Category Archives: Precious Metals

MILES FRANKLIN Laws of Investing

Laws of Investing
Miles Franklin sponsored this article by Gary Christenson. The opinions are his.
Lance Roberts listed James Montier’s 7-Immutable Laws of Investing. They are:
  1. Always insist on a margin of safety.
  2. This time is never different.
  3. Be patient and wait for the fat pitch.
  4. Be contrarian.
  5. Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a number.
  6. Be leery of leverage.
  7. Never invest in something you don’t understand.
Those sensible rules apply to gold and silver.
ALWAYS INSIST ON A MARGIN OF SAFETY: Don’t buy gold or silver on margin. Always take physical possession personally or in non-bank storage vaults. Trust that governments and the banking cartel will drive nominal prices far higher as they devalue currencies.
Problem: The gold and silver paper markets (COMEX and LBMA) are managed markets. The managers are incented to maintain low prices. This will change. I believe prices will rise, slowly and then rapidly in 2019 and 2020.
THIS TIME IS NEVER DIFFERENT: The banking cartel will “print” fiat currency units until they can’t. Governments will spend in excess of revenues until they can’t. The only question is how rapidly fiat currency units fall in value.
BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THE FAT PITCH. Trust the banking cartel to push fiat currency units lower and gold and silver prices higher. Central banks (not the Fed) are buying gold. Individuals should buy gold and silver.
BE CONTRARIAN: When others proclaim gold and silver are dead, then buy. When gold or silver prices have increased by a factor of five or ten, reconsider the risk and reward profile.
RISK IS THE PERMANENT LOSS OF CAPITAL, NEVER A NUMBER: Gold and silver coins and bars will always stay valuable. There is risk of permanent loss of capital with COMEX paper gold and silver, buying on margin, or trusting banks to hold your metals. Minimize risk!
BE LEERY OF LEVERAGE: The COMEX creates leverage with paper gold and silver contracts. Assets can disappear but debt remains.
NEVER INVEST IN SOMETHING YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND:
  • All fiat currency units devalue.
  • Many currency units have turned into waste paper and are no longer used.
  • The almighty dollar is now a mini-dollar, and soon will become a micro-dollar.
  • Propaganda and government statistics may delay the inevitable, but they cannot prevent an implosion or reset.
  • The banking cartel created too much debt. That debt will be repaid in devalued fiat currency units or defaulted.
  • Gold and silver do not default and have no counter-party risk.
  • Gold and silver stored in a non-bank vault are boring. Sometime boring is good. History will show that 2018 – 2025 was one of those times when boring investments in gold and silver were necessary.
These sensible rules apply to debt-based fiat currencies.
ALWAYS INSIST ON A MARGIN OF SAFETY: With fiat currencies a supposed margin of safety is automatic. The government makes pieces of paper legal tender and prints more paper as needed. Governments and central banks encourage fiat currencies because controlling the currencies benefits them.
Problem: Politicians, governments and central banks inevitably print too many pieces of paper. The currency loses value and is replaced, shunned or becomes worthless. The “bad money” drives out the good money (gold and silver) because few people want to exchange valuable gold and silver coins for soon-to-be-worthless paper currencies. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina and the list goes on…
THIS TIME IS NEVER DIFFERENT: Most unbacked currencies have disappeared into the trash heap of history. Remaining fiat currencies – dollars, euros, pounds and yen – are devaluing every year toward worthlessness. This time will not be different regarding the demise of fiat currencies.
BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THE FAT PITCH: A “fat pitch” in the fiat currency world is a profit mania from speculative trades. Buy Amazon stock at $6 in 2001 and watch it run past $2,000 in 2018 – a huge win for fiat currencies invested in Amazon.
Problem: How do you find the next Microsoft, Netflix or Amazon?
Problem: Don’t overstay the party. Remember Enron, Global Crossing, and hundreds of other high fliers that crashed into the dirt. The investment landscape is littered with debris from winners that turned into losers. Deutsche Bank and General Electric sell for small fractions of their earlier highs.
Problem: When you cash out, how much will the fiat currency units buy? The banking cartel and government deficit spending guarantee further devaluation of fiat currency units.
BE CONTRARIAN: A contrarian buys when “blood is in the streets” and sells when everything looks rosy. Remember the “permanently high plateau” story before the 1929 crash. A contrarian knows propaganda from government accountants and central bank Ph.D.’s has limited usefulness. The cheerleaders sell their story and hope the public will keep their misguided faith in fiat currencies.
Problem: The contrarians in the fiat currency world want to escape. They buy hard assets including gold and silver. The managers of fiat currencies discourage opting out.
Problem: People might abandon fiat banks and only use cash. Their solution: Make cash illegal and force people to use digital currencies.
Problem: People might lose faith in stock and bond markets after multiple scandals and crashes. Solution: Force interest rates to near zero or negative levels and discourage parking cash in banks.
RISK IS A PERMANENT LOSS OF CAPITAL, NOT A NUMBER: The real risk is that the managers will abuse fiat currencies, print too much, and devalue the currency so far that people rebel. It has happened in many countries and will occur again. What is your capital worth if you measure your paper assets in dollars or euros and both currencies fall to near zero value?
BE LEERY OF LEVERAGE: Leverage results from investment debt. Buy stocks on margin and watch profits soar in a bull market or shudder as bankruptcies expand in the inevitable bear market.
NEVER INVEST IN SOMETHING YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND: Advisors encourage buying for the long term. Did they explain the inevitable loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies?
Problem: Fiat currencies must devalue. People hope the nominal gains from paper investments offset the devaluation of the currency.
Problem: If people realized how rapidly currencies devalue, they would object to rampant price inflation. Solution: create a Consumer Price Index (CPI) and “manage” the results.
Problem: Devaluation and inflation run in cycles. Inflation was high throughout the 1970s while hard assets soared, and the stock market stagnated. During the “age of paper” from the early 1980s to 2000, the stock market soared, and hard assets languished. Stocks have bubbled higher since 2011 while the COMEX crushed silver prices. Cycles favor hard assets for the next several years.
Solution: If we use unbacked debt-based fiat currencies, the stock markets, gold, silver and real estate will rise exponentially over many decades. After extended moves, the risk – reward profile changes. Now is a risky time for stocks and a high reward time for gold and silver.
WHEN WILL THE PARTY END?
Per James Sinclair, the party ends in mid-2019.
My opinion: The fireworks begin in May-June 2019.
You may find value in the following articles:
Show Me The Money” by Christenson
Will It Ever End” by David Schectman
The Magic Money Tree” by Christenson
Miles Franklin at 1-800-822-8080 sells gold and silver bullion and coins. They are boring. Now is a time when boring is good.
Gary Christenson
About Miles Franklin
Miles Franklin was founded in January, 1990 by David MILES Schectman. David’s son, Andy Schectman, our CEO, joined Miles Franklin in 1991. Miles Franklin’s primary focus from 1990 through 1998 was the Swiss Annuity and we were one of the two top firms in the industry. In November, 2000, we decided to de-emphasize our focus on off-shore investing and moved primarily into gold and silver, which we felt were about to enter into a long-term bull market cycle. Our timing and our new direction proved to be the right thing to do.
We are rated A+ by the BBB with zero complaints on our record. We are recommended by many prominent newsletter writers including Doug Casey, Jim Sinclair, David Morgan, Future Money Trends and the SGT Report.
For your protection, we are licensed, regulated, bonded and background checked per Minnesota State law.
Miles Franklin
801 Twelve Oaks Center Drive
Suite 834
Wayzata, MN 55391
1-800-822-8080
Copyright © 2019. All Rights Reserved.

MILES FRANKLIN Do You Know Where China Gets Its Gold?

David’s Commentary:
I am on vacation this week and next, but there are a few articles I want to get out to you that are very worthwhile.
It’s early Friday morning, but gold and silver have popped back up, with gold once again taking out the important $1,300 barrier and silver is following suit, up $0.19 to $15.34. I would like to see gold hold above $1,300 going into the weekend.
Are you disappointed with the price of gold? Do you know that Gold is now as cheap as it was in 1970 at $35 and in 2000 at $270. 
David’s Commentary(in blue font all below):
From its bottom at $35, gold rose to $850 and from its bottom at $270 gold rose to $1,900. What does that suggest going forward from the current price of just below $1,300? 
Thursday was another day of quietly engineered price declines in gold, silver and palladium and, as ‘da boyz’ always do, they started their attack in the very thinly-traded overnight market in the Far East — and once the sell stops got hit, then the price decline becomes self sustaining. But when it stopped or reversed a bit for whatever reason, the powers-that-be were there to sell whatever contracts it took to resume the downward price path. That was in full force yesterday.
Ted Butler likes to point out that the only thing that really matters in determining the price of gold and silver is the net long or short positions of the Managed Money traders. The Commercials (i.e. JPMorgan and buddies) dupe them into buying and selling, which controls the price. Here is what Ed Steer wrote last night.
Here’s a 5-year chart courtesy of Nick Laird. It shows the gold price plotted against the net long or short positions of the Managed Money traders. This graph should leave no doubt in anyone’s mind that it’s only what they do…or what the commercial traders trick them into doing that controls the gold price.
 
Check out the correlation between the gold price — and the net positions held by the Managed Money traders, appears to be well in excess of 90 percent.  That’s why Ted Butler says that it’s only what the Managed Money traders are up to, that is the controlling factor in the gold price. The chart for silver is very similar.
 
The top half of the chart shows the gold price in blue — and the thin black line [on both the upper and lower charts] shows the net long or short positions of the Managed Money traders.  
Do you know where China gets its gold? Well, it keeps all the gold that it mines, and most of the rest comes from Swiss refiners. They, along with India (and even Russia) are accumulating all the gold that they can get their hands on. They will not sell it, they are the ultimate “strong hands.”
 
2018 Swiss gold exports = 46% of global gold production (Lawrie   Williams)
 
We have often in these pages recounted the importance of gold refined or re-refined and exported via Switzerland in terms of global gold flows, and the latest figures out of the small European nation serve to emphasise that point despite 2018 being perhaps a weaker year for the nation’s overall gold trade. In terms of gold imports the country took in some 1,500 tonnes of gold during the year and exported 1,473 tonnes – mostly to Asia where Mainland China was the dominant recipient. Indeed if we add exports to Hong Kong to the Chinese total, given that most of this will have been fabricated and re-exported to the Chinese mainland, the flows to the Asian giant alone amounted to around 729 tonnes of gold last year.
 
Switzerland has a batch of major gold refineries which specialise in taking doré bullion from mines, scrap gold and large refined gold bars – the latter primarily from the U.K., probably the centre for global gold trade – and producing high purity gold in the small kilobar sizes and wafers most in demand in Asia. The amounts flowing through Switzerland have probably fallen in recent years due to the building of new gold refineries in Asia and the Middle East (some owned by by the Swiss refiners) but nevertheless the amount of gold routed through Switzerland remains substantial. In 2018 it amounted to around the equivalent of nearly half global new mined gold. Indeed if one takes Chinese gold production (which all remains in China) of around 400 tonnes out of the equation, Swiss refineries handle an amount of gold equivalent to some 50% of global new mined non-Chinese output.
 
The other statistic which can be gleaned from the Swiss gold export figures for all of 2018 is that around 1,266 tonnes — or close to 86% — flowed to Asian and Middle Eastern nations. This serves to again emphasise the continuing flows of gold from West to East, with the Eastern holdings seen as being in stronger hands and less likely to flow back into the markets.
 
This 1-chart gold-related article from Lawrie was posted on the Sharps Pixley website yesterday-
Egon von Greyerz always has very interesting things to say about gold. And the following article is no exception. Sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings, but the party is over. We are very close to an inevitable global mega-bubble. When it pops, it will be worse than anything that came before.
We must understand that the world has never faced risk of this magnitude ever. We are now in the very final seconds of the global mega bubble, the likes of which the world has never seen before. What will happen next will be worse than the fall of the Roman Empire, much worse than the South Sea and Mississippi Bubbles and will create a disaster that will dwarf the 1930s Depression.
The problem is easy to define. It is all about debts and liabilities. Global debt is up three-fold since 2000.
Instead of worrying about the cause, now is the time to focus on how to protect yourself financially.
Gold has throughout history been the solution to a mismanaged economy based on deficits, debts and money printing. But it must be physical gold, stored outside the financial system in the safest jurisdictions and vaults. It is essential to have direct ownership of the gold and direct access. ETFs, futures, or part ownership of bars are not proper wealth preservation.
How high could gold and silver go?
A recent KWN article by Lundeen projects $3,000 silver and $30,000 gold. Those are not unrealistic targets and are probably based on normal inflation. With hyperinflation, the future gold price is likely to have many more zeroes.
But first, gold must move past its key resistance at $1,350. That’s been the impenetrable barrier for the last six years.
Once through resistance at $1,350, it will go very quickly all the way through the old high of $1,920. Remember that this high has already been broken in many currencies, so it is not a major hurdle to clear.
Egon von Greyerz
3 DOZEN REASONS TO HOLD GOLD
 The world financial system has been in a euphoric state since 2009. It seems that the Keynesians, like Krugman or the Modern Money Theorists (MMT) are right after all. All asset markets are near the highs and show little sign of changing direction. As Treasury Secretary Mellon said in September 1929: “There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.” All that is required is more of the same medicine, more credit, more money printing to make a virtuous circle of eternal prosperity.
Clearly the Cassandras are all wrong with their pessimistic forecasts that never happen. The Greek Princess had the ability to forecast the future but her curse was that nobody believed her accurate predictions. (Cassandra article)
We modern Cassandras are in the same position. We are certain that the theories based on spending and borrowing yourself out of the biggest debt bubble in history are totally fallacious. We know that a debt problem cannot be solved by more debt. No one defined it more succinctly than Albert Einstein: “We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.”
THE PARTY IS OVER
But sadly for the world, Cassandra will be right this time also since the party is over. The Time Bomb below says it all. Contained in the red bomb are all the explosive elements that will change the history of the world. Any single one of these risks is sufficient to trigger a collapse of the world economy. The combined explosive nature of all the risks will not only disprove MMT but also create a world, which will be a lot less pleasant to live in.
This cleansing of a sick financial system and a morally decadent world will be totally necessary to create new green shoots based on real, sustainable values. But the transition will create great suffering for the whole world.
THE WORLD NEEDS STATESMEN
In the final stages of a major super cycle, there is normally a total lack of clarity in the thinking of world leaders. But not only that, there is also a total lack of leadership. Right now this is exactly what we have. Countries normally get the leaders they deserve. The world is in desperate need of statesmen who can take uncomfortable decisions to get the world out of the mess it is in. But looking around the world, there is no statesman in any country. There are countries with strong leaders like Putin in Russia and Orban in Hungary but real statesmanship does not exist anywhere.
Look at France where Macron becomes more unpopular by the day. Soon every Frenchman will wear a yellow vest and it is already spreading to other countries. The French economy and financial system are weakening and the inequality between the rich and the poor has the seeds of yet another French Revolution.
Germany has been the biggest beneficiary of a weak Euro but in spite of that, the German economy is now deteriorating rapidly. Merkel’s socialist policies will have disastrous effects on the German economy in coming years, exacerbated by an immigration policy, which will create a major economic and social disaster.
When Deutsche Bank (DB) collapses, which is probable, which will have repercussions not only for German banks but for the global banking system. DB’s derivative book of EUR 50 trillion is 15x German GDP. When counterparty fails, the Bundesbank and the ECB will need to print more Euros than during the hyperinflationary Weimar Republic. In addition, the Bundesbank and the German financial system are the biggest guarantors of the ECB and the Target2 lending to Southern European countries which are all likely to default on their commitments.
The UK leadership is extremely weak. Theresa May’s government is irresolute and divisive. They have spent 2 years solely trying to extricate itself from the EU. This issue has totally dominated UK politics at the expense of the economy. With 2 weeks left to Brexit-day, the UK is nowhere nearer an agreement with the Brussels elite who have consistently frustrated the process.
The US is bankrupt with a currency, which is living on borrowed time. Trump had good intentions but has been shackled by the Deep State. When the biggest economy in the world collapses, it will have major repercussions on the world.
Every major country or continent in the world has got problems of a magnitude that will bring the country down. In addition to the above nations, this includes Japan, China, South America and many more.
FINAL SECONDS OF A GLOBAL MEGA BUBBLE
We must understand that the world has never faced risk of this magnitude ever. We are now in the very final seconds of the global mega bubble, the likes of which the world has never seen before. What will happen next will be worse than the fall of the Roman Empire, much worse than the South Sea and Mississippi Bubbles and will create a disaster that will dwarf the 1930s Depression.
GLOBAL DEBT UP 3X SINCE 2000
The problem is simple to define and is all based around debts and liabilities. At the beginning of this century, global debt was $80 trillion. When the Great Financial Crisis started in 2006, global debt had gone up by 56% to $125 trillion. Today it is $250 trillion.
Thus, in this century global debt has more than trebled. So far MMT seems to work. Just print and borrow more money and the economy will take care of itself. Einstein said it won’t work and the laws of nature also tell us that this is a saga that will have an unhappy ending.
PROTECTION IS CRITICAL
Rather than trying to figure out what the exact trigger will be, it is much more important to focus on how to protect yourself financially.
Gold has throughout history been the solution to a mismanaged economy based on deficits, debts and money printing. But it must be physical gold, stored outside the financial system in the safest jurisdictions and vaults. It is essential to have direct ownership of the gold and direct access. ETFs, futures, or part ownership of bars are not proper wealth preservation.
$30,000 GOLD AND $3,000 SILVER
The Krugmans and MMT fans will now get more than they ever asked for. Because the world will soon start the biggest money printing bonanza in history. Bearing in mind that total debt and liabilities, including derivatives are over $2 quadrillion, we could easily see similar or higher amounts of money printing. A recent KWN article by Lundeen projects $3,000 silver and $30,000 gold. Those are not unrealistic targets and are probably based on normal inflation. With hyperinflation, the future gold price is likely to have many more zeroes.
We must remember that we are holding gold primarily to preserve wealth since it is the best store of value and represents stable purchasing power. But gold is likely to do better than to maintain purchasing power for the simple reason that there will be a massive shortage of physical gold when the gold paper market blows up. This is why it is critical to hold physical gold, bars or coins.
I wrote about the Gold Maginot Line a few weeks ago which is at $1,350. This line has stopped gold since 2013. After a first attempt to break through 3 weeks ago, we are now in a small correction and gold is building momentum to break through the Line. Once through, it will go very quickly all the way through the old high of $1,920. Remember that this high has already been broken in many currencies, so it is not a major hurdle to clear.
3 DOZEN REASONS TO HOLD GOLD AS INSURANCE
For anyone who doesn’t understand the necessity of owning gold, just go through the list of risks in the Time Bomb. And once you have gone through it, go through it again and again and again. The list includes 3 dozen reasons why you need to hold physical gold as protection or insurance against unprecedented global risk.
Anyone who doesn’t own gold today mustn’t wait for the next move up to take place. That could be too late. Once the real move starts, it will be very difficult to get hold of gold at any price. At some point there will no physical gold on offer. The paper gold positions of banks and futures exchanges will see to that.
Central banks will also have major problems. Most of them have covertly sold their official holdings. And most of what they have left, they have leased to the market. That gold has gone to China, India and Russia and all the central banks have left is an IOU from a bullion bank that won’t be honored.
CHINA’S INSATIABLE APPETITE FOR GOLD
With a guaranteed absolute mess in the world financial system, resulting panic in the gold market now is the very last chance to be protected.
Gold is today as cheap as it was in 1970 at $35 and in 2000 at $270:
I find these types of comparisons of little use, but they sure are interesting. Will history repeat? It wouldn’t surprise me.
Did you ever wonder why no bankers ever go to jail? Eric Holder and President Obama pushed through legislation that saw to it that it would not happen.
Ever Wonder Why No Bankers Go To Jail?
“The sovereign in the U.S. is supposed to be ‘We The People’- first three words in The Constitution. It’s not ‘We The People.’ The sovereign power of the U.S. is a criminal global banking cartel. Period. Full stop.”
“Criminal immunity is tantamount to Sovereignty. Any entity that has criminal immunity has Sovereign power. For example, you don’t need the Constitution to coin money and regulate the value thereof. You can simply counterfeit money and rig markets. And in fact, rigging markets is what they did.”
“Collateral Consequences.” It was a term introduced to the Executive branch of Government, which includes the Justice Department by Eric Holder during the Clinton Administration. This paved the way for Justice Department prosecutors to let bankers off the hook for obvious criminal behavior.
In a 1999 memo entitled “Bringing Criminal Charges Against Corporations” (section IX on page 9) written when Holder was deputy U.S. attorney general, Eric Holder argued that government officials could take into account “collateral consequences” when prosecuting corporate crimes. By this he meant prosecutors should take into account the effect prosecuting a corporation or corporate individual will have on “innocent third parties.” That principle right there gave the keys to the kingdom to the banks. It also explains why the SEC is so reluctant to prosecute Elon Musk.
This “consider collateral consequences to innocent 3rd parties” is what led to the bailout of the banks in 2008 and the absence of any criminal prosecutions against bank executives despite the overwhelming evidence of culpability. Oh by the way, Eric Holder just happened to be appointed Attorney General in 2009 by Obama to make sure that Section IX of Holder’s 1999 memo held up during the period of time when the banks and their CEO’s should have been held accountable and sent to jail.
Peter Shiff says once the dollar bubble is pricked, the record debt will bring everything tumbling down. We are in total agreement with him on this. QE will return. This is just the calm before the storm.
I think the world is going back to gold. . . . $5,000, $10,000 (per ounce) who knows how high it’s going to go. There is no real ceiling on the price of gold because there is no floor to the value of the dollar and other fiat currency. . . . Gold is going to skyrocket.”
Shiff says that silver will outperform gold. The last time silver took off, it went from $4 to $50. It will do better this time around.
Greg Hunter USA Watchdog
Money manager Peter Schiff says even though there is “record debt everywhere,” the Fed thinks the economy is fine. Schiff explains, “The actual amount of money the government is borrowing is much larger than what they pretend they are borrowing with the official budget. I think the national debt was up around $1.5 trillion in 2018. . . . It’s probably going to be even greater in 2019. . . . We have the biggest annual trade deficit ever in 2018. We’re going to beat that record in 2019. So, we have the twin deficits going off the charts. None of that worries (Fed Head Jay) Powell. We have record corporate debt, record individual debt, record student debt, auto debt, credit card debt and none of that concerns Powell.  We have record debt for state governments and municipalities. We have underfunded pensions in both the public and private sector. We also have interest rates rising. They have risen quite a bit from a few years ago, and all of that is an added cost on an over-leveraged economy. The reason the Fed did this about face, the reason they are now ‘patient’ and the reason they stopped raising interest rates . . . is all about the United States. . . . It’s all about the enormous debt we have. The Fed inflated a bubble where you had all this debt. It’s impossible to normalize interest rates in this scenario. So, they came up with an excuse to stop, but what the markets still don’t realize is it is not enough. The Fed is ultimately going to go back to 0%. The Fed is not going to shrink its balance sheet. They are going to blow it up bigger than it was before they started to shrink it. There is no way to stop the recession and no way to stop the bear market. They are going to have to go back to the QE, but I don’t think the Fed is going to succeed in blowing a bigger bubble.”
Schiff goes on to say, “I think when they start to try to reflate the assets in stocks, real estate and in bonds, they are just going to prick the dollar bubble, and that’s when we have a real crisis. . . . The dollar is going to collapse, and America’s days of living beyond its means is going to come to an end.”
On gold, Schiff says, “I think this is the calm before the storm. People don’t really perceive it. Maybe it’s like the Wile E. Coyote who has just run off a cliff, and he just hasn’t looked down yet. He doesn’t realize where he’s standing. . . . Gold shorts are going to lose an incredible amount of money. That’s probably one of the most foolish things you can do.
There are a lot of great things out there to short. Gold is the last thing you should be shorting. For central banks, gold is the safest reserve asset. It’s the only asset that is not somebody else’s liability. . . . I think the world is going back to gold. . . . $5,000, $10,000 (per ounce) who knows how high it’s going to go. There is no real ceiling on the price of gold because there is no floor to the value of the dollar and other fiat currency. . . . Gold is going to skyrocket.”
And silver? Schiff says, “Look at last time. Silver went up to $50 per ounce from $3 to $4 an ounce in 2000-2001. Gold went to $1,900 per ounce, but silver went to $50 per ounce. It was a much bigger percentage gain. . . . If I am right about gold going to $5,000 to $10,000 (per ounce), I am sure the percentage gain in silver will be even bigger.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with money manager Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital and Schiff Gold.
Watch the yield on the 10-Year Treasury. It is the most important bond in the financial system. Lately it’s broken a multi-decade downtrend to the upside.
 
When bond yields rise, bond prices fall.
 
When bond prices fall, debt deflation hits the financial system.
 
When debt deflation hits the financial system, the financial system BLOWS UP.
THIS is why the Fed is in a panic. It’s why the Fed has stopped hiking rates. And it’s why the Fed is desperate to launch even MORE extreme monetary policy as soon as possible.
 
David Brady says a return to QE is inevitable. I absolutely agree with his assessment. The big banks know it and they are waging a last big assault on gold to squeeze as much money out of it as possible before the big move up. He says, “This could be the last buy-the-dip opportunity we get, courtesy of the Bullion Banks.” 
 
Sprott Money
 
Bullion Banks Appear Ready to Slam Gold Imminently
 
 
The big picture remains the same: When the Fed reverts to QE and the dollar tanks, Gold and everything else will soar. I believe a return to QE is inevitable at this point.
 
If the stock market dump in the 4th quarter has taught us anything, it is that the markets cannot survive without ever-increasing stimulus, just like any Ponzi scheme. Meanwhile, U.S. deficits and debt continue to soar, with unfunded liabilities about to hit en masse next year. At the same time, economic activity and tax receipts are falling. This means more and more treasury bonds are being issued when the Fed is still reducing its balance sheet and foreign buyers have gone on strike. There is only so much the domestic market can soak up before becoming saturated, forcing yields to rise and debt interest costs to explode. The Fed will be forced to revert to QE to prop up stocks and bonds (keep yields down), and will sacrifice the dollar in the process.
Now, I don’t want to get into a whole discussion about the manipulation of the metals market, but this is downright obvious. There is no justification for such a massive increase in open interest, especially after such a tiny move up and with Funds holding a relatively small long position, other than the Bullion Banks are loading up on the short side to prevent Gold going higher and planning to make a sizeable profit in the process, as always.
 
The bad news is that this likely means that we are going lower, perhaps up to $100 lower.
 
The Banks are clearly going to attempt to squeeze almost everyone out of the market before the massive rally to come, in my opinion. The good news is that in each of the prior cases this has occurred, most notably 2008, the price rebounded to new highs after the sell-off. This could be the last buy-the-dip opportunity we get, courtesy of the Bullion Banks. 
About Miles Franklin
Miles Franklin was founded in January, 1990 by David MILES Schectman. David’s son, Andy Schectman, our CEO, joined Miles Franklin in 1991. Miles Franklin’s primary focus from 1990 through 1998 was the Swiss Annuity and we were one of the two top firms in the industry. In November, 2000, we decided to de-emphasize our focus on off-shore investing and moved primarily into gold and silver, which we felt were about to enter into a long-term bull market cycle. Our timing and our new direction proved to be the right thing to do.
We are rated A+ by the BBB with zero complaints on our record. We are recommended by many prominent newsletter writers including Doug Casey, Jim Sinclair, David Morgan, Future Money Trends and the SGT Report.
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FEDERAL RESERVE Inflations Myths Exposed

The Federal Reserve has used a stunning array of tricks to convince the world that it has any clue what it’s doing. Yet keep in mind, this is the same institution that couldn’t see the housing bubble. Even after it started imploding (check out these comments by Ben Bernanke or Hank Paulson if you need some verification).

Of course one of the most often used whoppers is the Federal Reserve’s Keynesian perspective on the topic of inflation. Where the Fed fears that if prices aren’t rising fast enough, that somehow that’s a problem.

Personally, my belief in recent years has been this is just a 3 Stooges routine set up to confuse the public. While in reality it’s difficult to believe the Fed really doesn’t understand the damaging impact it’s creating on the economy.

So to resolve the myths that are perpetrated, and help you read through the Fed’s nonsense so you can plan for what actually will occur, click to watch the video now!

Chris Marcus

Arcadia Economics
“Helping You Thrive While We Watch The Dollar Die”
www.ArcadiaEconomics.com

MILES FRANKLIN Show Me the Money!

MILES FRANKLIN If It Sounds Like I’m Repeating Myself-It’s Because I Am.

Book Review: Basic Investing in Resource Stocks-The Idiot’s Guide, by Robert Moriarty

By Jayant Bhandari / March 09, 2019 / Article Link

In the recent years investors have lost a lot of money in the resource sector. This shouldn’t have been the case had investors paid attention to the work of Bob Moriarty. Exactly when the sector was losing money, Mr. Moriarty was investing in resource stocks—of the likes of Novo Resources and Irving Resources—that made him 10 to 20 times his investment. In some cases, more.

As Warren Buffet says, “People make investing… more difficult than it should be.”

In his book, “Basic Investing in Resource Stocks—the Idiot’s Guide,” Mr. Moriarty provides a common-sense approach to investing in the resource sector.

“You will make mistakes when investing, but make sure you make new ones.”

Those who have focused their investment life in the resource sector, as I have, tend to think that it is full of idiots and liars, or those living a lifestyle using shareholder money. Mr. Moriarty thinks that other sectors are worse.

Referring to the cryptocurrency mania—which he calls “Bitcon”—about which he started writing on 321gold when it was peaking, he says that total value of Bitcon has fallen from $800 billion to $136 billion. I thought that there was a typo. Had he written “billions” instead of “millions?” But his wasn’t an error. A massive amount of money has changed hands, from gullible people to conmen or street-smart traders.

But the biggest con of all is the fiat currency system that surreptitiously steals people’s money and puts the future generation into bondage. This cannot continue. A “great reset” awaits, for there are far too many systemic risks today.

A product of the fiat currency is the derivative business, a boondoggle that poses significant systemic risks.

All debts must be paid, and the world is awash with it. There are far too many black swans for one not to come into the scene. “The Gilets Jaunes movement of France is merely the opening scene,” says Mr Moriarty. That is where protecting oneself from what is another person’s liability is important, making gold (or silver or platinum or palladium or rhodium) one of the ways to preserve one’s wealth.

In the investment space, a lot of wealth is getting destroyed, misallocated or moving into the hands of conmen, private or public, leaving gullible investors high and dry. What one must learn early on is the concept of probabilities before one starts throwing one’s dice.

One, however, cannot depend on the advice of “experts,” which reminds me of “Nobody Knows Anything,” another book by Mr. Moriarty.

Mr. Moriarty advises people to have the courage—once they have studied their homework properly—to have contrarian thinking, even if it goes completely against the emotions of the market.

There is legitimate information in the market and there is noise. Internet should have made it easier for information to flow freely. Alas, it is noise that has grown bigger than the real signal.

“Change your mind when information changes” makes common-sense, except that most people are resistant to changing their views. The end result is that 90% of investors lose money. While Mr. Moriarty advises not to be a part of that 90%, he is happy they exist, to help him make the extra money.

Read the above words of wisdom in his short and sweet book, including the description of the resource industry, and some saucy stories of his investments.

Jayant Bhandari

ROVER METALS | Firm Advancing Gold Exploration in the Northwest Territories

 

Judson Culter the CEO and Director of Rover Metals (TSX.V: ROVR | OTCQB: ROVMF) sits down with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable to discuss the value proposition of the Cabin Lake Property. In this interview Mr. Culter will provide important updates on the Uptown Gold Property, Cabin Lake Project, and Slemon Lake. Rover Metals is a natural resource exploration company specialized in Canadian precious metal resources (specifically gold). In this interview we will discuss the recent accomplishments of Rover Metals. Ranging from IPO and the implementation of a methodical process of building an exploration company that is positioning itself for success from land acquisitions, permit approval, OTC listing, option agreements and completed the first phase of the 2018 exploration program.

VIDEO

AUDIO

TRANSCRIPT

Original Source: https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2019/03/10/firm-advancing-gold-exploration-in-the-northwest-territories.html

Firm Advancing Gold Exploration in the Northwest Territories Contributed Opinion

Source: Maurice Jackson for Streetwise Reports  (3/10/19)

Maurice Jackson

Judson Culter, CEO of Rover Metals, speaks with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable about historical exploration on his company’s properties, as well as current exploration plans.

Gold exploration

Maurice Jackson: Welcome to Proven and Probable. I’m your host, Maurice Jackson, and joining us for our conversation is Judson Culter, the CEO and director of Rover Metals Corp. (ROVR:TSX.V; ROVMF:OTCQB). Mr. Culter, welcome to the show.

Judson Culter: Thanks for having me, Maurice.

Maurice Jackson: Glad to have you back on the program. We last spoke in January of 2018, and since then Rover Metals has completed its IPO and implemented a methodical process of building an exploration company that is positioning itself for success from land acquisitions, permit approval, OTC listing, option agreements and completed the first phase of the 2018 exploration program. But before we begin, Mr. Culter, for first time listeners, who is Rover Metals?

Judson Culter: Rover Metals, we are a precious metal exploration company, specifically gold is our focus currently. We’re co-listed in the United States OTCQB: ROVMF, as well as Canada on the TSX.V ROVR. Our project portfolio is concentrated in and around Yellowknife’s Northwest Territories, one of the most mining friendly jurisdictions in Canada and for North America for that matter. I say that just because that’s where our (Canada’s) diamond mines are. That’s historically where several of our gold mines have been. It’s really the primary employer in the Northwest Territories. Outside of government, mining is it.

Maurice Jackson: Why has Rover Metals received so much interest here of lately?

Judson Culter: I think that’s a two pronged answer. First is just credibility. Going back to 2017 on call with you, Maurice, if one listens to that interview, we talked about how we were going to go public, and how we were going to drill our resources, and how we were going to look to add new resources in the similar area code of Yellowknife.

We’ve successfully accomplished all those tasks. I believe we have strong foundational base in our existing shareholders. We’ve got a lot of credibility with them. We get a lot of word of mouth. I think that goes a long way in a market that can be a little bit over saturated in the junior mining space with which projects or which management teams do you back. I think really that we’ve gotten recognition for that now, which is really helping to drive our current success.

The second prong answer speaks to the projects themselves. Rover has the Cabin Lake Project, which is really what the market is asking for, and that’s why we bought it. When we receive the results from our drilling, we believe we will a high-grade gold historical resource that will contain super high grades that the market wants to see as confirmation that this really could be the next gold mine in the Yellowknife, Northwest Territories.

Not to mention this project itself has all the merits a speculator wants. We have solid infrastructure, the Blue Fish Hydro Dam, roads, all the accessibility and proven area of past producers. The market is beginning to recognize the credibility of the management team and the assets. Also, the awareness that we are near drilling in the not-too-distant future has investors’ attention as well.

Maurice Jackson: Justin, what is the driving thesis for Rover Metals in regards to the Kevin Lake gold project?

Judson Culter: The driving thesis has not changed. It’s the same thesis as in the late 1980s. There’s a project called the Lupin Gold Mine that produced from 1983 to 2003 in the north, which is an iron formation, super high-grade gold. The thought at the time was to go and find another one, and that’s what they thought they had here. This is when Cominco and Freeport McMoRan and then Aber Resources, that’s what they thought they had here. They drove 7,500 meters of at or near-surface iron hosted high-grade gold. The only reason they stopped is because somebody found kimberlites a few years after, and the diamond boom in the Territories began.

This project just kind of sat on the back burner as a result of that. Aber Resources, the owner of the time, of course, went on to find the kimberlites. That’s some historical context on this project and why it’s just now coming back to life.

Maurice Jackson: Talk to us about the business acumen here. When and how was Rover Metals able to acquire the Cabin Lake gold project in such a highly contested and sought out district?

Judson Culter: It wasn’t easy; when we looked at the business case, we figured that with a little bit of just rolling up our sleeves, and getting up there, and meeting the right stakeholders, and just recognizing that this is an area that needs new mines and new projects.

I didn’t think it would be like other areas in British Columbia, for example where BC, trying to get First Nation endorsement can be very difficult. There’s so many competing industries that people can really make a way of life in a jurisdiction like British Columbia, whereas knowing a little bit about the Northwest Territories, mining is a big deal up there. People want to see projects succeed.

When we went into the Cabin Lake project, we knew we had to get a couple of things there to get permits. We knew we had to get our neighbors, Tlicho First Nations, on board. We also did our homework and knew that the Tlicho First Nations had previously worked with Fortune Minerals, as well as Nighthawk Gold. When we got to it, there was a framework in place. There was a government that had been formed.

The Tlicho government and the land use formal plan to work within, for application permits, and applications. So, once we got to it, it ended up only being four months to get it permitted. I think it seemed to keep getting easier for us, and it ended up being a decision that looks like it was the right one to make.

Maurice Jackson: Regarding mineral rights in your project portfolio, are there any reversionary interests?

Judson Culter: There’s a 1.5% NSR that we’ve got viable down to a half percentage point for CA$250,000 per quarter percentage.

Maurice Jackson: And does Rover Metals own the mineral rights outright 100%?

Judson Culter: That’s correct. Yes, not just at Cabin Lake, but at the Cabin Lake group of projects. The claims themselves are 10 kilometers apart; so there’s three of them. For the entire group of projects, yes, we have 100% mineral right interest.

Maurice Jackson: Let’s fast forward to 2018 and discuss your exploration program. What were the results from that program and how has that improved the confidence in the gold project?

Judson Culter: It helped us to better track the iron information. So what we did was we spent the six months from March, when we acquired the project, into October, really to digitize all the historical records. At the time in the 1980s, that was meticulously kept, and it was handwritten. We digitize seven banker boxes of data, as well as three map boxes. Then, we put that in a GPS, and tag the colors and everything else.

Then what we wanted to do to follow on with that data was to run a current, modern-day geophysical program. There were a lot of options to us to do it, but in a really economical manner, but also to do it in a very detailed type formation using a drone. Because the mineralization occurs at or near surface, as well as the iron information itself being at or near surface, it really showed up well on the magnetic survey that we flew over the property. So by interlaying the drill results, as well as the mag survey, our geologist was able to get a better interpretation of the iron formation throughout the project. Really, that really set the stage for where we are going to put the drill when we get to drilling this year in 2019.

Beyond just the iron information, what we also realized about the project is the outcropping on either side is quartz. Historically, the quartz had never been tested for mineralization. So we also did a geochemistry program in October. What that showed us is that the PPM and PPB reading of gold from the quartz outcrop area suggest that it’s also very likely to be a host for gold on this project. It’s never been tested historically. That’s the excitement of 2018 and what’s led into the 2019 drill program, which was always trying to be between March and the end of April. We’re still trying to hold on to that deadline.

We’ve got the collars is ready to go. Right now, we believe what we need to do to start drilling is conduct a small financing that we’ll probably release in the coming week or two here.

Maurice Jackson: So to review the value proposition we had before. This is potentially an open-pitable, early-stage brownfield exploration gold project with historical high-grade resource next to a new cobalt-gold mine, is that correct?

Judson Culter: Yes, and that’s one thing I didn’t touch on is the actual historical resource itself. That’s 85,000 ounces unconfirmed in terms of what our current standards allow us to document as a historical resource. What we’re allowed to document in press releases and everything else is 50,000 ounces of roughly 10 to 12 grams gold per ton. The rest of that 35,000 ounces was never signed off by a Qualified Person, but it is in the NORMIN database in the Northwest Territories. It’s in the areas of the Andrew zone, which we’ve documented. Rover will do the work we need to do under 43-101 standards to take that other 35,000 ounces and get it compliant.

From our side internally, we see it as an 85,000 ounce of resource of 12 grams per ton gold on average. When we talk about it publicly, we have to say, 50,000 from a historical resource perspective, but you’re absolutely right that we’re 20 kilometers away from what’s looking to be Canada’s first cobalt mine. The reason I say that is this project’s been 20 years in the making; it’s at the feasibility stage. I believe they’re really just looking to raise the capital to get to work. It’s an open-pitable cobalt mine. The good news is it’s actually a cobalt gold bismuth. So there is a gold processor that’s going to be built 20 kilometers from us. What better news can you possibly have when you’re developing an at-surface resource?

Maurice Jackson: The location in of itself makes the opportunity quite interesting, but to have open pit to me is icing on the cake. Is the goal to sell the project or develop into a commercial scale mine?

Judson Culter: Definitely the goal is to sell it within the next three years, and so I want to put $10 million in the ground, and let’s get this wrapped up and sold. End of story.

Maurice Jackson: What can you share with us regarding the infrastructure?

Judson Culter: So what you see in Yellowknife right now is what’s going to be coming in the pipeline in the next two to three years in the Pine Point Zinc mine is going back into production and that’s Osisko. Part of that is twining the costs in Taltson Hydro Dam and bringing that into Yellowknife itself, as well as Hay River. There’s going to be federal funding allocated, as well as territorial, to do an environmental study that should be announced through fairly short order this year.

After there is a federally funded environmental study to evaluate the twinning of the Taltson Hydro Dam, a successful outcome will lead into a hydro power upgrade to Yellowknife. When Yellowknife is upgraded, that will free up excess hydro power at the Snare and Strutt Lake hydro dams, located approximately 5km away from Camp Lake, one of our claims that’s part of the Cabin Lake group. That power becomes excess power. All of a sudden that frees up for the future the viability of really selling the project because now you’ve got excess power sitting right there, five kilometers away. How good is that?

Maurice Jackson: Switching gears. Rover Metals’ board of directors and advisors consists of the following people:

Maurice Jackson: Bios for the management time are below:

Maurice Jackson: Let’s discuss some numbers. Please share your capital structure.

Judson Culter: We’ve got 47 million shares out today. That’s our issued and outstanding common shares. There are warrants out there. We have 10 million warrants at $0.20 cents, and 10 million warrants at $0.25 cents.

Maurice Jackson: How much cash and cash equivalents do you have?

Judson Culter: Treasury is sitting today around CA$450,000. Then, there’s been some prepayments for upcoming work commitments regarding our exploration plans for this year, as well as I mentioned, we’re doing a lot of our growth in terms of our marketing and our shareholder base in the United States. I think our prepaid balance, if you were to look at that today, should be around CA$200,000, just in terms of for events, as well as I mentioned, exploration planning. If you add that back to our cash position, we’re around CA$650,000 in current assets.

Maurice Jackson: What is your burn rate?

Judson Culter: Our burn rate’s about CA$30,000 a month, and that just includes all in. We purposely don’t carry an office in this market. We’re a bootstrap company. We have home offices, and then we’re on the road a lot. We’ve got an exploration office that is free from our exploration partner, Aurora Geosciences. That’s really where a lot of the hard work gets done. Then, there’s just no corporate office. I don’t feel the need for that, so that helps.

Maurice Jackson: How much debt do you have?

Judson Culter: We have some trade payables of, I think it’s roughly CA$40,000 that we’re going to settle in shares. Outside of that, we’ve got CA$25,000 in payables on top of that, that we’re going to pay in cash. That’s just some exploration legacy from last year.

Maurice Jackson: Who is financing the project, and what is their level of commitment?

Judson Culter: Just sophisticated mining investors. It’s been high net worth, accredited investors to this point. That will continue until we become a $10 million market cap company plus, because we’re just still not able to access institutional funds, and that’s fine. If Rover does everything that we hope to accomplish in the next drilling phase, which we hope is in the next 60 to 90 day window here, we should be a $10 million market cap plus company; and well on our way to institutional money.

Maurice Jackson: Who are the major shareholders?

Judson Culter: I’m a major shareholder. I’ve been seeding Rover not just with time, but my own money; since really inception in 2014. Tookie Angus, who is an advisor, is currently our third largest shareholder. Then, it really starts to break down to smaller tranches, but there is a notable name on the list: Ashwath Mehra, the chairman of GT Gold; he’s a relatively large shareholder.

Management, including Ron Woo. Ron’s also seeded this company. I think Ron’s probably fourth largest shareholder. Keith Minty’s a large shareholder; 38% of our outstanding shares are owned by insiders, management, board. That’s a good thing because that means our shares are tied up for three years.

Maurice Jackson: Judson, based on the data available, what type of value proposition do we have in comparing?

Judson Culter: Well, the market price, let’s just say, I think it should be $8.5 million, just on what we set out today. That’s my personal opinion. I think later value that, that’s just the reality of reserve stocks in North America. We’re going to do what we need to do to take that historical resource and bring it up to current standards, as well as to just extend where they stopped drilling, and just show them this really is a multimillion ounce potential asset.

I think we can get there with the drill program that we’re planning. We’re planning roughly a thousand meter program. I think the value proposition is we’re in a $3.5 million market cap today. I think we’re going to take it to $10 to 15 million in the next six months. Hold me to that.

Maurice Jackson: I certainly will, sir. Multi-layered question here: what is the next unanswered question for Rover Metals? When can we expect the response? How much will the response cost? What determines success?

Judson Culter: That’s going to be our Q1 or Q2 exploration drill campaign. I was going to caveat that, that is subject to the future success of our financing effort (click here), which we hope to announce in roughly two weeks’ time.

That will lead into confirmation of the historical high-grade gold results, such as the open-pit economics, expand upon the known mineralization in the iron formation, as well as to prove up a larger area play and this is more Q2/Q3 work, for the Slemon Lake, and Camp Lake claims, which are located 10 kilometers northwest from Cabin Lake, and we’ll fly that with an aerial B10 survey. What that will show is that the drilling we’ve done at Cabin Lake in the iron formation really just, those other two claims, or districts, an extension of the same geology, which everything that we’ve read historically shows us it is.

Maurice Jackson: Mr. Culter, please share the contact details for Rover Metals.

Judson Culter: Please visit our website www.RoverMetals.com. On there, you’ll find our social media links, which are LinkedInTwitter, our Facebook page and CEO.ca.

Our social media channels really have daily content. We’re press releasing every couple of weeks, but a lot of our investors like really the daily updates on what’s going on in the Northwest Territory. That’s the best place to stay tuned.

You can also submit to our mailing list. We typically will do an email update every two weeks as well. If you go to the bottom of the homepage on the website, and just submit your email, that subscribes you to our email mailing list.

Maurice Jackson: And last but not least, please visit our website, provenandprobable.com, for mining insights and bullion sales. You may reach us at contact@provenandprobable.com.

Judson Culter of Rover Metals, thank you for joining us today on Proven and Probable.

Maurice Jackson is the founder of Proven and Probable, a site that aims to enrich its subscribers through education in precious metals and junior mining companies that will enrich the world.

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MILES FRANKLIN One Begins to Wonder . . . Will It Ever End?

David’s Commentary:
It should come as no surprise that gold and its sibling, silver, have been pulling back recently. I have written several articles recently that built the case that for gold to move up two things need to happen. The stock market has to fall and the dollar has to fall. For a while, they both did, in unison, and gold and silver moved up nicely. But recently both the stock market and the dollar have been “goosed” up a bit and the result is some profit taking and a pull back for our favorite precious metals. Should we be concerned? I would say yes, IF things have fundamentally changed, but they have NOT. If the stock market’s strength is based primarily on a new trade deal with China, whose economy is a basket case, I expect this will fall apart. If you combine our slowing economy with the problems China is facing, there will be little to support further stock market growth. My feelings that the stock market and the dollar will turn down shortly remain intact. And when that happens, gold and silver will get back on track. You can pick them up now, at a discount, or not. Your call.
Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management, recently spoke with Real Vision to reiterate his concerns about the Chinese economy.
Kyle Bass on China’s dwindling FX reserves:
“We think the number is closer to $2 trillion, instead of $3.2 trillion, which is dangerously below adequate levels. The broad measure of credit in China’s financial system is $48 trillion worth of RMB (Chinese Yuan). They only have $2 trillion of reserves… In their last banking crisis, which was between 1998 and 2002, the loss given defaults were 80% of loans that defaulted and at one point in time… 35% of their entire system was non-paying.”
“What brings this to a head is the current account. When the current account goes negative and the reserve balance is going the other way (going negative), the rubber meets the road there. As long as that balance is increasing annual along with GDP in RMB terms, they can keep going… Now their fiscal balance is… -9.5%. Their current account balance goes negative, and its a secular negativity, then they have more money leaving then coming in and they have to desperately borrow and now they’re changing their laws. They’re saying ‘You know what? Now Westerners can own more than half of our banks. Not a problem…’ Without Western capital flowing into China, China can’t hold this all together… (Chinese President Xi) has made the West think somehow his economic model is superior to that of Western capitalism and it’s all a facade. The whole thing is a mirage. The whole thing is made up with a printing press, keeping a closed capital account, and hoping the world doesn’t notice it…”
This 10:11 minute video clip is a short excerpt from a Real Vision interview. I found it interesting — and although Kyle is 100 percent correct in what he says, he is talking his book, as he’s massively short their equity market, the yuan, or both. It was posted on the soundingline.com Internet site on Monday — and I thank Brad Robertson for sending it along. Another link to it is here.
And then this…
Back in 2017, we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth would keep rising. However, unlike the U.S. where the stock market is the ultimate barometer of the confidence boosting “wealth effect”, in China it has always been about housing as three quarters of Chinese household assets are parked in real estate, compared to only 28% in the U.S., with the remainder invested in financial assets.
“Property accounts for roughly 70 per cent of urban Chinese families’ total assets – a home is both wealth and status. People don’t want prices to increase too fast, but they don’t want them to fall too quickly either,” said Shao Yu, chief economist at Oriental Securities. “People are so used to rising prices that it never occurred to them that they can fall too. We shouldn’t add to this illusion,” Shao added, echoing Ben Bernanke circa 2005.
The bottom line is that just like true price discovery for U.S. capital markets is prohibited (and sees Fed intervention any time there is an even modest, 10-20% drop in asset prices) or else the risk of an all out panic is all too real, in China true price discovery is also not permitted, however when it comes to the country’s all important, and wealth effect boosting, real estate.
Which is a problem, because whereas China suddenly appears to be suffering from all the conventional signs of deflation in the auto retail sector, where as we noted previously, neither lower prices nor easier loans have managed to put a dent the ongoing demand plunge…
… the same ominous price cuts – which are clearly meant to boost flagging demand — are starting to emerge in China’s housing sector.
Case in point, according to China’s Paper, Hui Ka Yan, the Chairman of Evergrande, China’s biggest property developer, and China’s second richest person announced it must ramp up home sales and to do that it would sell all its properties at a 10% discount after its home sales tumbled in January amid a cooling market.
Now that Evergrande is rushing to slash prices, it appears that runaway home prices are no longer a concern for Beijing, and in fact, a far greater concern is how Beijing may intervene to prevent what could soon be a price plunge spiral; many have already speculated that Beijing will have no choice but to bar Evergrande’s sales. If it doesn’t, or if homeowners have already figured out that their home prices are floating in the sky on a bubbly foundation that has now burst, the knock on effect could be devastating as instead of an asset, China’s most popular and aspirational “wealth effect” product could turn into a liability overnight.
If that happens, no amount of intervention by Beijing could stop the avalanche of selling that would ensue, not to mention the deflationary shock wave that a hard landing – i.e. crash – in China’s housing market would launch across the entire world…
No surprises here. This long but worthwhile chart-filled news story was posted on theZero Hedge website at 6:56 p.m. EST yesterday evening — and another link to it ishere. Another ZH article about China showed up on their website at 10:35 p.m. last night — and it’s headlined “Deflationary Red Alert: Chinese Car Dealers Are Slashing Prices, and It’s Not Helping“.
China’s auto industry remains in collapse but what is even more concerning is that new incentives and lower rates are failing to bring rural buyers into showrooms.
As usual, Ed Steer sheds light on the daily manipulation of all the market.
It was the second day in a row where the powers-that-be were very active in the Dow — and the precious metals. The Dow was turned higher around 1:10 p.m. EST — and the precious metals ran into more of Ted’s “night moves” in the thinly-traded afternoon trading session in the Far East. It was all down hill for them from there going into the afternoon gold fix in London…with the exception being palladium, where it ran into ‘something’ a few minutes before noon in New York.
Quoting Bill King from his King Report for today…”stocks tanked on Monday despite the WSJ story that many operators believe was another leak from Team Mnuchin. Perhaps, enough is enough with the U.S.-China trade deal hope and hype stories. They not only appear regularly, but seem to be released quite often on Sunday night near the time when the equity futures begin trading. Please note that over the past few weeks, when stocks are down sharply in the morning, someone appeared at midday or the early afternoon and forced ESHs higher.”
And as reader Mark Barooshian said in an e-mail to me yesterday…”Is this orchestrated sell-off over in the metals?… Why is it always baby steps up — and freight train on the way down?” The answer to the first question is…I don’t know, nor does anyone else. The answer to the second is that it’s what ‘da boyz’ do to maximize their profits…trapping as many Managed Money longs on the losing side as possible.
“There are no markets anymore…only interventions.”
David’s Commentary:
And here are reasons why I believe the recent dollar strength is about to come to an end. A little political pressure goes a long way.
President Donald Trump said Saturday that the U.S. dollar is too strong and took a swipe at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as someone who “likes raising interest rates.”
The dollar was quoted lower against the euro and the yen in early Asia-Pacific trading hours on Monday after Trump’s comments.
The U.S. economy is doing well despite the actions of the central bank, Trump said during a wide-ranging speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference in National Harbor, Maryland.
“I want a strong dollar but I want a dollar that does great for our country, not a dollar that’s so strong that it makes it prohibitive for us to do business with other nations and take their business,” Trump said Saturday.
He didn’t mention Powell by name, but referenced “a gentleman that likes raising interest rates in the Fed, we have a gentleman that loves quantitative tightening in the Fed, we have a gentleman that likes a very strong dollar in the Fed.”
This Bloomberg story was posted on their Internet site on Saturday morning Pacific Standard Time — and updated about twenty-six hours later. I found it embedded in a GATA dispatch — and another link to it is here.
And this too… Dollar death by a thousand cuts.
BRICS Is Creating A Common Payment System
The BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are working on a common payment system BRICS Pay.
The Russian Direct Investment Fund, which coordinates Moscow’s working group on financial services of the BRICS Business Council, has shared the news with Izvestia.
A probable outcome of the project is creation of an online wallet that would combine the payment systems of all BRICS members.
The common wallet will work in the same way as the existing payment services such as Apple Pay or Samsung Pay. A cloud platform created specifically for this project will connect the national payment systems of BRICS countries.
Payment itself is expected to be made via a mobile application regardless of the national currency of the buyer. Countries without membership in BRICS will also be able to use the platform. The pilot project kicks off in South Africa in early April.
David’s Commentary:
This year is the first time in more than 50 years that Susan and I didn’t leave Minneapolis for at least a week or two over the winter. Our 15-year old dog can no longer travel, does not do well when left at a kennel and is way too much of a handful for our kids to manage. We feel a deep responsibility to her and it has marooned us in this unbelievable winter of snow and cold. February logged the most snow on record. Ever! We got over three feet in 28 days. And we are supposed to get more snow starting at the end of this week – five days in a row is possible. Our handyman is coming by tomorrow to shovel snow off of our flat roof. It is nearly two feet high now, before the new snow arrives. In addition to all that snow, it was accompanied by record cold, and countless days below zero. We can survive it, but what happens is that it forces you stay indoors most of the time.
I have to keep reminding myself that warmer weather is just around the corner – and so are higher prices for gold and silver. One really needs to take a longer view of both the weather and precious metals in order to survive the nasties that both can offer up.
I would like to believe that this recent pullback in gold and silver is the final “managed correction” before the big takeoff. The fundamentals that were so kind to the metals have not changed. As usual, it’s the buying and selling of future contracts by the big banks and hedge funds on Comex that move the markets in the short-term. If nothing fundamental has changed, then, like the lousy February in Minneapolis, things will soon get back to normal.
All of this harsh weather got me to thinking. How did the Indians endure Minnesota’s extreme weather? According to a recent article I read, meteorological studies suggest that from 1600 to 1850 the climate generally was colder and wetter than now. How did the half a dozen tribes that populated this area survive? They lived in houses made out of birch bark, which never molds. They would build a pit in the middle of the floor with rocks buried underneath the floor. When the rocks were heated, it would radiate the warmth throughout the house.
There were variations of houses on the reservations. The typical lodge style dwelling would be constructed with trees natural to their regions. Sharpened logs were thrust into the ground and then bent and tied similar to an upside-down basket. The framework was covered with bark, and animal skins were used to cover the door and chimney hole.
Pole wigwams in the form of teepees were also constructed. People greased themselves in oil and animal fat to protect against the sun and cold.
Native people also prepared for harsh storms by forecasting them. My wife uses the six o’clock weather report on Fox News. But for the Indians, if the wind brought clouds from the north, it meant a blizzard. Woodpeckers sharing a tree or nest meant a harsh winter was coming.
I have trouble surviving a 100-yard trek up our driveway every morning to get the paper – even dressed to the hilt in a winter parka and boots and gloves. It’s the mental part of surviving the winter that is the most difficult, just like it’s the mental part of surviving the constant take down of gold and silver. One begins to wonder, will it ever end? Yes, sunny days and warm weather will be here in a month and the gold and silver prices will rebound shortly as well. But when you are freezing your ass off, or wake up to see that gold is down $20 it is depressing.
As it so happens, I will have some extra money coming my way in a week. Like you, I ask myself, what should I do with it? That is a question that has different answers, depending on one’s age, finances and portfolio. In my case, I know this much – even though I have a large precious metals portfolio, I would still rather add to it, especially after a pull back like this one, than put it into a stretched-to-the-hilt stock market. Cash is good, but how much can you keep in cash? I think I’ll do the silver, gold and cash thing. I’ll spread it around a bit.
The five years Susan and I spent in Miami in the winter was great, at least weather wise, and I fully expect to bask in the sun of a precious metals bull market soon too. Everything cycles and the metals up-cycle is close at hand. All it will take is a dollar pullback and/or a stock market plunge, and I expect that both are coming. I wish it were here now – that would make this uncommonly harsh winter much easier to take.
My car in front of a snowdrift!
About Miles Franklin
Miles Franklin was founded in January, 1990 by David MILES Schectman. David’s son, Andy Schectman, our CEO, joined Miles Franklin in 1991. Miles Franklin’s primary focus from 1990 through 1998 was the Swiss Annuity and we were one of the two top firms in the industry. In November, 2000, we decided to de-emphasize our focus on off-shore investing and moved primarily into gold and silver, which we felt were about to enter into a long-term bull market cycle. Our timing and our new direction proved to be the right thing to do.
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