. As a large, large company, that doesn’t have a lot of exploration leverage [or any] at all, it does have price leverage but not as much as say a grassroots exploration play.
So those were different strategies and I would say we executed pretty well and both strategies had worked.
Rick Rule: I think it’s an interesting observation when you talked about horses for courses. Talk about the fact that you amalgamated a bunch of assets in the copper business and then disaggregated them, sold them all separately. Talk abouthow that came to you and why it was appropriate at the time because [of] the circumstance that you talked about. If my memory serves me correctly, the first offering in Lumina was $2?
Ross Beaty: It was $1.
Rick Rule: If my memory serves me correct, the liquidation was in the sort of $140 range.
Ross Beaty: Yeah, it was $100 or something. It was a dollar to $100, I think, approximately. If you hold every share and if you got everything, yeah.
Rick Rule: Nobody is naïve enough to believe that all of the stock I bought for a dollar, I kept to a hundred. In the first instance, how did you decide to go into copper business? I know the story, but explain to me why when nobody wanted to be in the copper business, you did. How did you know the copper price was going to go up?
Ross Beaty: Well, I am a serial entrepreneur. It was driving me crazy, the blood in the street and in my own world with Pan American Silver. Things were just awful. Pan American was a producer of silver and zinc. And the zinc price has just tanked. The silver price was tanking. We were losing money. We were almost bankrupt. I tried to keep the mothership alive. We had this disastrous experience in Russia that blew a lot of time and effort and it was really, really tough in 2001. That was the bottom and then the end of an era for the whole business at [the] end of 2001.
And I just tried to say, “Look, I know it’s going to turn. This is a cyclical business. I know it’s going to change. How could I be even more exposed to the turn? How could I build value that’s going to come when the markets turn, when the bear market turns into a bull market? I don’t know when it’s going to happen but I know it’s going to happen.”

You can be someone who puts his money where his mouth is. And I decided that the bellwether of the economy was copper. I’d just been to China. I knew what they were doing. The place is going bananas in terms of commodity consumption and growth. And I just felt I could have done it with zinc, maybe, or lead. Who knows what? Iron or coal? Almost anything at the time. I already have my silver play. I wasn’t going to do another one of those obviously. And Pan American was a precious metal company. It didn’t really [appear] that gold was the right thing to get into. I didn’t want that, those kinds of conflicts.

So I decided to build a copper plant. And because it was a bear market, Rick, it was a golden opportunity to buy. That’s when everybody was selling. Why? They didn’t think copper had a future. Nobody wanted to hear the word copper.

The majors, like BHPN and Phelps-Dodge, were saying, “Oh, we’re going to control the price of copper and we’re going to keep it so it’s low enough that it would not encourage new supply and it’s high enough that we’re going to make a little bit of money with the best deposits in the world.” And of course, that’s a pile of nonsense. I heard that and just laughed.

So I went around and bought all these copper deposits in the bear market, and the bear market lasted for two years. It ended in 2000, well 2002 for gold and 2003 for base metals. Well, once it turned in 2003, we had just listed the company — that was when we did the dollar IPO financing. Just by … I mean none of this is skill really. Markets are pretty predictable. Anybody could have [made] this call on copper. But we had accumulated by that time. We had been very aggressive in going out and buying all these copperdeposits and putting it in one vehicle.
Well, as soon as that copper price took off, the whole strategy changed from buying to selling. But before we could sell, we had to actually prove these deposits had value. To do that, you explore a little bit. You update the resource. You put some economicsaround the resource. You get rid of any fatal flaws in the properties. You secure the land title. You get rid of any social problems, if they exist, [by dealing] with them in a good way. You make sure the tax receipt is right. A lot of these things have little problems. You just solve those problems. And then you basically take the project, wrap it up in a box, tie a beautiful bow around it and then put it for sale. And we did that four times and we had massive, massive successes.
Rick Rule: Maybe it’s partly markets, maybe it’s partly your skill as a storyteller, it amuses me that your cost of capital was lower when you amalgamated them. And your return on capital employed was higher when you segregated them because, it’s probably true that, had you tried to sell all six companies in one wrapper, you would have received a discount … if the market proceeded to do that.
Ross Beaty: For sure, Rick. I mean the Lumina story was just an absolute textbook example of really nice financial engineering through the aggregating and then the disaggregating of separate vehicles — individual companies, each one property per vehicle, real value. [There was also] successful exploration, where we took [known resources] around, as you put it, the headframe and just made these things bigger. We tripled their resource in many cases.
If you drill around these huge copper deposits, typically you find a lot more. And that’s what we did. We took properties, that were drilled [and dropped] by five other major companies because they declared them worthless, and just drilled a little bit moreand added to the value. But the magical thing in all this was the fact that the tide came in. The copper price went looney. I mean the copper price went looney from $0.70 an ounce in 2002 to ultimately $4.60, I think. That was the high in 2007. And then it went down like a rock in 2008-09 [before] bouncing back up to over $4 again in 2011. And by that time, we were pretty well out of the business.
 
Sprott Media will publish Part 2 of this interview ‘Rick Rule Investing “Know-Who” With Ross Beaty’ on the web site. Check back soon for the conclusion of the interview segment.
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CAPITALISM & MORALITY |

An Unparalleled Philosophy Seminar

Thanks to Jennifer Shanse, who has very generously recorded and edited speeches for the last many years, recordings of speeches from Capitalism & Morality 2018 are now available and can be accessed using the linked playlist.
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TOM WHEELWRIGHT | This Is Why Depreciation Is Like Magic

I think depreciation is like magic.

When done properly, it can take rental real estate with positive cash flow and turn it into a loss for tax purposes.

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It’s common to break out land and building in a rental property for depreciation purposes, but there are many more components to consider. These additional components may include appliances, parking structures, landscaping, furniture, fixtures, and much more. Most importantly, these additional components can be depreciated much faster than land and building.

The result is accelerated depreciation which means more depreciation can be taken sooner.

Keep this in mind: Accelerated depreciation is a long term strategy

The decision to accelerate depreciation should be part of a long term tax strategy. While the tax benefits can come immediately, there needs to be a focus on the future to truly maximize the benefits.

Accelerated depreciation often results in more gain when the property is sold.

On top of that, the depreciation taken may be recaptured when the property is sold which means a portion of the gain (the portion attributable to the depreciation) may be taxed at ordinary tax rates.

So how is any of this good news for accelerated depreciation?

Here’s how. The worst case scenario with accelerated depreciation is that the tax is deferred to a later year. You take the bigger deductions now, enjoy the tax savings now and then pay tax on it later in the form of more gain.

If you’ve heard me speak, then you probably know deferral is my least favorite type of tax planning, so you may be wondering why I think accelerated depreciation is so important in a tax strategy.

The reason is that deferral is the worst case outcome, and as far as tax planning goes, while deferral isn’t my favorite, it can still help minimize taxes. So even the worst case scenario is still good for tax planning.

But even better, there are other possible outcomes that can reduce or eliminate the future tax impact of accelerated depreciation.

A long term strategy is the solution to minimizing or eliminating the future tax impact of accelerated depreciation.

Here are a few examples:

Strategy #1

Not all depreciation recapture is taxed as ordinary income. Some depreciation recapture has a lower tax rate. This means you take the deduction at a higher rate and report the income at a lower rate – this results in permanent tax savings.

The key is making sure you are in the right tax brackets now and in the future.

Strategy #2

Another example is using like-kind exchanges in your long term tax strategy. With like-kind exchanges, it is possible to avoid depreciation recapture entirely.

Strategy #3

If your long term strategy is to hold the property and pass it to your heirs, then that can work to avoid depreciation recapture.

Strategy #4

A plan to regularly buy rental property can provide a steady source of accelerated depreciation and compensate for lower depreciation on properties entering the older stages of their depreciable lives.

While there can be many traps with accelerated depreciation, there are also many ways to plan around them with a long term strategy.

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SPROTT’S THOUGHTS | Eric Sprott: All Asset Classes Are Plunging

Eric Sprott: All Asset Classes Are Plunging

Nov 27, 2018 10:57 am
Eric Sprott: All Asset Classes Are Plunging
Renowned investor Eric Sprott truly cannot pass up a bargain. But before heading out for some Black Friday discount shopping, the founder of Sprott Inc. checked in with Craig Hemke of Sprott Money News for an update on the market.
A DIFFERENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT
“We have a different market environment and people should adapt to that,” said Sprott, referring to the general deterioration of asset classes.
“All asset classes are pretty well plunging here … Oil and gas are very weak. We see the stocks are weak.”
And even as the broader market rallies out of correction territory, the weakness is evident. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have wiped out their gains for the year, while the NASDAQ clings to a 2% year-to-date gain (down roughly 15% from its high).
In addition to the technology sector, energy has been particularly hard hit with WTI crude hovering in the $51 per barrel range.
“[Cheap oil] is great for the consumer, of course, because he’s saving money.”
“But it’s certainly not good for corporate earnings in the sense that the oil companies have now lobbed off 30 bucks a barrel, and it’s not as though they were making much in the way of profit anyway. So we could see a bit of carnage there.”
Indeed, we already have. With oil prices down significantly from the October peak, the yield on the high-yield energy index jumped to a 24-month high of 7.99% earlier this month. Meanwhile, the State Street SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) is down roughly 10% for the year.
“People are just waiting for a time to sell.”
THE COST OF RISING INTEREST RATES
Of particular concern are the effects of rising interest rates on consumer behavior.
“The things that interest rates are affecting are the worst performing stocks. Look at the whole housing thing and now autos. You don’t have to be a genius to know that people are kind of tapped out.”
The data seem to agree. With rising mortgage rates and home price growth hurting affordability in many markets, sentiment among the nation’s homebuilders has dropped to its lowest level since August 2016.
The case for automakers is no better. Amid slowing sales, General Motors recently announced a major global restructuring that includes a plan to cancel numerous car models and cut production at five assembly plants. The move affects 15% of its salaried workforce.
“These increases in interest costs — they dent your budget … [M]ortgage rates are up 150 bp off the bottom and an increase of something like 40%.”
“How many people can afford to pay [an extra] 40% on their mortgage and still afford to buy food and pay their power bills?”
“The Fed has gone this route because they had to get back to some kind of normalcy, financially. And getting back to normalcy is resulting in economic carnage.”
THE GOLD BULL IS NOT ALONE
Despite a rising interest rate environment and a 6% year-to-date decline in the gold price, Sprott remains bullish on the metal and the associated mining companies.
“There tends to be a rally beginning in the middle of December. That will coincide with the rate decision, and normally, even when they’ve raised rates, gold has tended to go up. So, I think we’re probably in a good spot here,” said Sprott, before adding, “We usually see fireworks once we get through that big [COMEX] delivery month in December.”
According to Sprott, he is not alone in his interest in gold and the gold miners.
“Anecdotally, I’ve heard that there’s been some major institutional accounts asking various gold companies to come in and present their case.”
“Why wouldn’t they be looking around for something that could survive in a crash?”
“That’s one of the beauties of gold — that’s why I got into gold back in 2000. I was a long-only fund manager and thought, ‘My God, I’ve got all this money for people, what am I going to do?’”
“It finally dawned on me that gold lets you survive … and, quite frankly, I was only trying to survive. I didn’t know the stocks would go up 1,700% from when I bought them.”
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TOM WHEELWRIGHT | What You Need to Know About Who Prepares Your Tax Return

You can have the best tax strategy in the world and it wouldn’t matter if your tax return isn’t properly filed. Your tax return is THE place to capture your tax savings.

For this reason…

Your tax advisor should always be involved in your tax return preparation.

If someone other than your tax advisor prepares your tax return, then it is very likely the tax savings identified in your tax strategy will not be fully captured in your tax return.

ATTENTION CPAs!

You’re invited to The CPA-Revolution Masterclass with me.

This is a 3 day, transformative educational experience, custom-built for CPAs.

(Plus it includes 20 hours of CPE credit – for FREE!)

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  • December 6-8, 2018

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Do You Really Need a Tax Strategy?

If you are an investor or if you own a business, then you absolutely need a tax strategy. The tax law is designed to benefit investors and business owners. A tax strategy is designed so you know exactly what you need to do to maximize these benefits.

Many of you are thinking about starting a particular investment strategy or a business and you just aren’t sure if you should do your tax strategy before or after you start your investing or business.

I always recommend getting your tax strategy done before you start your investing or business because then the foundation can be in place and ready for your new venture. Plus, in most cases, it is possible to keep the foundation flexible enough so if your venture takes you in a different direction, your tax strategy can adapt to these changes.

Best of all, by doing your tax strategy before, you can get a jump start on the rules you need to know as an investor or business owner to legally maximize your tax savings. This is one area that most people neglect to focus on early and by the time they do focus on it, it is a huge project that requires a ton of catch up. In fact, most people in this situation never get caught up. As a result, they aren’t able to maximize their tax savings.

What if You Don’t Have a Tax Strategy?

If you don’t have a tax strategy, my recommendation is to get one in place beforeyou file your next tax return. Waiting to file your tax return until your tax strategy is created can provide more flexibility and opportunity.

Here’s how. When you file your tax return, you are taking a position. For example, claiming your home office as a deduction on your tax return is taking a position. You are taking a position on how the area of your home office is calculated.

Consider this scenario:

Pierre files his tax return claiming his home office as a deduction. He calculates the area of his home office to be 10%. After developing his tax strategy, Pierre learns that his home office area is actually 20%.

If Pierre has not filed his tax return, he can claim the larger deduction. If Pierre has filed his tax return, then claiming the larger deduction could be more challenging because when it comes to tax returns, consistency is very important. If Pierre files his tax return using 10% and then changes it to 20%, he will have more explaining to do.

Keep in mind that it is not only how a deduction is calculated that may change, but where a deduction is claimed. Your tax strategy identifies these key positions.

Keep Your Tax Strategy Up-to-Date

If you already have your tax strategy in place, be sure to review it at least once a year with your tax advisor. Tax strategies evolve and the tax law changes so it’s critical to update your tax strategy regularly to make sure it is still minimizing your taxes.

A good time to do this is when you prepare your tax return. You can make sure your tax savings are properly captured and identify opportunities for the future.

If you already have a trusted tax advisor…

..be sure to tell them about my FREE, 3 Day event just for CPAs, the CPA-Revolution Masterclass. Just forward this email, and click here to learn more about the event.

We’ve updated our Terms of Use – click here to review them now.

Tom Wheelwright, CPA

To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by the IRS, we inform you that any US federal tax advice contained in this communication (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and it cannot be used for the purpose of (i) avoiding penalties under the Internal Revenue Code or (ii) promoting, marketing, or recommending to another party any transaction or matter addressed herein. If you are not the original addressee of this communication, you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from an independent advisor.

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TREY REIK | Everything is Cool

By Trey Reik, Senior Portfolio Manager, Sprott Asset Management USA, Inc.
On Nov. 14, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan conducted an onstage question and answer session at the Dallas Fed. Responding to President Kaplan’s questions, Chair Powell’s cool-and-collected delivery made U.S. monetary policy seem like an absolute snap. The upbeat message from the Dallas stage was best summed by Mr. Powell’s observation that “Fed policy is part of the reason the economy is in such a good place right now.” However, because U.S. financial markets have remained noticeably rattled ever since Mr. Powell’s seemingly innocuous “long way from neutral” comment on Oct. 3, 2018, we find it constructive to parse cautious nuggets in Chair Powell’s copacetic narratives.
Along these lines, Chair Powell seemed to imply from the Dallas stage a subtle downshift in telegraphed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tightening in stating “we have to be thinking about how much further to raise rates and the pace at which we will raise rates.” After referencing potential headwinds of slowing growth abroad, fading fiscal stimulus and lagged effects of eight Fed hikes, Chair Powell eventually narrowed in on one specific area of growing Fed concern: excessive corporate leverage. In Mr. Powell’s soft-spoken words, “There is some significant corporate borrowing and we have our eyes on that.” Having subsequently refreshed our focus on U.S. corporate debt levels, we can only characterize Chair Powell’s matter-of-fact depiction as dramatic understatement.

Corporate Leverage Locomotive

We have suggested that improving U.S. bank balance sheets foster false investor confidence that the excessive leverage at the root of the financial crisis has been repaired. In reality, as the Fed has dedicated eight years and trillions of dollars to nursing systemically important banks back to health, QE (quantitative easing) and ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) have progressively compromised the financial strength of the U.S. corporate sector. Not only have share buybacks imperiled countless balance sheets in the name of ephemeral EPS (earnings per share) gains, but the bulk of U.S. corporate governance has eroded into a culture of undisciplined borrowing and zombie credits.
Low rates and high share prices have distracted investors from the post-crisis explosion in corporate leverage. The total U.S. corporate bond market has almost tripled from $2.4 trillion in December 2006 to $6.7 trillion today. The junk portion of that total represents a startling $1.2 trillion. As the purview of hedge funds and aggressive investors, the junk market is essentially cordoned off from the far more relevant $5.4 trillion investment grade market, in which the vast majority of institutions are restricted by charter to focus their investments. After years of relaxed financial conditions, however, almost half the investment grade universe is now composed of bonds rated Triple-B, the lowest investment-grade category (up from one-third in 2006). This means that roughly $2.6 trillion of investment grade debt hovers just one category above junk status. Further, as rating agencies have factored in declining debt-service in a ZIRP world, the average ratio of total debt-to-EBITDA in the BBB universe has soared from 2.0x in December 2006 to 3.3x today.
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Sprott U.S. Media, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sprott Inc., which is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and operates through its wholly-owned direct and indirect subsidiaries: Sprott Asset Management LP, an adviser registered with the Ontario Securities Commission; Sprott Private Wealth LP, an investment dealer and member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada; Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd., a US full service broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC; Sprott Asset Management USA Inc., an SEC Registered Investment Advisor; and Resource Capital Investment Corp., also an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. We refer to the above entities collectively as “Sprott”.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author’s as of the date of this commentary, and are subject to change without notice. This information is for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation for the sale of any financial product or service or a recommendation or determination by Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd. that any investment strategy is suitable for a specific investor. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the suitability of any investment strategy based on the objectives of the investor, financial situation, investment horizon, and their particular needs. This information is not intended to provide financial, tax, legal, accounting or other professional advice since such advice always requires consideration of individual circumstances. The products discussed herein are not insured by the FDIC or any other governmental agency, are subject to risks, including a possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Generally, natural resources investments are more volatile on a daily basis and have higher headline risk than other sectors as they tend to be more sensitive to economic data, political and regulatory events as well as underlying commodity prices. Natural resource investments are influenced by the price of underlying commodities like oil, gas, metals, coal, etc.; several of which trade on various exchanges and have price fluctuations based on short-term dynamics partly driven by demand/supply and also by investment flows. Natural resource investments tend to react more sensitively to global events and economic data than other sectors, whether it is a natural disaster like an earthquake, political upheaval in the Middle East or release of employment data in the U.S. Low priced securities can be very risky and may result in the loss of part or all of your investment.  Because of significant volatility,  large dealer spreads and very limited market liquidity, typically you will  not be able to sell a low priced security immediately back to the dealer at the same price it sold the stock to you. In some cases, the stock may fall quickly in value. Investing in foreign markets may entail greater risks than those normally associated with domestic markets, such as political, currency, economic and market risks. You should carefully consider whether trading in low priced and international securities is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Sprott Global, entities that it controls, family, friends, employees, associates, and others may hold positions in the securities it recommends to clients, and may sell the same at any time.
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OPPORTUNITY TRAVEL | 7 Unforgettable Days in Southeast Asia

7 Unforgettable Days in Southeast Asia

Dear Reader,
My name is Barbara Perriello. I’m the Director of Opportunity Travel and the Conference Coordinator for the 2019 International Living 2019 Fast Track Your Retirement Overseas Conference in Bangkok, Thailand – February 21-23.
Since we’ll already be right here in beautiful Bangkok for the IL conference, I’ve put together an exclusive, fun filled post-conference tour that’s frankly irresistible.
Not only is it a first-class, luxurious journey with an intimate group of likeminded people…
You’ll also get a chance to see firsthand why travelers and expats alike simply love everything about these two destinations – Chiang Mai and Penang.
Yes, it’s sure to be the adventure of a lifetime.
And if this sounds interesting, we’d love to have you join us. But please don’t delay.
With only 20 spaces available, chances are this tour will sell out quickly.
To get all the details about this exclusive expedition and how you can guarantee yourself a spot, go here for pricing and our day to day itinerary
Don’t miss out! Call me right now at 800 926 6575 or +561 243 6276, or if you prefer, send me an email at info@opportunity-travel.com. We’re always happy to answer your questions or help you with special requests.
I hope to hear from you soon…
Cordially,

Barbara Perriello, Director
Opportunity Travel
P.S. Only the first 20 sign-ups are guaranteed a space for this tour. No exceptions. If you’re interested, I encourage you to reserve your place now.
P.P.S. If you haven’t already done so, click here to book International Living’s 2019 Fast Track Your Retirement Overseas Conference – Bangkok, Thailand – February 21-23.
Where We’re Headed Next


International Living’s 2019
Fast Track Your Retirement Overseas Conference

Join us in Bangkok from 21-23 February and put your overseas dream on the fast track. Give us two-and-a-half days…and we’ll give you everything you need to put yourself on the path to the good life. Reserve your place now and save $200. Go here for the full details …


The Oxford Club’s 21st Annual Investment U Conference
March 28-31, 2019 – The Vinoy Renaissance Resort

Every spring, The Oxford Club hosts its biggest event of the year –the Annual Investment U Conference. For this signature event, we spare no expense to bring you the latest and greatest from the investing world as well as a real no-nonsense look into the markets.
Throughout this event, you’ll discover dozens of profitable ideas from our team of expert analysts, as well as investment insights from more than two dozen of the industry’s top economists and investment minds.
Join us as we celebrate more than two decades of success and tremendous profit opportunities brought to life through this premier event. Year-after-year – we’ve seen the ideas shared here soar to great heights and we are thrilled to see what’s in store next.
For more information on this event, and to reserve your spot today, click hereIf you have any questions about the event, please email us at voyagerclub@oxfordclub.com or call us at +443.708.9411.


Sprott Natural Resource Symposium 2019
Fairmont Hotel Vancouver – July 30-August 2, 2019

Plan your 2019 vacation now – we’ll be happy to help you!
Get the lowest price possible for this popular, long-running conference that just keeps getting better year after year!
Join our chairman and personal host, Rick Rule in the heart of downtown Vancouver for this sell-out event. It’s not too soon to claim your Early Bird Discount!
Click here for details.
You really can’t beat this offer!


Opportunity Travel’s South America Expedition 
Uruguay & Argentina – November 2019
Call now to get your name on the list!

One of our most popular tours! Come November 2019 and once again we’ll be heading south to Uruguay and Argentina where we’ll show you so much more than the wonders these countries are known for. We’d love to have you join us!
Tantalizing wines, fabulous farm to table dining and sensuous tango are just a small snippet of what we have in store. Add to that our unique brand of personal service, luxury hotels and “boots on the ground” experts. Find out for yourself why our past attendees return again and again.
Call now to get your name on the list – 1-800-926-6575 or +561-243-6276OR send us an email at info@opportunity-travel.com


For more information about our tours or conferences, please contact, Barbara Perriello or Michelle Sedita at Opportunity Travel by email at info@opportunity-travel.com or by phone at +561.243.6276 or toll-free at +800.926.6575.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this e-mail should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. In the interest of full disclosure: Opportunity Travel may receive commissions from any property sales made during any of its trips. And, as a travel agency, we often receive a commission from hotels when we book rooms for our tours and conferences.
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JUNIOR MINING | Metallic Minerals Corp. Completes $900,000 Private Placement Financing

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Nov. 21, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Metallic Minerals Corp. (TSX-V: MMG; US OTC: MMNGF) (“Metallic Minerals” or the “Company”) announces that it has closed two concurrent, non-brokered private placements resulting in total gross proceeds to the Company of $900,834 through the issuance of 4,039,971 units.  Metallic Minerals will issue 3,415,221 non-flow-through units at a price of $0.22 per unit for total gross proceeds of $751,350, where each non-flow-through unit will consist of one common share of the Company and one-half share purchase warrant. The Company will also issue 622,854 flow-through units at a price of $0.24 per unit for gross total proceeds of $149,485, where each flow-through unit will consist of one flow-through common share of the Company and one-half non-flow-through share purchase warrant.  Each whole warrant (a “Warrant”) will entitle the holder to acquire one common share of the Company at an exercise price of $0.33 for a period of 36 months following the closing date of the private placement (the “Closing Date”).

If, at any time after the Closing Date, the closing price of Metallic Minerals common shares on the TSX Venture Exchange is greater than $0.44 per share for a period of 10 consecutive trading days, the Company may elect to accelerate the expiry date of part or all of the Warrants, at any date that is four months and one day after the Closing Date, by giving notice thereof to the holders of the Warrants. In such case, that portion of the Warrants would be subject to an expiry date that is 30 business days after the date on which such notice is given by the Company.

Proceeds of the Metallic Minerals financings will be used on the Company’s Keno Silver and McKay Hill projects in Canada’s Yukon Territory, and for general corporate purposes. All securities issued pursuant to the placements will be subject to a hold period of four months and one day from the date of closing. The financings are subject to regulatory approval.

“We are pleased to complete these financings for Metallic Minerals which were undertaken concurrently with independent private placements at the two other companies that make up the Metallic Group of Companies, including Group Ten Metals (PGE.V) and Granite Creek Copper (GCX-H.V). In aggregate, the Metallic Group companies anticipate raising in excess of $3 million in new funding despite what continues to be challenging market conditions,” stated Greg Johnson, CEO of Metallic Minerals and Chairman of the Metallic Group.

Mr. Johnson continued, “The Metallic Group founders and team members include a number of highly successful explorationists formerly with some of the industry’s leading explorer/developers and major producers. Over the past two years the team has been building a platform of exploration companies focused on consolidating large brownfields assets adjacent to some of the industry’s highest-grade producers of silver, platinum group metals and copper. We believe this strategy creates the opportunity for discovery of large, high-quality deposits in these historic and politically stable mining districts through the application of new models and technology by our experienced exploration teams.”

“By acquiring these low political risk, high potential properties in the low part of the metal price cycle, we are creating value for shareholders that would not likely be available during other parts of the cycle. With the acquisition of these key, district-scale assets complete, our experienced teams are undertaking a systematic approach to exploration to facilitate new discoveries in these proven brownfields districts, where existing road, power and other infrastructure may allow for greatly reduced capital costs and faster timelines for development when compared to remote ‘greenfields’ deposits.”

“Based on the geologic target models for each of the Metallic Group companies’ properties, along with the current depressed stage of the metal price cycle, we believe that each of the three companies in the group has the potential for significant growth over the next several years, through the potential discovery and advancement of new resources in the Keno Hill Silver District, Stillwater PGM-Ni-Cu district and Carmacks copper district.  We look forward to reporting results of our 2018 work programs in the coming weeks and months.”

About the Keno Silver Project

Metallic Minerals holds a 166-square kilometer land position in the prolific Keno Hill Silver District; one of the world’s highest-grade silver districts, with 300 million ounces of past production and current resources. Based on the shallow depth of production, recent major discoveries and highly-prospective geology, the district has potential to become one of the world’s premier silver producing regions. Keno Hill has over 100 years of mining and exploration history, yet recent major discoveries demonstrate the excellent potential for delineation of new world-class deposits through systematic modern exploration along the known mineralized structural corridors. With 10 of these known mineralized trends traversing Metallic Minerals’ holdings, the company is focused on identifying and rapidly advancing the most prospective targets toward resource definition. Over past two years, Metallic Minerals has moved from acquisition through to its inaugural field programs with the advancement of three targets to a resource delineation stage, six targets to drill ready stage, and 20 early stage targets identified for assessment.

About Metallic Minerals

Metallic Minerals is a growth-stage exploration company focused on the acquisition and development of high-grade silver and gold in the Yukon. The Company’s objective is to create value through a systematic approach to exploration, reducing investment risk and maximizing the probability of long-term success. In addition to Metallic Minerals’ Keno Silver Project, located in the historic high-grade Keno Hill Silver District, the Company is advancing the McKay Hill Project, a high-grade historical silver-gold producer, northeast of Keno Hill. Metallic Minerals is also building a portfolio of gold royalties in the historic Klondike Gold District. The Company is led by a team with a track record of discovery and exploration success, including large-scale development, permitting and project financing.

About the Metallic Group of Companies

The Metallic Group is a collaboration of leading precious and base metals exploration companies, with a portfolio of large, brownfields assets in established mining districts adjacent to some of the industry’s highest-grade producers of silver, platinum group metals and copper. Member companies include Metallic Minerals (MMG.V) in the Yukon’s Keno Hill Silver District, Group Ten Metals (PGE.V) in the Stillwater PGM-Ni-Cu district of Montana, and Granite Creek Copper (GCX-H.V) in the Yukon’s Carmacks copper district. Highly experienced management and technical teams at the Metallic Group have expertise across the spectrum of resource exploration and project development from initial discoveries to advanced development, including strong project finance and capital markets experience and have demonstrated a commitment to community engagement and environmental best practices. The founders and team members of the Metallic Group include highly successful explorationists formerly with some of the industry’s leading explorer/developers and major producers and are undertaking a systematic approach to exploration using new models and technologies to facilitate discoveries in these proven historic mining districts.

The Metallic Group is headquartered in Vancouver, BC, Canada and its member companies are listed on the Toronto Venture, US OTC, and Frankfurt stock exchanges.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:

Website:  www.metallic-minerals.com                                                     Phone: 604-629-7800
Email: chris.ackerman@metallic-minerals.com                                      Toll Free: 1-888-570-4420

Qualified Person

Scott Petsel, P.Geo, Vice President, Exploration and an employee of Metallic Minerals Corp., is a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101. Mr. Petsel has reviewed the scientific and technical information in this news release and approves the disclosure contained herein.

Forward-Looking Statements

Forward Looking Statements: This news release includes certain statements that may be deemed “forward-looking statements”. All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts including, without limitation, statements regarding potential mineralization, historic production, estimation of mineral resources, the realization of mineral resource estimates, interpretation of prior exploration and potential exploration results, the timing and success of exploration activities generally, the timing and results of future resource estimates, permitting time lines, metal prices and currency exchange rates, availability of capital, government regulation of exploration operations, environmental risks, reclamation, title, and future plans and objectives of the company are forward-looking statements that involve various risks and uncertainties. Although Metallic Minerals believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on a number of material factors and assumptions. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include failure to obtain necessary approvals, unsuccessful exploration results, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, results of future resource estimates, future metal prices, availability of capital and financing on acceptable terms, general economic, market or business conditions, risks associated with regulatory changes, defects in title, availability of personnel, materials and equipment on a timely basis, accidents or equipment breakdowns, uninsured risks, delays in receiving government approvals, unanticipated environmental impacts on operations and costs to remedy same, and other exploration or other risks detailed herein and from time to time in the filings made by the companies with securities regulators. Readers are cautioned that mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. Mineral exploration and development of mines is an inherently risky business. Accordingly, the actual events may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. For more information on Metallic Minerals and the risks and challenges of their businesses, investors should review their annual filings that are available at www.sedar.com.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

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JIM ROGERS | Write It Down — Commodities Are Going To Do Better Than Stocks

Jim Rogers: Write It Down — Commodities Are Going To Do Better Than Stocks

Nov 20, 2018 12:49 pm
By Albert Lu

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Author and investor Jim Rogers believes the time is right to invest in commodities.

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“So much is going wrong all at once,” was the assessment by TrendMacro’s Chief Investment Officer Donald Luskin in a recent research note.
Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley struck an equally pessimistic tone in his note to clients: “We are in a bear market.”
“While 2018 is clearly not a year of recession, the market is speaking loudly that bad news is coming.”
Some of it has already arrived.
U.S. stocks, led by technology companies, slipped again on Monday in a move that wiped out November index gains. FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google (Alphabet)) were hit hardest. In recent months, the quintet of technology companies has lost a combined total of roughly $927 billion relative to the individual 52-week highs — a market cap evaporation approximately equal to Apple’s current value.
Although the sharpest pain was felt in technology, most other sectors joined in the pullback with only real estate and utilities barely avoiding losses.
“[We] think the US/China trade war is at the existential center,” wrote Luskin. Yet despite cautious and at times conflicting language from the White House, Luskin remains optimistic that the prospects for a trade deal are improving. In his view, the recent developments indicate the policy process is “reaching its most productive state.”
Nevertheless, investors hoping for an end-of-year rally are quickly running out of time. To make matters worse, the outlook for 2019 is far from promising.
Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs expects economic growth to “slow significantly next year.” He’s not alone.
MARKET RISKS
Of all the market risks, author and investor Jim Rogers is most concerned about Washington, DC: “That’s where the greatest risks are.”
“First of all, we have a central bank that has no clue what it’s been doing and, probably, what it will do in the future. We certainly have an executive, and legislative, branch that has no clue about what they’re doing,” he explained to Remy Blaire in a recent Sprott Media interview.
“When things go wrong, they’re going to make more mistakes. Be careful.”
Chris Gaffney of TIAA Bank World Markets is most concerned about risks to growth.
“The main risk is growth … a slowing global economy. As the Fed continues to raise interest rates, if we start to see a slowdown, that could certainly accelerate. China is of particular interest now.”
THE SEARCH FOR ALTERNATIVES
The challenge facing investors is the absence of clear alternatives. The stock pullback, which began quietly below the surface, has now engulfed the market’s biggest names. Roughly 40% of S&P 500 stocks have fallen into bear market territory, and now, with mega cap technology names participating in the pain, the major indexes have begun to suffer.
But where can investors seek refuge?
With interest rates still expected to rise, many investors lack confidence in the bond market. At the same time the absolute level of rates, though higher than before, discourages an outright move to cash.
Real estate, a popular alternative, has fared well in recent years. Yet as interest rates rise, particularly on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage, demand suffers — a trend reflected by the recent drop in homebuilder confidence.
Emerging markets provide yet another possibility, albeit a volatile one. The group, which has struggled this year, has outperformed U.S. stocks in recent weeks. The MSCI index of emerging market shares gained 0.5% on the session led by Chinese stocks.
Even Bitcoin, which began its historic run following last Thanksgiving, has offered no relief. The world’s largest and most well-known cryptocurrency shot above $19,000 before returning the entire gain plus an additional 30%. It now sits below $5,000, its lowest level in more than a year. The sharp reversal has been damaging to both crypto-speculators and the technology companies, particularly the semiconductor companies, that helped fuel the adoption.
OPPORTUNITIES ABROAD
For speculative opportunities, Rogers suggests looking abroad.
“Just like your parents taught you, buy low and sell high. China’s down 60% from its all-time high. Japan’s down 50% — I’m not buying Japan. I don’t own Japan. Russia is hated — I own Russian shares; I own Russian bonds; I own the currency.”
“There are places that are down, and down a lot. And if your mother was right, these are the places you should be looking.”
In particular, Rogers has been looking to Zimbabwe for opportunity.
“Zimbabwe’s a disaster. A man, in 1980, took over and became a dictator pretty quickly thereafter and proceeded to ruin the country for the next 37 years.”
Now, things are set to change.
“They threw him out last year and I know things are going to change. They may get worse, but I would suspect Zimbabwe is now an interesting place to look.”
Nevertheless, Rogers recommends caution.
“If you can’t find Zimbabwe on a map, if you don’t know where Ghana is, please do not invest in either of those countries. Only invest in what you, yourself, know a lot about. If you don’t know that Ghana has a lot of cocoa and a lot of gold, please don’t pay attention.”
It’s true. These opportunities aren’t for everyone.
Steve Todoruk, an investment executive at Sprott, would rather pass. Nonetheless, he agrees there are some interesting opportunities in West Africa, particularly in the Republic of Mali.
“For very special gold deposits in Mali, I’m prepared to take a certain amount of political risk, but the deposit has to be extra special.”
TIME FOR COMMODITIES
The general underperformance of commodities relative to stocks may signal a speculative opportunity.
“Sugar, believe it or not, is down something like 80% from its all-time high. [T]here’s not much in the world, in life, that’s down 80% over the past 40 years,” said Rogers.
Regarding oil and the possibility of OPEC action, Rogers added,
“I have learned not to pay too much attention to [OPEC] … if you’re going to figure out the price of oil.”
“Oil is making a complicated bottom. We’re going to look back one day and say, ‘2015, ‘16, ‘17, ‘18, ‘19 oil made its bottom and it went up again.’ … So be careful, don’t sell your oil.”
Gold, the historical alternative, has been surprisingly quiet given the stock market volatility. Gaffney believes dollar strength and rate hiking cycle are primarily responsible.
“Investors really haven’t moved back in to the precious metals as a safe haven. We did expect to see some of that buying occur as this volatility has hit the markets. But there are a number of factors that continue to weigh on the price of gold, mainly a stronger U.S. dollar and interest rate expectations … we do expect the Fed to continue raising rates.”
So, is it time to buy commodities? Rogers believes it is.
“It is the time to buy commodities again. I would say to you, write it down — commodities are going to do better than stocks.”
Roger that.
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